NASDAQ · ADSK

Autodesk, Inc.

Technology · Software - Application

$220.31▼ 2.73% ($6.19)at close

After hours$220.52▲ 0.10%4:28 PM ET

52-week

$185.50$326.71

Market cap

What the market price implies · Reverse DCF

To support a price of $220.31, this model requires revenue to grow by 12.16%/yr over the next 10 years, compounded annually.

Historical revenue grew by 13.22%/yr over the past 4 years. The required annual growth rate is 1.06 percentage points lower.

Selected forecast · Base scenario

8.68%/yr · actual 10-year annualized revenue growth

Year 1 growth: 13.6%

Market-implied · Base operating assumptions + edited margins

12.16%/yr · flat 10-year annualized revenue growth

Reverse DCF solves revenue growth itself using Base operating assumptions and your edited margins. Changing forecast growth alone does not change the implied rate. This is a model-implied requirement, not an analyst forecast.

Valuation

Recommended · Revenue & margin DCF

Price used

$220.31

Estimated value / share

$172.99

Base scenario

This estimate is 21.48% below the price used.

USD · TTM ending 2026-07-31

Year 1 growth 13.6% · Ending margin 30% · Discount rate 11.58%

Assumption scenarios, not statistical confidence intervals.

Method, dates & sources

Estimated from future revenue, operating margins, and the investment needed to support them.

Price timestamp: Sep 16, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC
Financial statement period: TTM ending 2026-07-31
Data refreshed: Sep 16, 2026, 8:39 PM UTC · provider

Why this method?

FCFF is positive, but the series is too unstable to anchor a direct cash-flow CAGR and the business still fails the steady-state comparability checks. Use a revenue-and-margin transition model instead of normalizing and compounding current FCFF.

Is FCFF positive and has it been for 3+ consecutive years? 8 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Is FCFF stable (not swinging >30% year to year)? The largest recent FCFF swing is 96.6%.

Do you have 5+ years of positive FCFF history? 8 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Is the business model structurally similar to what it should be in 10 years? Revenue is still growing 16.1%, above the 15.0% maturity threshold, so a steady-state FCFF model would lean too heavily on a business still scaling.

Price vs Fundamentals

Why The Stock Is Moving

Likely multiple compressionHigh confidence

1Y Price: -30.83%Revenue (TTM): 17.94%FCF (TTM): 50.32%P/FCF: 0th pct

What changed

The stock fell 30.83% over the last year. Revenue grew 17.94% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 22.94% to 27.55%. Free cash flow grew 50.32% over the trailing twelve months.

What the market seems to be pricing

Visible fundamentals weakened far less than the stock price, and the shares now sit around the 0th percentile of their historical P/FCF range. That looks more like a rerating of the multiple than a collapse in the business.

What would invalidate this read

This read changes if operating margin (currently 27.55%) continues to decline, or if revenue growth turns negative. The bull case requires the business to hold its current trajectory.

Performance

Return analysis

Company profile

Autodesk, Inc. delivers advanced software and services for 3D design, engineering, and entertainment to a global clientele.

CEOAndrew Anagnost

SectorTechnology

IndustrySoftware - Application

Employees14,300

IPO dateJun 28, 1985

https://www.autodesk.com

Market multiples

Forward P/E—

EV/EBITDA30.23

Enterprise value$54.35B

Stock splits

Dec 21, 2004↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

Apr 19, 2002↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

Oct 31, 1994↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

Mar 30, 1987↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 3

+200%

Profitability & growth

Revenue growth16.05%

Gross margin (FY2026)90.98%▲0.4ppvs FY2025

Operating margin (FY2026)24.9%▲2.6ppvs FY2025

ROE53.85%▲14.2ppvs FY2026

Analyst consensus

RatingBuy

Target price$303.13▲37.59%

Buy

Hold

Sell

Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.

Earnings

Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.

Next report

Nov 24, 2026

Q4 FY26 · EPS est $3.07 · Revenue est $2.13B

View

NASDAQ · ADSK

Autodesk, Inc.

Technology · Software - Application

$220.31▼ 2.73% ($6.19)at close

After hours$220.52▲ 0.10%4:28 PM ET

52-week

$185.50$326.71

Market cap

What the market price implies · Reverse DCF

To support a price of $220.31, this model requires revenue to grow by 12.16%/yr over the next 10 years, compounded annually.

Historical revenue grew by 13.22%/yr over the past 4 years. The required annual growth rate is 1.06 percentage points lower.

Selected forecast · Base scenario

8.68%/yr · actual 10-year annualized revenue growth

Year 1 growth: 13.6%

Market-implied · Base operating assumptions + edited margins

12.16%/yr · flat 10-year annualized revenue growth

Valuation

Recommended · Revenue & margin DCF

Price used

$220.31

Estimated value / share

$172.99

Base scenario

This estimate is 21.48% below the price used.

USD · TTM ending 2026-07-31

Year 1 growth 13.6% · Ending margin 30% · Discount rate 11.58%

Assumption scenarios, not statistical confidence intervals.

Method, dates & sources

Estimated from future revenue, operating margins, and the investment needed to support them.

Price timestamp: Sep 16, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC
Financial statement period: TTM ending 2026-07-31
Data refreshed: Sep 16, 2026, 8:39 PM UTC · provider

Why this method?

Is FCFF positive and has it been for 3+ consecutive years? 8 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Is FCFF stable (not swinging >30% year to year)? The largest recent FCFF swing is 96.6%.

Do you have 5+ years of positive FCFF history? 8 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Price vs Fundamentals

Why The Stock Is Moving

Likely multiple compressionHigh confidence

1Y Price: -30.83%Revenue (TTM): 17.94%FCF (TTM): 50.32%P/FCF: 0th pct

What changed

What the market seems to be pricing

What would invalidate this read

This read changes if operating margin (currently 27.55%) continues to decline, or if revenue growth turns negative. The bull case requires the business to hold its current trajectory.

Performance

Return analysis

Company profile

Autodesk, Inc. delivers advanced software and services for 3D design, engineering, and entertainment to a global clientele.

CEOAndrew Anagnost

SectorTechnology

IndustrySoftware - Application

Employees14,300

IPO dateJun 28, 1985

https://www.autodesk.com

Market multiples

Forward P/E—

EV/EBITDA30.23

Enterprise value$54.35B

Stock splits

Dec 21, 2004↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

Apr 19, 2002↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

Oct 31, 1994↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

Mar 30, 1987↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 3

+200%

Profitability & growth

Revenue growth16.05%

Gross margin (FY2026)90.98%▲0.4ppvs FY2025

Operating margin (FY2026)24.9%▲2.6ppvs FY2025

ROE53.85%▲14.2ppvs FY2026

Analyst consensus

RatingBuy

Target price$303.13▲37.59%

Buy

Hold

Sell

Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.

Earnings

Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.

Next report

Nov 24, 2026

Q4 FY26 · EPS est $3.07 · Revenue est $2.13B

View