NASDAQ · APA

APA Corporation

Energy · Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

$44.53▼ 0.69% ($0.31)at close

Pre-market$43.92▼ 1.37%8:05 AM ET

52-week

$21.63$46.10

Market cap

$15.74B

P/E

9.40

Volume

6.54M

Shares outstanding

353.47M

What the market price implies · Reverse DCF

To support a price of $44.53, this model requires revenue to grow by 13.77%/yr over the next 10 years, compounded annually.

Historical revenue grew by 2.81%/yr over the past 4 years. The required annual growth rate is 10.96 percentage points higher.

Selected forecast · Base scenario

1.1%/yr · actual 10-year annualized revenue growth

Year 1 growth: 1.52%

Market-implied · Base operating assumptions + edited margins

13.77%/yr · flat 10-year annualized revenue growth

Reverse DCF solves revenue growth itself using Base operating assumptions and your edited margins. Changing forecast growth alone does not change the implied rate. This is a model-implied requirement, not an analyst forecast.

Valuation

Recommended · Revenue & margin DCF

Price used

$44.53

Estimated value / share

$9.18

Base scenario

This estimate is 79.38% below the price used.

USD · TTM ending 2026-06-30

Latest quarterly growth differs materially from the latest annual pace. It remains an observed growth input; review whether acceleration or a change in the business explains it.

Year 1 growth 1.52% · Ending margin 11.84% · Discount rate 7.07%

Assumption scenarios, not statistical confidence intervals.

Method, dates & sources

Estimated from future revenue, operating margins, and the investment needed to support them.

Price timestamp: Sep 10, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC
Financial statement period: TTM ending 2026-06-30
Data refreshed: Sep 11, 2026, 12:27 PM UTC · provider

Why this method?

FCFF is positive, but the series is too unstable to anchor a direct cash-flow CAGR and the business still fails the steady-state comparability checks. Use a revenue-and-margin transition model instead of normalizing and compounding current FCFF.

Is FCFF positive and has it been for 3+ consecutive years? 5 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Is FCFF stable (not swinging >30% year to year)? The largest recent FCFF swing is 44.9%.

Do you have 5+ years of positive FCFF history? 5 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Is the business model structurally similar to what it should be in 10 years? Operating margin moved 15.1 percentage points across the last five years, above the 10.0-point stability threshold, so steady-state FCFF is not a reliable anchor yet.

Price vs Fundamentals

Why The Stock Is Moving

Mixed / unclearLow confidence

1Y Price: 91.2%Revenue (TTM): -12.18%FCF (TTM): 29.01%P/FCF: 48th pct

What changed

The stock rose 91.2% over the last year. Revenue declined 12.18% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 31.33% to 11.84%. Free cash flow grew 29.01% over the trailing twelve months.

What the market seems to be pricing

The stock has moved higher against modestly weakening underlying metrics. The operating data does not yet tell a clear story — the move may reflect sentiment, sector rotation, or macro factors rather than company-specific earnings power.

What would invalidate this read

Operating margin currently stands at 11.84%. A decisive move in revenue — currently down 12.18% — would be the clearest signal to resolve the ambiguity.

Performance

Return analysis

Company profile

APA Corporation operates in the upstream segment of the oil and natural gas industry, utilizing its various subsidiaries to explore for, develop, and produce hydrocarbon assets.

CEOJohn J. Christmann

SectorEnergy

IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production

Employees1,791

IPO dateMay 15, 1979

https://apacorp.com

Market multiples

Forward P/E—

EV/EBITDA2.41

Enterprise value$13.08B

Stock splits

Jan 15, 2004↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

Mar 10, 2003↑ Forward

Every 20 shares became 21

+5%

Dec 27, 2001↑ Forward

Every 10 shares became 11

+10%

Feb 20, 1981↑ Forward

Every 2 shares became 3

+50%

May 15, 1980↑ Forward

Every 2 shares became 3

+50%

May 15, 1979↑ Forward

Every 3 shares became 4

+33%

May 15, 1978↑ Forward

Every 2 shares became 3

+50%

Nov 8, 1976↑ Forward

Every 5 shares became 6

+20%

Profitability & growth

Revenue growth10.15%

Gross margin38.77%▼6.9ppvs FY2024

Operating margin11.84%▼2.0ppvs FY2024

ROE25.95%▲0.7ppvs FY2025

Analyst consensus

RatingHold

Target price$45.23▲1.57%

Buy

Hold

Sell

Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.

