NYSE · AEO

American Eagle Outfitters, Inc.

Consumer Cyclical · Apparel - Retail

$15.05▲ 0.94% ($0.14)at close

After hours$15.10▲ 0.33%8:00 PM ET

52-week

$14.06$28.46

What the market price implies · Reverse DCF

To support a price of $15.05, this model requires revenue to grow by -5.39%/yr over the next 10 years, compounded annually.

Historical revenue grew by 2.34%/yr over the past 4 years. The required annual growth rate is 7.73 percentage points lower.

Selected forecast · Base scenario

2.78%/yr · actual 10-year annualized revenue growth

Year 1 growth: 4.34%

Market-implied · Base operating assumptions + edited margins

-5.39%/yr · flat 10-year annualized revenue growth

Reverse DCF solves revenue growth itself using Base operating assumptions and your edited margins. Changing forecast growth alone does not change the implied rate. This is a model-implied requirement, not an analyst forecast.

Valuation

Recommended · Revenue & margin DCF

Price used

$15.05

Estimated value / share

$23.28

Base scenario

This estimate is 54.67% above the price used.

USD · TTM ending 2026-08-01

Year 1 growth 4.34% · Ending margin 9.82% · Discount rate 12.22%

Assumption scenarios, not statistical confidence intervals.

Method, dates & sources

Estimated from future revenue, operating margins, and the investment needed to support them.

Price timestamp: Sep 18, 2026, 7:59 PM UTC
Financial statement period: TTM ending 2026-08-01
Data refreshed: Sep 20, 2026, 10:16 AM UTC · provider

Why this method?

There is not a stable run of positive FCFF to anchor a direct cash-flow CAGR, so the model should start from revenue and margin assumptions instead.

Is FCFF positive and has it been for 3+ consecutive years? Latest FCFF is not positive.

Price vs Fundamentals

Why The Stock Is Moving

Mixed / unclearLow confidence

1Y Price: -23.63%Revenue (TTM): 8.21%FCF (TTM): -40.72%P/FCF: 54th pct

What changed

The stock fell 23.63% over the last year. Revenue grew 8.21% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 5.71% to 9.34%. Free cash flow declined 40.72% over the trailing twelve months.

What the market seems to be pricing

The stock has moved lower against modestly improving underlying metrics. The operating data does not yet tell a clear story — the move may reflect sentiment, sector rotation, or macro factors rather than company-specific earnings power.

What would invalidate this read

Operating margin currently stands at 9.34%. A decisive move in revenue — currently up 8.21% — would be the clearest signal to resolve the ambiguity.

Performance

Return analysis

Company profile

American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. (AEO) operates as a distinct fashion and lifestyle retail enterprise, offering a wide array of clothing, accessories, and personal care items.

CEOJay L. Schottenstein

SectorConsumer Cyclical

IndustryApparel - Retail

Employees45,000

IPO dateApr 14, 1994

https://www.aeo-inc.com

Market multiples

Forward P/E—

EV/EBITDA11.83

Enterprise value$5.51B

Stock splits

Dec 19, 2006↑ Forward

Every 2 shares became 3

+50%

Mar 8, 2005↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

Feb 26, 2001↑ Forward

Every 2 shares became 3

+50%

May 4, 1999↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

May 11, 1998↑ Forward

Every 2 shares became 3

+50%

Jan 6, 1998↑ Forward

Every 2 shares became 3

+50%

Profitability & growth

Revenue growth7.53%

Gross margin (FY2025)32.99%▼2.3ppvs FY2024

Operating margin (FY2025)5.96%▼2.5ppvs FY2024

ROE20.36%▲9.3ppvs FY2025

Analyst consensus

RatingHold

Target price$19.67▲30.70%

Buy

Hold

Sell

Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.

Earnings

Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.

Next report

Dec 1, 2026

Q4 FY26 · EPS est $0.50 · Revenue est $1.45B

View

Dividends

$0.50/shareQuarterlyEx-div Oct 9, 2026 · in 19dSafe

AEO pays a dividend with a 3.32% declared yield, growing at 12.7% annually, covered 2.3× by free cash flow.

Declared Yield

3.32%

Annual Div / Share

$0.50

5yr CAGR

+12.7%

Doubles every ~5.8yr

Payout Ratio

37.72%

Safe

Dividend Growth Rate

3yr CAGR

+11.57%

5yr CAGR

+12.7%

10yr CAGR

+0%

Dividend Safety

10/10Safe

Dividend History

Annual dividends paid per share

YearAnnual DivYoY

2025$0.50+0.0%

2024$0.50+66.7%

2023$0.30-16.7%

2022$0.36-55.8%

2021$0.82+196.4%

2020$0.28-33.3%

2019$0.41-25.0%

Income Projection

Invest

USD

Growth rate:

Reinvest dividends

Today

$33/yr

$3/mo

In 5 yrs

$59/yr+76%

$5/mo

In 10 yrs

$103/yr+211%

$9/mo

Today	In 5 yrs	In 10 yrs
$33/yr $3/mo	$59/yr+76% $5/mo	$103/yr+211% $9/mo

Long-range projections use a capped 12% annual growth assumption.

Yield-on-cost grows from 3.32% → 10.32% over 10yr

Analysis

Dividend Strengths

Well-covered by free cash flow

The dividend is covered 2.3× by free cash flow, indicating the company generates sufficient cash to sustain and potentially grow the payout without straining its finances.

