NASDAQ · APP

AppLovin Corporation

Technology · Software - Application

$308.06▼ 4.21% ($13.54)at close

After hours$309.62▲ 0.51%7:59 PM ET

52-week

$297.50$745.61

Market cap

$103.49B

P/E

23.60

EPS (TTM)

$13.05

Next earnings

Nov 4, 2026

What the market price implies · Reverse DCF

To support a price of $308.06, this model requires revenue to grow by 36.2%/yr over the next 10 years, compounded annually.

Historical revenue grew by 18.36%/yr over the past 4 years. The required annual growth rate is 17.84 percentage points higher.

Selected forecast · Base scenario

19.61%/yr · actual 10-year annualized revenue growth

Year 1 growth: 40%

Market-implied · Base operating assumptions + edited margins

36.2%/yr · flat 10-year annualized revenue growth

Reverse DCF solves revenue growth itself using Base operating assumptions and your edited margins. Changing forecast growth alone does not change the implied rate. This is a model-implied requirement, not an analyst forecast.

Valuation

Recommended · Revenue & margin DCF

Price used

$308.06

Estimated value / share

$124.77

Base scenario

This estimate is 59.5% below the price used.

USD · TTM ending 2026-06-30

Latest quarterly growth differs materially from the latest annual pace. It remains an observed growth input; review whether acceleration or a change in the business explains it.

Year 1 growth 40% · Ending margin 30% · Discount rate 18.24%

Assumption scenarios, not statistical confidence intervals.

Method, dates & sources

Estimated from future revenue, operating margins, and the investment needed to support them.

Price timestamp: Sep 18, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC
Financial statement period: TTM ending 2026-06-30
Data refreshed: Sep 20, 2026, 6:23 PM UTC · provider

Why this method?

FCFF is positive, but the series is too unstable to anchor a direct cash-flow CAGR and the business still fails the steady-state comparability checks. Use a revenue-and-margin transition model instead of normalizing and compounding current FCFF.

Is FCFF positive and has it been for 3+ consecutive years? 8 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Is FCFF stable (not swinging >30% year to year)? The largest recent FCFF swing is 375.8%. Latest capex is 10.0x the prior median, which points to a capex supercycle that should be normalized first.

Do you have 5+ years of positive FCFF history? 8 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Is the business model structurally similar to what it should be in 10 years? Revenue is still growing 52.8%, above the 15.0% maturity threshold, so a steady-state FCFF model would lean too heavily on a business still scaling.

Price vs Fundamentals

Why The Stock Is Moving

Likely multiple compressionHigh confidence

1Y Price: -50.43%Revenue (TTM): 47.63%FCF (TTM): 58%P/FCF: 38th pct

What changed

The stock fell 50.43% over the last year. Revenue grew 47.63% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 63.56% to 77.44%. Free cash flow grew 58% over the trailing twelve months.

What the market seems to be pricing

Visible fundamentals weakened far less than the stock price, and the shares now sit around the 38th percentile of their historical P/FCF range. That looks more like a rerating of the multiple than a collapse in the business.

What would invalidate this read

This read changes if operating margin (currently 77.44%) continues to decline, or if revenue growth turns negative. The bull case requires the business to hold its current trajectory.

Performance

Return analysis

Company profile

AppLovin Corporation provides a specialized software platform focused on empowering mobile application developers to enhance the marketing and revenue generation of their products.

CEOAdam Arash Foroughi

SectorTechnology

IndustrySoftware - Application

Employees887

IPO dateApr 15, 2021

https://www.applovin.com

Market multiples

Forward P/E—

EV/EBITDA52.66

Enterprise value$229.34B

Stock splits

No stock splits recorded for this ticker.

Profitability & growth

Revenue growth52.82%

Gross margin (FY2025)87.86%▲4.0ppvs FY2024

Operating margin (FY2025)75.75%▲16.5ppvs FY2024

ROE203.69%▼3.1ppvs FY2025

Analyst consensus

RatingBuy

Target price$532.25▲72.77%

Buy

Hold

Sell

Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.

Earnings

Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.

Next report

Nov 4, 2026

Q4 FY26 · EPS est $4.04 · Revenue est $2.07B

View

NASDAQ · APP

AppLovin Corporation

Technology · Software - Application

$308.06▼ 4.21% ($13.54)at close

After hours$309.62▲ 0.51%7:59 PM ET

52-week

$297.50$745.61

Market cap

$103.49B

P/E

23.60

EPS (TTM)

$13.05

Next earnings

Nov 4, 2026

What the market price implies · Reverse DCF

To support a price of $308.06, this model requires revenue to grow by 36.2%/yr over the next 10 years, compounded annually.

Historical revenue grew by 18.36%/yr over the past 4 years. The required annual growth rate is 17.84 percentage points higher.

Selected forecast · Base scenario

19.61%/yr · actual 10-year annualized revenue growth

Year 1 growth: 40%

Market-implied · Base operating assumptions + edited margins

36.2%/yr · flat 10-year annualized revenue growth

Valuation

Recommended · Revenue & margin DCF

Price used

$308.06

Estimated value / share

$124.77

Base scenario

This estimate is 59.5% below the price used.

USD · TTM ending 2026-06-30

Latest quarterly growth differs materially from the latest annual pace. It remains an observed growth input; review whether acceleration or a change in the business explains it.

Year 1 growth 40% · Ending margin 30% · Discount rate 18.24%

Assumption scenarios, not statistical confidence intervals.

Method, dates & sources

Estimated from future revenue, operating margins, and the investment needed to support them.

Price timestamp: Sep 18, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC
Financial statement period: TTM ending 2026-06-30
Data refreshed: Sep 20, 2026, 6:23 PM UTC · provider

Why this method?

Is FCFF positive and has it been for 3+ consecutive years? 8 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Is FCFF stable (not swinging >30% year to year)? The largest recent FCFF swing is 375.8%. Latest capex is 10.0x the prior median, which points to a capex supercycle that should be normalized first.

Do you have 5+ years of positive FCFF history? 8 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Price vs Fundamentals

Why The Stock Is Moving

Likely multiple compressionHigh confidence

1Y Price: -50.43%Revenue (TTM): 47.63%FCF (TTM): 58%P/FCF: 38th pct

What changed

The stock fell 50.43% over the last year. Revenue grew 47.63% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 63.56% to 77.44%. Free cash flow grew 58% over the trailing twelve months.

What the market seems to be pricing

What would invalidate this read

This read changes if operating margin (currently 77.44%) continues to decline, or if revenue growth turns negative. The bull case requires the business to hold its current trajectory.

Performance

Return analysis

Company profile

AppLovin Corporation provides a specialized software platform focused on empowering mobile application developers to enhance the marketing and revenue generation of their products.

CEOAdam Arash Foroughi

SectorTechnology

IndustrySoftware - Application

Employees887

IPO dateApr 15, 2021

https://www.applovin.com

Market multiples

Forward P/E—

EV/EBITDA52.66

Enterprise value$229.34B

Stock splits

No stock splits recorded for this ticker.

Profitability & growth

Revenue growth52.82%

Gross margin (FY2025)87.86%▲4.0ppvs FY2024

Operating margin (FY2025)75.75%▲16.5ppvs FY2024

ROE203.69%▼3.1ppvs FY2025

Analyst consensus

RatingBuy

Target price$532.25▲72.77%

Buy

Hold

Sell

Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.

Earnings

Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.

Next report

Nov 4, 2026

Q4 FY26 · EPS est $4.04 · Revenue est $2.07B

View