Earnings

Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.

Next report

Nov 4, 2026

Q4 FY26 · EPS est $1.28 · Revenue est $2.2B

View

Dividends

$1.00/shareQuarterly5yr growth streakSafe

APA pays a dividend with a 2.25% dividend yield, 5 consecutive years of growth, growing at 58.49% annually, covered 4.9× by free cash flow.

Dividend Yield

2.25%

Annual Div / Share

$1.00

5yr CAGR

+58.49%

Doubles every ~1.5yr

Payout Ratio

21.23%

Safe

Dividend Growth Rate

3yr CAGR

+0%

5yr CAGR

+58.49%

10yr CAGR

+0%

Dividend Safety

10/10Safe

Dividend History

Annualized dividend cycles per share

YearAnnual DivYoY

2026$1.00+0.0%

2025$1.00+0.0%

2024$1.00+0.0%

2023$1.00+128.6%

2022$0.44+337.5%

2021$0.10-81.8%

2020$0.55-45.0%

Income Projection

Invest

Growth rate:

Reinvest dividends

Today

$22/yr

$2/mo

In 5 yrs

$40/yr+76%

$3/mo

In 10 yrs

$70/yr+211%

$6/mo

Today	In 5 yrs	In 10 yrs
$22/yr $2/mo	$40/yr+76% $3/mo	$70/yr+211% $6/mo

Long-range projections use a capped 12% annual growth assumption.

Yield-on-cost grows from 2.25% → 6.97% over 10yr

Analysis

Dividend Strengths

Well-covered by free cash flow

The dividend is covered 4.9× by free cash flow, indicating the company generates sufficient cash to sustain and potentially grow the payout without straining its finances.

Strong dividend growth rate

The 5-year CAGR of 58.49% meaningfully outpaces inflation, compounding real income growth for long-term holders.

Risks to Watch

No strong risk signal stands out from the latest period pair.

NASDAQ · APA

APA Corporation

Energy · Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

$44.53▼ 0.69% ($0.31)at close

Pre-market$43.92▼ 1.37%8:05 AM ET

52-week

$21.63$46.10

Market cap

$15.74B

P/E

9.40

Volume

6.54M

Shares outstanding

353.47M

What the market price implies · Reverse DCF

To support a price of $44.53, this model requires revenue to grow by 13.77%/yr over the next 10 years, compounded annually.

Historical revenue grew by 2.81%/yr over the past 4 years. The required annual growth rate is 10.96 percentage points higher.

Selected forecast · Base scenario

1.1%/yr · actual 10-year annualized revenue growth

Year 1 growth: 1.52%

Market-implied · Base operating assumptions + edited margins

13.77%/yr · flat 10-year annualized revenue growth

Valuation

Recommended · Revenue & margin DCF

Price used

$44.53

Estimated value / share

$9.18

Base scenario

This estimate is 79.38% below the price used.

USD · TTM ending 2026-06-30

Latest quarterly growth differs materially from the latest annual pace. It remains an observed growth input; review whether acceleration or a change in the business explains it.

Year 1 growth 1.52% · Ending margin 11.84% · Discount rate 7.07%

Assumption scenarios, not statistical confidence intervals.

Method, dates & sources

Estimated from future revenue, operating margins, and the investment needed to support them.

Price timestamp: Sep 10, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC
Financial statement period: TTM ending 2026-06-30
Data refreshed: Sep 11, 2026, 12:27 PM UTC · provider

Why this method?

