NYSE · AES

The AES Corporation

Utilities · Diversified Utilities

$14.87▲ 0.37% ($0.05)today

As of 11:23 AM ET

52-week

$12.52$17.65

Market cap

$10.60B

P/E

What the market price implies · Reverse DCF

Historical revenue grew by 2.36%/yr over the past 4 years.

Selected forecast · Base scenario

4.65%/yr · actual 10-year annualized revenue growth

Year 1 growth: 7.29%

Market-implied · Base operating assumptions + edited margins

Unavailable · flat 10-year annualized revenue growth

Reverse DCF solves revenue growth itself using Base operating assumptions and your edited margins. Changing forecast growth alone does not change the implied rate. This is a model-implied requirement, not an analyst forecast.

No supported revenue growth rate matches this price with these operating assumptions.

Valuation

Recommended · Revenue & margin DCF

Price used

$14.87

Estimated value / share

Unavailable

Base scenario

USD · TTM ending 2026-06-30

Enterprise value of $11.13B does not cover net debt, preferred stock and minority interest of $38.15B, so equity value is negative and no fair value per share can be shown. The projected cash flows are positive; the shortfall is in the equity bridge, not the forecast. This engine cannot separate captive-finance or other non-operating borrowings from operating debt.

Latest quarterly growth differs materially from the latest annual pace. It remains an observed growth input; review whether acceleration or a change in the business explains it.

Year 1 growth 7.29% · Ending margin 6% · Discount rate 5.52%

Assumption scenarios, not statistical confidence intervals.

Method, dates & sources

Estimated from future revenue, operating margins, and the investment needed to support them.

Price timestamp: Sep 17, 2026, 3:23 PM UTC
Financial statement period: TTM ending 2026-06-30
Data refreshed: Sep 17, 2026, 2:22 PM UTC · cache

Why this method?

There is not a stable run of positive FCFF to anchor a direct cash-flow CAGR, so the model should start from revenue and margin assumptions instead.

Is FCFF positive and has it been for 3+ consecutive years? Latest FCFF is not positive.

Price vs Fundamentals

Why The Stock Is Moving

Fundamentals are supporting the moveHigh confidence

1Y Price: 18.59%Revenue (TTM): 8.49%FCF (TTM): 32.58%P/E: 9th pct

What changed

The stock rose 18.59% over the last year. Revenue grew 8.49% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 14.64% to 17.48%. Free cash flow grew 32.58% over the trailing twelve months.

What the market seems to be pricing

The stock move broadly lines up with stronger business momentum, and the shares are still only around the 9th percentile of their historical P/E range.

What would invalidate this read

Operating margin is at 17.48%. Revenue grew 8.49% — this thesis depends on that trajectory holding. If revenue growth, margins, or free cash flow roll over while the stock keeps climbing, more of the move would be coming from multiple expansion than business progress.

Performance

Return analysis

Company profile

The AES Corporation operates as an international enterprise primarily focused on electricity generation and distribution.

CEOAndres Ricardo Gluski Weilert

SectorUtilities

IndustryDiversified Utilities

Employees8,336

IPO dateJun 26, 1991

https://www.aes.com

Market multiples

Forward P/E—

EV/EBITDA13.09

Enterprise value$38.46B

Stock splits

Jun 2, 2000↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

Aug 29, 1997↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

Mar 4, 1994↑ Forward

Every 100 shares became 103

+3%

Feb 1, 1994↑ Forward

Every 2 shares became 3

+50%

Profitability & growth

Revenue growth19.86%

Gross margin (FY2025)18.07%▼0.8ppvs FY2024

Operating margin (FY2025)16.1%▼0.4ppvs FY2024

ROE45.92%▲27.9ppvs FY2025

Analyst consensus

RatingHold

Target price$18.75▲26.14%

Buy

Hold

Sell

Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.

Earnings

Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.

Next report

Nov 3, 2026

Q4 FY26 · EPS est $0.53 · Revenue est $3.45B

View

Dividends

$0.70/shareQuarterlyDividend Achiever · 14yrAt Risk

AES pays a dividend with a 4.73% dividend yield, 14 consecutive years of growth, growing at 3.42% annually, covered -3.2× by free cash flow.

Dividend Yield

4.73%

Annual Div / Share

$0.70

5yr CAGR

+3.42%

Doubles every ~20.6yr

Payout Ratio

26.31%

At Risk

Dividend Growth Rate

3yr CAGR

+2.39%

5yr CAGR

+3.42%

10yr CAGR

+5.05%

Dividend Safety

5/10At Risk

Dividend History

Annualized dividend cycles per share

YearAnnual DivYoY

2026$0.70+0.5%

2025$0.70+2.5%

2024$0.68+4.2%

2023$0.66+5.0%

2022$0.62+5.0%

2021$0.59+5.0%

2020$0.57+5.0%

Income Projection

Invest

USD

Growth rate:

Reinvest dividends

Today

$47/yr

$4/mo

In 5 yrs

$56/yr+18%

$5/mo

In 10 yrs

$66/yr+40%

$6/mo

Today	In 5 yrs	In 10 yrs
$47/yr $4/mo	$56/yr+18% $5/mo	$66/yr+40% $6/mo

Yield-on-cost grows from 4.73% → 6.63% over 10yr

Analysis

Dividend Strengths

Dividend Achiever

AES has raised its dividend for 14 consecutive years — qualifying as a Dividend Achiever, demonstrating long-term commitment to shareholder income.

