NASDAQ · ASML

ASML Holding N.V.

Technology · Semiconductors

$1,687.43▼ 2.43% ($42.09)at close

After hours$1,683.55▼ 0.23%7:59 PM ET

52-week

$798.51$1,999.96

Market cap

What the market price implies · Reverse DCF

To support a price of $1,687.43, this model requires revenue to grow by 29.11%/yr over the next 10 years, compounded annually.

Historical revenue grew by 15.1%/yr over the past 4 years. The required annual growth rate is 14.01 percentage points higher.

Selected forecast · Base scenario

11.04%/yr · actual 10-year annualized revenue growth

Year 1 growth: 17.31%

Market-implied · Base operating assumptions + edited margins

29.11%/yr · flat 10-year annualized revenue growth

Reverse DCF solves revenue growth itself using Base operating assumptions and your edited margins. Changing forecast growth alone does not change the implied rate. This is a model-implied requirement, not an analyst forecast.

Valuation

Recommended · Revenue & margin DCF

Price used

$1,687.43

Estimated value / share

$509.28

Base scenario

This estimate is 69.82% below the price used.

USD · TTM ending 2026-06-30

Year 1 growth 17.31% · Ending margin 30% · Discount rate 12.41%

Assumption scenarios, not statistical confidence intervals.

Method, dates & sources

Estimated from future revenue, operating margins, and the investment needed to support them.

Price timestamp: Sep 10, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC
Financial statement period: TTM ending 2026-06-30
Data refreshed: Sep 11, 2026, 4:27 AM UTC · provider

Why this method?

FCFF is positive, but the series is too unstable to anchor a direct cash-flow CAGR and the business still fails the steady-state comparability checks. Use a revenue-and-margin transition model instead of normalizing and compounding current FCFF.

Is FCFF positive and has it been for 3+ consecutive years? 16 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Is FCFF stable (not swinging >30% year to year)? The largest recent FCFF swing is 211.3%.

Do you have 5+ years of positive FCFF history? 16 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Is the business model structurally similar to what it should be in 10 years? Revenue is still growing 21.3%, above the 15.0% maturity threshold, so a steady-state FCFF model would lean too heavily on a business still scaling.

Price vs Fundamentals

Why The Stock Is Moving

Optimism is getting priced inModerate confidence

1Y Price: 112.75%Revenue (TTM): 9.84%FCF (TTM): 10.35%P/FCF: 80th pct

What changed

The stock rose 112.75% over the last year. Revenue grew 9.84% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 34.82% to 35.42%. Free cash flow grew 10.35% over the trailing twelve months.

What the market seems to be pricing

The stock is trading toward the richer end of its historical P/FCF range (80th percentile) while business metrics are improving. More of the upside is already embedded in the multiple now.

What would invalidate this read

Operating margin is at 35.42% — continued expansion would be needed to justify the premium. Revenue growth of 9.84% is encouraging, but any deceleration puts the stretched multiple at risk. This read changes if revenue, margins, and cash flow continue to improve faster than expected — in that case the richer multiple could still prove conservative.

Performance

Return analysis

Company profile

ASML Holding N.V. provides lithography solutions for the development, production, marketing, sales, upgrading, and servicing of advanced semiconductor equipment systems.

CEOChristophe D. Fouquet

SectorTechnology

IndustrySemiconductors

Employees43,938

IPO dateMar 15, 1995

https://www.asml.com

Market multiples

Forward P/E—

EV/EBITDA27.63

Enterprise value$343.55B

Stock splits

Nov 29, 2012↓ Reverse

Every 100 shares became 77

-23%

Oct 1, 2007↓ Reverse

Every 9 shares became 8

-11%

Apr 17, 2000↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 3

+200%

May 8, 1998↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

May 12, 1997↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

Profitability & growth

Revenue growth21.25%

Gross margin52.73%▲1.6ppvs FY2024

Operating margin35.42%▲2.7ppvs FY2024

ROE53.89%▲3.4ppvs FY2025

Analyst consensus

RatingBuy

Target price$2,305.75▲36.64%

Buy

Hold

Sell

Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.

Earnings

Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.

Next report

Oct 14, 2026

Q4 FY26 · EPS est $12.11 · Revenue est $13.02B

View

Dividends

$5.31/shareSemi-annualSafe

ASML pays a dividend with a 0.31% dividend yield, growing at 20.9% annually, covered 4.3× by free cash flow.

Dividend Yield

0.31%

Annual Div / Share

$5.31

TTM $7.78

5yr CAGR

+20.9%

Doubles every ~3.7yr

Payout Ratio

27.21%

Safe

Dividend Growth Rate

3yr CAGR

+3.58%

5yr CAGR

+20.9%

10yr CAGR

+24.7%

Dividend Safety

10/10Safe

Dividend History

Annual dividends paid per share

YearAnnual DivYoY

2025$7.37+9.8%

2024$6.71+4.0%

2023$6.46-2.7%

2022$6.63+66.7%

2021$3.98+39.5%

2020$2.85-19.7%

2019$3.56+106.9%

Income Projection

Invest

Growth rate:

Reinvest dividends

Today

$3/yr

$0/mo

In 5 yrs

$6/yr+76%

$0/mo

In 10 yrs

$10/yr+211%

$1/mo

Today	In 5 yrs	In 10 yrs
$3/yr $0/mo	$6/yr+76% $0/mo	$10/yr+211% $1/mo

Long-range projections use a capped 12% annual growth assumption.