Is FCFF positive and has it been for 3+ consecutive years? 5 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Is FCFF stable (not swinging >30% year to year)? The largest recent FCFF swing is 44.9%.

Do you have 5+ years of positive FCFF history? 5 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Price vs Fundamentals

Why The Stock Is Moving

Mixed / unclearLow confidence

1Y Price: 91.2%Revenue (TTM): -12.18%FCF (TTM): 29.01%P/FCF: 48th pct

What changed

What the market seems to be pricing

What would invalidate this read

Operating margin currently stands at 11.84%. A decisive move in revenue — currently down 12.18% — would be the clearest signal to resolve the ambiguity.

Performance

Return analysis

Company profile

APA Corporation operates in the upstream segment of the oil and natural gas industry, utilizing its various subsidiaries to explore for, develop, and produce hydrocarbon assets.

CEOJohn J. Christmann

SectorEnergy

IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production

Employees1,791

IPO dateMay 15, 1979

https://apacorp.com

Market multiples

Forward P/E—

EV/EBITDA2.41

Enterprise value$13.08B

Stock splits

Jan 15, 2004↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

Mar 10, 2003↑ Forward

Every 20 shares became 21

+5%

Dec 27, 2001↑ Forward

Every 10 shares became 11

+10%

Feb 20, 1981↑ Forward

Every 2 shares became 3

+50%

May 15, 1980↑ Forward

Every 2 shares became 3

+50%

May 15, 1979↑ Forward

Every 3 shares became 4

+33%

May 15, 1978↑ Forward

Every 2 shares became 3

+50%

Nov 8, 1976↑ Forward

Every 5 shares became 6

+20%

Profitability & growth

Revenue growth10.15%

Gross margin38.77%▼6.9ppvs FY2024

Operating margin11.84%▼2.0ppvs FY2024

ROE25.95%▲0.7ppvs FY2025

Analyst consensus

RatingHold

Target price$45.23▲1.57%

Buy

Hold

Sell

Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.

Earnings

Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.

Next report

Nov 4, 2026

Q4 FY26 · EPS est $1.28 · Revenue est $2.2B

View

Dividends

$1.00/shareQuarterly5yr growth streakSafe

APA pays a dividend with a 2.25% dividend yield, 5 consecutive years of growth, growing at 58.49% annually, covered 4.9× by free cash flow.

Dividend Yield

2.25%

Annual Div / Share

$1.00

5yr CAGR

+58.49%

Doubles every ~1.5yr

Payout Ratio

21.23%

Safe

Dividend Growth Rate

3yr CAGR

+0%

5yr CAGR

+58.49%

10yr CAGR

+0%

Dividend Safety

10/10Safe

Dividend History

Annualized dividend cycles per share

YearAnnual DivYoY

2026$1.00+0.0%

2025$1.00+0.0%

2024$1.00+0.0%

2023$1.00+128.6%

2022$0.44+337.5%

2021$0.10-81.8%

2020$0.55-45.0%

Income Projection

Invest

Growth rate:

Reinvest dividends

Today

$22/yr

$2/mo

In 5 yrs

$40/yr+76%

$3/mo

In 10 yrs

$70/yr+211%

$6/mo

Today	In 5 yrs	In 10 yrs
$22/yr $2/mo	$40/yr+76% $3/mo	$70/yr+211% $6/mo

Long-range projections use a capped 12% annual growth assumption.

Yield-on-cost grows from 2.25% → 6.97% over 10yr

Analysis

Dividend Strengths

Well-covered by free cash flow

The dividend is covered 4.9× by free cash flow, indicating the company generates sufficient cash to sustain and potentially grow the payout without straining its finances.

Strong dividend growth rate

The 5-year CAGR of 58.49% meaningfully outpaces inflation, compounding real income growth for long-term holders.

Risks to Watch

No strong risk signal stands out from the latest period pair.