Risks to Watch

Dividend exceeds free cash flow

Free cash flow covers only -3.24× the dividend. The company is paying out more than it generates in cash, which is unsustainable without borrowing or asset sales.

NYSE · AES

The AES Corporation

Utilities · Diversified Utilities

$14.87▲ 0.37% ($0.05)today

As of 11:23 AM ET

52-week

$12.52$17.65

Market cap

$10.60B

P/E

What the market price implies · Reverse DCF

Historical revenue grew by 2.36%/yr over the past 4 years.

Selected forecast · Base scenario

4.65%/yr · actual 10-year annualized revenue growth

Year 1 growth: 7.29%

Market-implied · Base operating assumptions + edited margins

Unavailable · flat 10-year annualized revenue growth

No supported revenue growth rate matches this price with these operating assumptions.

Valuation

Recommended · Revenue & margin DCF

Price used

$14.87

Estimated value / share

Unavailable

Base scenario

USD · TTM ending 2026-06-30

Latest quarterly growth differs materially from the latest annual pace. It remains an observed growth input; review whether acceleration or a change in the business explains it.

Year 1 growth 7.29% · Ending margin 6% · Discount rate 5.52%

Assumption scenarios, not statistical confidence intervals.

Method, dates & sources

Estimated from future revenue, operating margins, and the investment needed to support them.

Price timestamp: Sep 17, 2026, 3:23 PM UTC
Financial statement period: TTM ending 2026-06-30
Data refreshed: Sep 17, 2026, 2:22 PM UTC · cache

Why this method?

There is not a stable run of positive FCFF to anchor a direct cash-flow CAGR, so the model should start from revenue and margin assumptions instead.

Is FCFF positive and has it been for 3+ consecutive years? Latest FCFF is not positive.

Price vs Fundamentals

Why The Stock Is Moving

Fundamentals are supporting the moveHigh confidence

1Y Price: 18.59%Revenue (TTM): 8.49%FCF (TTM): 32.58%P/E: 9th pct

What changed

The stock rose 18.59% over the last year. Revenue grew 8.49% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 14.64% to 17.48%. Free cash flow grew 32.58% over the trailing twelve months.

What the market seems to be pricing

The stock move broadly lines up with stronger business momentum, and the shares are still only around the 9th percentile of their historical P/E range.

What would invalidate this read

Performance

Return analysis

Company profile

The AES Corporation operates as an international enterprise primarily focused on electricity generation and distribution.

CEOAndres Ricardo Gluski Weilert

SectorUtilities

IndustryDiversified Utilities

Employees8,336

IPO dateJun 26, 1991

https://www.aes.com

Market multiples

Forward P/E—

EV/EBITDA13.09

Enterprise value$38.46B

Stock splits

Jun 2, 2000↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

Aug 29, 1997↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

Mar 4, 1994↑ Forward

Every 100 shares became 103

+3%

Feb 1, 1994↑ Forward

Every 2 shares became 3

+50%

Profitability & growth

Revenue growth19.86%

Gross margin (FY2025)18.07%▼0.8ppvs FY2024

Operating margin (FY2025)16.1%▼0.4ppvs FY2024

ROE45.92%▲27.9ppvs FY2025

Analyst consensus

RatingHold

Target price$18.75▲26.14%

Buy

Hold

Sell

Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.

Earnings

Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.

Next report

Nov 3, 2026

Q4 FY26 · EPS est $0.53 · Revenue est $3.45B

View

Dividends

$0.70/shareQuarterlyDividend Achiever · 14yrAt Risk

AES pays a dividend with a 4.73% dividend yield, 14 consecutive years of growth, growing at 3.42% annually, covered -3.2× by free cash flow.

Dividend Yield

4.73%

Annual Div / Share

$0.70

5yr CAGR

+3.42%

Doubles every ~20.6yr

Payout Ratio

26.31%

At Risk

Dividend Growth Rate

3yr CAGR

+2.39%

5yr CAGR

+3.42%

10yr CAGR

+5.05%

Dividend Safety

5/10At Risk

Dividend History

Annualized dividend cycles per share

YearAnnual DivYoY

2026$0.70+0.5%

2025$0.70+2.5%

2024$0.68+4.2%

2023$0.66+5.0%

2022$0.62+5.0%

2021$0.59+5.0%

2020$0.57+5.0%

Income Projection

Invest

USD

Growth rate:

Reinvest dividends

Today

$47/yr

$4/mo

In 5 yrs

$56/yr+18%

$5/mo

In 10 yrs

$66/yr+40%

$6/mo

Today	In 5 yrs	In 10 yrs
$47/yr $4/mo	$56/yr+18% $5/mo	$66/yr+40% $6/mo

Yield-on-cost grows from 4.73% → 6.63% over 10yr

Analysis

Dividend Strengths

Dividend Achiever

AES has raised its dividend for 14 consecutive years — qualifying as a Dividend Achiever, demonstrating long-term commitment to shareholder income.

Risks to Watch

Dividend exceeds free cash flow

Free cash flow covers only -3.24× the dividend. The company is paying out more than it generates in cash, which is unsustainable without borrowing or asset sales.