NYSE · ALLE
Allegion plc
Industrials · Security & Protection Services
$178.98▲ 1.39% ($2.46)at close
As of 4:00 PM ET
Valuation
Cash-flow DCF
Verdict: cheap. Price below all scenarios.
The price holds with free cash flow shrinking 0.7% a year for 5 years. Our scenarios assume 3.4–23.6%.
That's below its past 10-year pace of 8.6%.
Value per share
Base case
$281.09
Price used $178.98 is 36% below this
USD · TTM ending Sep 30, 2026 · Price Oct 23, 8:00 PM UTC
FCFF base normalized by replacing latest capex with the company's trailing median capex-to-revenue ratio.
1 more note
Historical FCFF CAGR and the default growth rates are taken from the raw historical series. The valuation base is normalized for the current-period DCF.
Free cash flow each value needs
Free cash flow today $896M. The price needs $1.1B by 2036. Base case: $1.7B. At its recent pace: $2.1B. Bear to Bull: $1.3B to $4.8B.
Free cash flow today $896M. The price needs $1.1B by 2036. Base case: $1.7B. At its recent pace: $2.1B. Bear to Bull: $1.3B to $4.8B.
Free cash flow in 2036
today $896M
−$622Mless than the Base case
Value per share · Base case
$281.09
Price $178.98
36% below this
- Stage 1 growth, yrs 1–5
- 8.6%
- Stage 2 growth, yrs 6–10
- 4.8%
- Discount rate
- 7.9%
FCFF base normalized by replacing latest capex with the company's trailing median capex-to-revenue ratio.
1 more note
Historical FCFF CAGR and the default growth rates are taken from the raw historical series. The valuation base is normalized for the current-period DCF.
USD · TTM ending Sep 30, 2026 · Price Oct 23, 8:00 PM UTC
What each scenario assumes. Click a column to start from it.
Price vs Fundamentals
Why The Stock Is Moving
What changed
The stock rose 4.53% over the last year. Revenue grew 10.33% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 20.97% to 21.5%. Free cash flow grew 5.21% over the trailing twelve months.
What the market seems to be pricing
The stock has moved higher against modestly improving underlying metrics. The operating data does not yet tell a clear story — the move may reflect sentiment, sector rotation, or macro factors rather than company-specific earnings power.
What would invalidate this read
Operating margin currently stands at 21.5%. A decisive move in revenue — currently up 10.33% — would be the clearest signal to resolve the ambiguity.
Return analysis
Company profile
Allegion plc engages in the provision of security products and solutions worldwide.
Market multiples
Stock splits
No stock splits recorded for this ticker.
Profitability & growth
Analyst consensus
10
Buy
14
Hold
0
Sell
Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.
Earnings
Actuals vs estimates by quarter, or any quarter against the same one a year earlier.
Next report
Feb 16, 2027
Q4 FY26 · EPS est $2.28 · Revenue est $1.1B
Same quarter, year over year
FY26 YTD +9.7%Each cell vs the same quarter a year earlier (the cell below) · Q1–Q3 combined $6.80 vs $6.20 · 2 of 3 quarters up
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
FY total
FY26
—
FY25
FY24
FY23
—
—
—
—
Fiscal year totals
- FY25
- $8.14
- +8.1%
- FY24
- $7.53
- —
Q3 FY26
Reported Oct 22, 2026 · Latest
HoverTap a cell to inspect
Actual
$2.60
Estimate
$2.50
Year over year
+13.0%
Vs prior quarter
+8.3%
Institutional Sentiment
Allegion plc · ALLE
From Form 13F filings (managers with $100M+). Filings land up to 45 days after quarter end — read this as positioning context, not live fund flow.