Yield-on-cost grows from 0.31% → 0.98% over 10yr

Analysis

Dividend Strengths

Well-covered by free cash flow

The dividend is covered 4.3× by free cash flow, indicating the company generates sufficient cash to sustain and potentially grow the payout without straining its finances.

Strong dividend growth rate

The 5-year CAGR of 20.9% meaningfully outpaces inflation, compounding real income growth for long-term holders.

Risks to Watch

No strong risk signal stands out from the latest period pair.

NASDAQ · ASML

ASML Holding N.V.

Technology · Semiconductors

$1,687.43▼ 2.43% ($42.09)at close

After hours$1,683.55▼ 0.23%7:59 PM ET

52-week

$798.51$1,999.96

Market cap

What the market price implies · Reverse DCF

To support a price of $1,687.43, this model requires revenue to grow by 29.11%/yr over the next 10 years, compounded annually.

Historical revenue grew by 15.1%/yr over the past 4 years. The required annual growth rate is 14.01 percentage points higher.

Selected forecast · Base scenario

11.04%/yr · actual 10-year annualized revenue growth

Year 1 growth: 17.31%

Market-implied · Base operating assumptions + edited margins

29.11%/yr · flat 10-year annualized revenue growth

Valuation

Recommended · Revenue & margin DCF

Price used

$1,687.43

Estimated value / share

$509.28

Base scenario

This estimate is 69.82% below the price used.

USD · TTM ending 2026-06-30

Year 1 growth 17.31% · Ending margin 30% · Discount rate 12.41%

Assumption scenarios, not statistical confidence intervals.

Method, dates & sources

Estimated from future revenue, operating margins, and the investment needed to support them.

Price timestamp: Sep 10, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC
Financial statement period: TTM ending 2026-06-30
Data refreshed: Sep 11, 2026, 4:27 AM UTC · provider

Why this method?

Is FCFF positive and has it been for 3+ consecutive years? 16 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Is FCFF stable (not swinging >30% year to year)? The largest recent FCFF swing is 211.3%.

Do you have 5+ years of positive FCFF history? 16 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Price vs Fundamentals

Why The Stock Is Moving

Optimism is getting priced inModerate confidence

1Y Price: 112.75%Revenue (TTM): 9.84%FCF (TTM): 10.35%P/FCF: 80th pct

What changed

What the market seems to be pricing

The stock is trading toward the richer end of its historical P/FCF range (80th percentile) while business metrics are improving. More of the upside is already embedded in the multiple now.

What would invalidate this read

Performance

Return analysis

Company profile

ASML Holding N.V. provides lithography solutions for the development, production, marketing, sales, upgrading, and servicing of advanced semiconductor equipment systems.

CEOChristophe D. Fouquet

SectorTechnology

IndustrySemiconductors

Employees43,938

IPO dateMar 15, 1995

https://www.asml.com

Market multiples

Forward P/E—

EV/EBITDA27.63

Enterprise value$343.55B

Stock splits

Nov 29, 2012↓ Reverse

Every 100 shares became 77

-23%

Oct 1, 2007↓ Reverse

Every 9 shares became 8

-11%

Apr 17, 2000↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 3

+200%

May 8, 1998↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

May 12, 1997↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

Profitability & growth

Revenue growth21.25%

Gross margin52.73%▲1.6ppvs FY2024

Operating margin35.42%▲2.7ppvs FY2024

ROE53.89%▲3.4ppvs FY2025

Analyst consensus

RatingBuy

Target price$2,305.75▲36.64%

Buy

Hold

Sell

Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.

Earnings

Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.

Next report

Oct 14, 2026

Q4 FY26 · EPS est $12.11 · Revenue est $13.02B

View

Dividends

$5.31/shareSemi-annualSafe

ASML pays a dividend with a 0.31% dividend yield, growing at 20.9% annually, covered 4.3× by free cash flow.

Dividend Yield

0.31%

Annual Div / Share

$5.31

TTM $7.78

5yr CAGR

+20.9%

Doubles every ~3.7yr

Payout Ratio

27.21%

Safe

Dividend Growth Rate

3yr CAGR

+3.58%

5yr CAGR

+20.9%

10yr CAGR

+24.7%

Dividend Safety

10/10Safe

Dividend History

Annual dividends paid per share

YearAnnual DivYoY

2025$7.37+9.8%

2024$6.71+4.0%

2023$6.46-2.7%

2022$6.63+66.7%

2021$3.98+39.5%

2020$2.85-19.7%

2019$3.56+106.9%

Income Projection

Invest

Growth rate:

Reinvest dividends

Today

$3/yr

$0/mo

In 5 yrs

$6/yr+76%

$0/mo

In 10 yrs

$10/yr+211%

$1/mo

Today	In 5 yrs	In 10 yrs
$3/yr $0/mo	$6/yr+76% $0/mo	$10/yr+211% $1/mo

Long-range projections use a capped 12% annual growth assumption.

Yield-on-cost grows from 0.31% → 0.98% over 10yr

Analysis

Dividend Strengths

Well-covered by free cash flow

The dividend is covered 4.3× by free cash flow, indicating the company generates sufficient cash to sustain and potentially grow the payout without straining its finances.

Strong dividend growth rate

The 5-year CAGR of 20.9% meaningfully outpaces inflation, compounding real income growth for long-term holders.

Risks to Watch

No strong risk signal stands out from the latest period pair.