Apple · Recorded example
The figures. The assumptions. The context.
These are the TickerLens calculations shown in the video, captured on 5 Sep 2026. They are a dated example; the current page may show different prices, data or results.
Model: Revenue-Driven FCFF
Starting financial period: TTM ending 27 Jun 2026
All prices and estimates are US dollars per share. The video uses the model’s reference price consistently.
Captured model price
$319.97
Base estimate
$120.39
Bull estimate
$173.93
What changes between Base and Bull?
The Bull case changes several assumptions together. The resulting estimate still sits below the captured price under those assumptions.
| Assumption | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth · years 1–2 | 7.22% | 9.02% |
| Revenue growth · years 3–10 | 3.97% | 4.96% |
| Operating margin · year 10 | 30% | 35% |
| Discount rate (WACC) | 10.64% | 9.64% |
| Terminal growth | 2% | 2.5% |
These are selected drivers, not every input. Valuation also depends on tax, capital spending, working capital, shares and the balance-sheet adjustment. A model estimate is not an objective verdict on what Apple must be worth.
What does 18.18% mean?
The reverse calculation solves for the constant annual revenue growth rate that matches the captured $319.97 price over 10 years, with the other Base assumptions held fixed.
It is a model implication, not a forecast. It is not a share-price return, and it does not change to the Bull assumptions when the Bull estimate is selected.
Why compare it with 8.68%?
Apple reported total net sales of $274.515B in FY2020 and $416.161B in FY2025. Compounding across those five fiscal-year intervals gives 8.68% annual revenue growth.
(416,161 ÷ 274,515)1/5 − 1 = 8.68%. Revenue inputs are USD millions.
This is historical context for the model’s next ten years. The time periods differ, and past growth does not limit future growth. The live site’s separate 3.28% comparison covers four years; it is not the five-year rate used in this film.
Sources: Apple FY2020 annual report and Apple FY2025 annual report. The calculation uses unrounded reported net sales; the product table displays rounded billions.
The business behind the example
The captured period shows $466.82B revenue and $128.93B reported net income. Operating cash flow of $146.72B less $10.04B capital spending leaves $136.68B free cash flow. Accounting profit and cash flow are different measures.
The film’s margin-of-safety diagram is conceptual. It shows a purchase price below a conservative value estimate, with the difference providing room for estimation error. It contains no Apple target price and does not identify the Bull scenario as conservative. A margin of safety cannot guarantee a return or prevent a loss.