NYSE · ARC
ARC Document Solutions, Inc.
Industrials · Specialty Business Services
$3.39
As of 4:00 PM ET
Market cap
$146.66M
P/E
31.61
EPS (TTM)
$0.11
Next earnings
Nov 4, 2024
Valuation
Cash-flow DCF
Verdict: fairly priced. Price between Bear and Base.
The price holds with free cash flow shrinking 17.9% a year for 5 years. Our scenarios assume −21.7–8.3%.
Its past 10 years averaged −6.7% a year.
Value per share
Base case
$5.64
Price used $3.39 is 40% below this
USD · TTM ending Sep 30, 2024 · Price Nov 21, 2024, 9:00 PM UTC
The trailing effective tax rate was 47.5%, outside the 5.0% to 40.0% range a rate held for ten years and beyond should sit in, so the 21.0% default is used for NOPAT and the WACC tax shield.
4 more notes
FCFF base normalized by replacing latest capex with the company's trailing median capex-to-revenue ratio.
CapEx normalization was capped: company appears to be in a multi-year investment cycle. Median-based capex floor applied at 60% of TTM capex.
Historical FCFF CAGR and the default growth rates are taken from the raw historical series. The valuation base is normalized for the current-period DCF.
Reported total debt includes capitalised leases (~53% of the total). They are excluded from net debt and from the WACC weights because rent is already charged inside operating income. The Net Debt shown here is therefore lower than the balance-sheet figure elsewhere on this page.
Free cash flow each value needs
Free cash flow today $22.2M. The price needs $9.8M by 2034. Base case: $18.7M. At its recent pace: $11.2M. Bear to Bull: $7.8M to $41.5M.
Free cash flow today $22.2M. The price needs $9.8M by 2034. Base case: $18.7M. At its recent pace: $11.2M. Bear to Bull: $7.8M to $41.5M.
Free cash flow in 2034
today $22.2M
−$8.9Mless than the Base case
Value per share · Base case
$5.64
Price $3.39
40% below this
- Stage 1 growth, yrs 1–5
- −6.7%
- Stage 2 growth, yrs 6–10
- 3.5%
- Discount rate
- 9.4%
The trailing effective tax rate was 47.5%, outside the 5.0% to 40.0% range a rate held for ten years and beyond should sit in, so the 21.0% default is used for NOPAT and the WACC tax shield.
4 more notes
FCFF base normalized by replacing latest capex with the company's trailing median capex-to-revenue ratio.
CapEx normalization was capped: company appears to be in a multi-year investment cycle. Median-based capex floor applied at 60% of TTM capex.
Historical FCFF CAGR and the default growth rates are taken from the raw historical series. The valuation base is normalized for the current-period DCF.
Reported total debt includes capitalised leases (~53% of the total). They are excluded from net debt and from the WACC weights because rent is already charged inside operating income. The Net Debt shown here is therefore lower than the balance-sheet figure elsewhere on this page.
USD · TTM ending Sep 30, 2024 · Price Nov 21, 2024, 9:00 PM UTC
What each scenario assumes. Click a column to start from it.
Price vs Fundamentals
Why The Stock Is Moving
Note: The latest financial period used here ended about 24 months ago, so a newer report is probably out. Metrics shown may not reflect it.
What changed
The stock rose 18.95% over the last year. Revenue grew 2.88% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 6.57% to 3.39%. Free cash flow declined 22.1% over the trailing twelve months.
What the market seems to be pricing
The stock is rising despite deteriorating fundamentals and now sits at the 100th percentile of its historical P/FCF range. This is a momentum-driven move — the market may be front-running a recovery that has not yet appeared in reported numbers.
What would invalidate this read
Operating margin (currently 3.39%) would need to stabilize or improve to justify the move. This read is wrong if the next period shows operating metrics turning the corner. At that point the price would be anticipating real improvement rather than running ahead of it.
Return analysis
Company profile
ARC Document Solutions, Inc. is a prominent digital printing firm that delivers an array of printing and document management solutions, primarily within the United States but also internationally.
Market multiples
Stock splits
Every 1 shares became 10
Profitability & growth
Analyst consensus
4
Buy
3
Hold
0
Sell
Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.
Earnings
Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.
Next report
Nov 4, 2024
Q4 FY24 · EPS est $0.06 · Revenue est $72.31M
View
Institutional Sentiment
ARC Document Solutions, Inc. · ARC
From Form 13F filings (managers with $100M+). Filings land up to 45 days after quarter end — read this as positioning context, not live fund flow.