Reading the tape
NYSE: AA
Alcoa Corporation
Basic Materials · Aluminum
Market Cap
$16.67B
52w High
$75.70
52w Low
$25.78
P/E
16.25
Volume
2.03M
Outstanding Shares
263.89M
Price vs Fundamentals
Why The Stock Is Moving
Momentum disconnected from fundamentalsHigh confidence
1Y Price: 145.65%Revenue (TTM): -1.99%FCF (TTM): -17.53%P/FCF: 88th pct
What changed
The stock rose 145.65% over the last year. Revenue declined 1.99% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 16.28% to 6.66%. Free cash flow declined 17.53% over the trailing twelve months.
What the market seems to be pricing
The stock is rising despite deteriorating fundamentals and now sits at the 88th percentile of its historical P/FCF range. This is a momentum-driven move — the market may be front-running a recovery that has not yet appeared in reported numbers.
What would invalidate this read
Operating margin (currently 6.66%) would need to stabilize or improve to justify the move. Revenue is declining 1.99% — a trend reversal in the next report would be the key signal to watch. This read is wrong if the next period shows operating metrics turning the corner. At that point the price would be anticipating real improvement rather than running ahead of it.
Company profile
Alcoa Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells bauxite, alumina, and aluminum products in the United States, Spain, Australia, Iceland, Norway, Brazil, Canada, and internationally.
CEOWilliam F. Oplinger
SectorBasic Materials
IndustryAluminum
Employees13,900
IPO dateNov 1, 2016
Valuation
Forward P/E—
EV/EBITDA8.00
Enterprise value$14.92B
Stock splits
Nov 1, 2016↑ Forward
Every 801 shares became 1000
Oct 6, 2016↓ Reverse
Every 3 shares became 1
Jun 12, 2000↑ Forward
Every 1 shares became 2
Feb 26, 1999↑ Forward
Every 1 shares became 2
Feb 27, 1995↑ Forward
Every 1 shares became 2
Feb 23, 1981↑ Forward
Every 1 shares became 2
Feb 4, 1974↑ Forward
Every 2 shares became 3
Profitability & growth
Revenue growth-2.47%
Gross margin12.87%▲10.42%vs FY2024
Operating margin6.66%▼20.33%vs FY2024
ROE18.76%▲1512.79%vs FY2024
Analyst consensus
RatingBuy
Target price$69.20▲9.55%
22
Buy
19
Hold
1
Sell
Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.
Earnings
Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.
Next report
Jul 15, 2026
Q3 FY26 · EPS est $2.11 · Revenue est $3.96B
View
Dividends
$0.40/shareQuarterlyDividend Achiever · 11yrEx-div May 19, 2026 · in 9dSafeAA pays a dividend with a 0.63% declared yield, 11 consecutive years of growth, growing at 3.33% annually, covered 5.4× by free cash flow.
Declared Yield
0.63%
Annual Div / Share
$0.40
5yr CAGR
+3.33%
Doubles every ~21.2yr
Payout Ratio
10.34%
Safe
Dividend Growth Rate
3yr CAGR
+0%
5yr CAGR
+3.33%
10yr CAGR
+3.33%
Dividend Safety
10/10Safe
Dividend History
Annualized dividend cycles per share
YearAnnual DivYoY
2026$0.40+0.0%
2025$0.40+0.0%
2024$0.40+0.0%
2023$0.40+2.6%
2022$0.39+35.2%
2016$0.29+0.0%
2015$0.29+0.0%
Income Projection
Invest
$
Growth rate:
Reinvest dividends
Today
$6/yr
$1/mo
In 5 yrs
$7/yr+18%
$1/mo
In 10 yrs
$9/yr+39%
$1/mo
| Today | In 5 yrs | In 10 yrs |
|---|---|---|
$6/yr $1/mo | $7/yr+18% $1/mo | $9/yr+39% $1/mo |
Yield-on-cost grows from 0.63% → 0.88% over 10yr
Analysis
Dividend Strengths
Dividend Achiever
AA has raised its dividend for 11 consecutive years — qualifying as a Dividend Achiever, demonstrating long-term commitment to shareholder income.
Well-covered by free cash flow
The dividend is covered 5.4× by free cash flow, indicating the company generates sufficient cash to sustain and potentially grow the payout without straining its finances.
Risks to Watch
No strong risk signal stands out from the latest period pair.