NASDAQ · ALGN

Align Technology, Inc.

Healthcare · Medical - Devices

$150.72▼ 1.44% ($2.20)at close

Pre-market$152.72▲ 1.33%4:00 AM ET

52-week

$122.00$200.44

What the market price implies · Reverse DCF

To support a price of $150.72, this model requires Stage 1 FCFF to grow by 45.36%/yr over the next 5 years, compounded annually.

Historical FCFF grew by 4.85%/yr over the past 10 years. The required annual growth rate is 40.51 percentage points higher.

Selected forecast · Base scenario

4.85%/yr · Stage 1 default · years 1–5

Annual overrides take precedence over the Stage 1 default.

Market-implied · Other assumptions held fixed

45.36%/yr · Stage 1 · years 1–5

Stage 1 growth is solved while Stage 2 growth, terminal growth, discount inputs, and annual overrides remain fixed. This is a model-implied requirement, not an analyst forecast.

Valuation

Recommended · Cash-flow DCF

Price used

$150.72

Estimated value / share

$47.37

Base scenario

This estimate is 68.57% below the price used.

USD · TTM ending 2026-03-31

FCFF uses the latest complete trailing statement window ending 2026-03-31; newer income or cash-flow periods are incomplete.

Interest expense not reported — cost of debt may be understated.

FCFF base normalized by replacing latest capex with the company's trailing median capex-to-revenue ratio.

Working capital change smoothed: single-period ΔOWC exceeded ±5% of revenue and was capped to reduce timing noise.

Historical FCFF CAGR and the default growth rates are taken from the raw historical series. The valuation base is normalized for the current-period DCF.

WACC weights and all equity-bridge balances use the 2026-06-30 balance sheet; the FCFF base is TTM ending 2026-03-31.

Reported total debt includes capitalised leases (~100% of the total). They are excluded from net debt and from the WACC weights because rent is already charged inside operating income. The Net Debt shown here is therefore lower than the balance-sheet figure elsewhere on this page.

Stage 1 4.85% · Stage 2 3.5% · Discount rate 13.99%

Assumption scenarios, not statistical confidence intervals.

Method, dates & sources

Estimated from future free cash flow, discounted to its value today.

Price timestamp: Sep 10, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC
Financial statement period: TTM ending 2026-03-31
Data refreshed: Sep 11, 2026, 8:28 AM UTC · provider

Why this method?

FCFF is positive, but the year-to-year swings are too large for a direct CAGR. Normalize the cash-flow base first, then run DCF.

Is FCFF positive and has it been for 3+ consecutive years? 16 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Is FCFF stable (not swinging >30% year to year)? The largest recent FCFF swing is 193.5%.

Price vs Fundamentals

Why The Stock Is Moving

Mixed / unclearLow confidence

1Y Price: 13.37%Revenue (TTM): 4.41%FCF (TTM): 11.41%P/FCF: 0th pct

What changed

The stock rose 13.37% over the last year. Revenue grew 4.41% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 15.15% to 13.33%. Free cash flow grew 11.41% over the trailing twelve months.

What the market seems to be pricing

The stock has moved higher with no clear directional signal from operating metrics. The operating data does not yet tell a clear story — the move may reflect sentiment, sector rotation, or macro factors rather than company-specific earnings power.

What would invalidate this read

Operating margin currently stands at 13.33%. A decisive move in revenue — currently up 4.41% — would be the clearest signal to resolve the ambiguity.

Performance

Return analysis

Company profile

Align Technology, Inc. is a medical technology enterprise that develops, produces, and markets its leading products: Invisalign transparent dental aligners and iTero digital intraoral scanners, along with related services.

CEOJoseph Hogan

SectorHealthcare

IndustryMedical - Devices

Employees20,435

IPO dateJan 30, 2001

https://www.aligntech.com

Market multiples

Forward P/E—

EV/EBITDA13.53

Enterprise value$10.36B

Stock splits

No stock splits recorded for this ticker.

Profitability & growth

Revenue growth4.32%

Gross margin66.48%▼1.7ppvs FY2024

Operating margin13.33%▲0.1ppvs FY2024

ROE10.16%▼0.2ppvs FY2025

Analyst consensus

RatingBuy

Target price$205.25▲36.18%

Buy

Hold

Sell

Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.

Earnings

Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.

Next report

Oct 28, 2026

Q4 FY26 · EPS est $2.78 · Revenue est $1.01B

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