Strong dividend growth rate

The 5-year CAGR of 12.7% meaningfully outpaces inflation, compounding real income growth for long-term holders.

Risks to Watch

No strong risk signal stands out from the latest period pair.

NYSE · AEO

American Eagle Outfitters, Inc.

Consumer Cyclical · Apparel - Retail

$15.05▲ 0.94% ($0.14)at close

After hours$15.10▲ 0.33%8:00 PM ET

52-week

$14.06$28.46

What the market price implies · Reverse DCF

To support a price of $15.05, this model requires revenue to grow by -5.39%/yr over the next 10 years, compounded annually.

Historical revenue grew by 2.34%/yr over the past 4 years. The required annual growth rate is 7.73 percentage points lower.

Selected forecast · Base scenario

2.78%/yr · actual 10-year annualized revenue growth

Year 1 growth: 4.34%

Market-implied · Base operating assumptions + edited margins

-5.39%/yr · flat 10-year annualized revenue growth

Valuation

Recommended · Revenue & margin DCF

Price used

$15.05

Estimated value / share

$23.28

Base scenario

This estimate is 54.67% above the price used.

USD · TTM ending 2026-08-01

Year 1 growth 4.34% · Ending margin 9.82% · Discount rate 12.22%

Assumption scenarios, not statistical confidence intervals.

Method, dates & sources

Estimated from future revenue, operating margins, and the investment needed to support them.

Price timestamp: Sep 18, 2026, 7:59 PM UTC
Financial statement period: TTM ending 2026-08-01
Data refreshed: Sep 20, 2026, 10:16 AM UTC · provider

Why this method?

There is not a stable run of positive FCFF to anchor a direct cash-flow CAGR, so the model should start from revenue and margin assumptions instead.

Is FCFF positive and has it been for 3+ consecutive years? Latest FCFF is not positive.

Price vs Fundamentals

Why The Stock Is Moving

Mixed / unclearLow confidence

1Y Price: -23.63%Revenue (TTM): 8.21%FCF (TTM): -40.72%P/FCF: 54th pct

What changed

What the market seems to be pricing

What would invalidate this read

Operating margin currently stands at 9.34%. A decisive move in revenue — currently up 8.21% — would be the clearest signal to resolve the ambiguity.

Performance

Return analysis

Company profile

American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. (AEO) operates as a distinct fashion and lifestyle retail enterprise, offering a wide array of clothing, accessories, and personal care items.

CEOJay L. Schottenstein

SectorConsumer Cyclical

IndustryApparel - Retail

Employees45,000

IPO dateApr 14, 1994

https://www.aeo-inc.com

Market multiples

Forward P/E—

EV/EBITDA11.83

Enterprise value$5.51B

Stock splits

Dec 19, 2006↑ Forward

Every 2 shares became 3

+50%

Mar 8, 2005↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

Feb 26, 2001↑ Forward

Every 2 shares became 3

+50%

May 4, 1999↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

May 11, 1998↑ Forward

Every 2 shares became 3

+50%

Jan 6, 1998↑ Forward

Every 2 shares became 3

+50%

Profitability & growth

Revenue growth7.53%

Gross margin (FY2025)32.99%▼2.3ppvs FY2024

Operating margin (FY2025)5.96%▼2.5ppvs FY2024

ROE20.36%▲9.3ppvs FY2025

Analyst consensus

RatingHold

Target price$19.67▲30.70%

Buy

Hold

Sell

Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.

Earnings

Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.

Next report

Dec 1, 2026

Q4 FY26 · EPS est $0.50 · Revenue est $1.45B

View

Dividends

$0.50/shareQuarterlyEx-div Oct 9, 2026 · in 19dSafe

AEO pays a dividend with a 3.32% declared yield, growing at 12.7% annually, covered 2.3× by free cash flow.

Declared Yield

3.32%

Annual Div / Share

$0.50

5yr CAGR

+12.7%

Doubles every ~5.8yr

Payout Ratio

37.72%

Safe

Dividend Growth Rate

3yr CAGR

+11.57%

5yr CAGR

+12.7%

10yr CAGR

+0%

Dividend Safety

10/10Safe

Dividend History

Annual dividends paid per share

YearAnnual DivYoY

2025$0.50+0.0%

2024$0.50+66.7%

2023$0.30-16.7%

2022$0.36-55.8%

2021$0.82+196.4%

2020$0.28-33.3%

2019$0.41-25.0%

Income Projection

Invest

USD

Growth rate:

Reinvest dividends

Today

$33/yr

$3/mo

In 5 yrs

$59/yr+76%

$5/mo

In 10 yrs

$103/yr+211%

$9/mo

Today	In 5 yrs	In 10 yrs
$33/yr $3/mo	$59/yr+76% $5/mo	$103/yr+211% $9/mo

Long-range projections use a capped 12% annual growth assumption.

Yield-on-cost grows from 3.32% → 10.32% over 10yr

Analysis

Dividend Strengths

Well-covered by free cash flow

The dividend is covered 2.3× by free cash flow, indicating the company generates sufficient cash to sustain and potentially grow the payout without straining its finances.

Strong dividend growth rate

The 5-year CAGR of 12.7% meaningfully outpaces inflation, compounding real income growth for long-term holders.

Risks to Watch

No strong risk signal stands out from the latest period pair.