NYSE · AMTM

Amentum Holdings, Inc.

Industrials · Aerospace & Defense

$19.88▼ 1.29% ($0.26)at close

After hours$19.99▲ 0.57%7:30 PM ET

52-week

$19.21$38.11

What the market price implies · Reverse DCF

To support a price of $19.88, this model requires revenue to grow by -7.85%/yr over the next 10 years, compounded annually.

Historical revenue grew by 29.66%/yr over the past 4 years. The required annual growth rate is 37.51 percentage points lower.

Selected forecast · Base scenario

7.3%/yr · actual 10-year annualized revenue growth

Year 1 growth: 11.44%

Market-implied · Base operating assumptions + edited margins

-7.85%/yr · flat 10-year annualized revenue growth

Reverse DCF solves revenue growth itself using Base operating assumptions and your edited margins. Changing forecast growth alone does not change the implied rate. This is a model-implied requirement, not an analyst forecast.

Valuation

Recommended · Revenue & margin DCF

Price used

$19.88

Estimated value / share

$97.41

Base scenario

This estimate is 389.99% above the price used.

USD · TTM ending 2026-07-03

Latest quarterly growth differs materially from the latest annual pace. It remains an observed growth input; review whether acceleration or a change in the business explains it.

This estimate is at least 3× the price used. Review the growth, margin and investment assumptions behind the gap.

Year 1 growth 11.44% · Ending margin 4.71% · Discount rate 6.86%

Assumption scenarios, not statistical confidence intervals.

Method, dates & sources

Estimated from future revenue, operating margins, and the investment needed to support them.

Price timestamp: Sep 16, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC
Financial statement period: TTM ending 2026-07-03
Data refreshed: Sep 16, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC · provider

Why this method?

FCFF is positive, but the series is too unstable to anchor a direct cash-flow CAGR and the business still fails the steady-state comparability checks. Use a revenue-and-margin transition model instead of normalizing and compounding current FCFF.

Is FCFF positive and has it been for 3+ consecutive years? 5 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Is FCFF stable (not swinging >30% year to year)? The largest recent FCFF swing is 77.0%.

Do you have 5+ years of positive FCFF history? 5 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Is the business model structurally similar to what it should be in 10 years? 4.0-year FCFF CAGR of 50.3% exceeds the 20.0% sustainability threshold — compounding current cash flows at that historical rate would produce an unreliable forward projection.

Price vs Fundamentals

Why The Stock Is Moving

Likely multiple compressionModerate confidence

1Y Price: -12.23%Revenue (TTM): -3.94%FCF (TTM): 251.9%P/FCF: 0th pct

What changed

The stock fell 12.23% over the last year. Revenue declined 3.94% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 2.63% to 4.1%. Free cash flow grew 251.9% over the trailing twelve months.

What the market seems to be pricing

Visible fundamentals weakened far less than the stock price, and the shares now sit around the 0th percentile of their historical P/FCF range. That looks more like a rerating of the multiple than a collapse in the business.

What would invalidate this read

This read changes if operating margin (currently 4.1%) continues to decline, or if revenue growth turns negative. The bull case requires the business to hold its current trajectory.

Performance

Return analysis

Company profile

Amentum Holdings, Inc. is a provider of critical, technology-driven services, serving both governmental and commercial sectors.

CEOJohn E. Heller

SectorIndustrials

IndustryAerospace & Defense

Employees50,000

IPO dateSep 24, 2024

https://www.amentum.com

Market multiples

Forward P/E—

EV/EBITDA10.17

Enterprise value$10.04B

Stock splits

No stock splits recorded for this ticker.

Profitability & growth

Revenue growth-1.99%

Gross margin (FY2025)7.18%▼2.3ppvs FY2024

Operating margin (FY2025)3.49%0.0ppvs FY2024

ROE4.46%▲3.0ppvs FY2025

Analyst consensus

RatingHold

Target price$27.17▲36.67%

Buy

Hold

Sell

Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.

Earnings

Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.

Next report

Nov 23, 2026

Q4 FY26 · EPS est $0.66 · Revenue est $3.68B

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