NYSE · ATO

Atmos Energy Corporation

Utilities · Regulated Gas

$162.03▲ 0.04% ($0.07)at close

As of 4:00 PM ET

52-week

$161.44$192.51

Market cap

$27.05B

P/E

What the market price implies · Reverse DCF

To support a price of $162.03, this model requires revenue to grow by 7.1%/yr over the next 10 years, compounded annually.

Historical revenue grew by 8.39%/yr over the past 4 years. The required annual growth rate is 1.28 percentage points lower.

Selected forecast · Base scenario

3.18%/yr · actual 10-year annualized revenue growth

Year 1 growth: 4.98%

Market-implied · Base operating assumptions + edited margins

7.1%/yr · flat 10-year annualized revenue growth

Reverse DCF solves revenue growth itself using Base operating assumptions and your edited margins. Changing forecast growth alone does not change the implied rate. This is a model-implied requirement, not an analyst forecast.

Valuation

Recommended · Revenue & margin DCF

Price used

$162.03

Estimated value / share

$103.75

Base scenario

This estimate is 35.97% below the price used.

USD · TTM ending 2026-06-30

Year 1 growth 4.98% · Ending margin 30% · Discount rate 6.29%

Assumption scenarios, not statistical confidence intervals.

Method, dates & sources

Estimated from future revenue, operating margins, and the investment needed to support them.

Price timestamp: Sep 17, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC
Financial statement period: TTM ending 2026-06-30
Data refreshed: Sep 18, 2026, 2:59 AM UTC · cache

Why this method?

There is not a stable run of positive FCFF to anchor a direct cash-flow CAGR, so the model should start from revenue and margin assumptions instead.

Is FCFF positive and has it been for 3+ consecutive years? Latest FCFF is not positive.

Price vs Fundamentals

Why The Stock Is Moving

Mixed / unclearLow confidence

1Y Price: -0.87%Revenue (TTM): 6.45%FCF (TTM): -47.06%P/E: 35th pct

What changed

The stock fell 0.87% over the last year. Revenue grew 6.45% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 33% to 36.97%. Free cash flow declined 47.06% over the trailing twelve months.

What the market seems to be pricing

The stock has moved lower against modestly improving underlying metrics. The operating data does not yet tell a clear story — the move may reflect sentiment, sector rotation, or macro factors rather than company-specific earnings power.

What would invalidate this read

Operating margin currently stands at 36.97%. A decisive move in revenue — currently up 6.45% — would be the clearest signal to resolve the ambiguity.

Performance

Return analysis

Company profile

Atmos Energy Corporation, alongside its subsidiaries, is a U.S.-based enterprise primarily involved in the regulated distribution of natural gas, as well as operating pipeline and storage facilities.

CEOJohn Kevin Akers

SectorUtilities

IndustryRegulated Gas

Employees5,487

IPO dateDec 28, 1983

https://www.atmosenergy.com

Market multiples

Forward P/E—

EV/EBITDA15.20

Enterprise value$36.24B

Stock splits

May 17, 1994↑ Forward

Every 2 shares became 3

+50%

Jun 13, 1985↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

Profitability & growth

Revenue growth4.8%

Gross margin (FY2025)52.37%▼5.5ppvs FY2024

Operating margin (FY2025)33.17%▲0.6ppvs FY2024

ROE9.79%▲0.5ppvs FY2025

Analyst consensus

RatingHold

Target price$187.83▲15.92%

Buy

Hold

Sell

Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.

Earnings

Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.

Next report

Nov 4, 2026

Q4 FY26 · EPS est $1.18 · Revenue est $798.7M

View

Dividends

$4.00/shareQuarterlyDividend Aristocrat · 40yrAt Risk

ATO pays a dividend with a 2.47% dividend yield, 40 consecutive years of growth, growing at 9.86% annually, covered -2.7× by free cash flow.

Dividend Yield

2.47%

Annual Div / Share

$4.00

5yr CAGR

+9.86%

Doubles every ~7.4yr

Payout Ratio

45.07%

At Risk

Dividend Growth Rate

3yr CAGR

+10.56%

5yr CAGR

+9.86%

10yr CAGR

+9.06%

Dividend Safety

4/10At Risk

Dividend History

Annualized dividend cycles per share

YearAnnual DivYoY

2026$4.00+14.9%

2025$3.48+8.1%

2024$3.22+8.8%

2023$2.96+8.8%

2022$2.72+8.8%

2021$2.50+8.7%

2020$2.30+9.5%

Income Projection

Invest

USD

Growth rate:

Reinvest dividends

Today

$25/yr

$2/mo

In 5 yrs

$39/yr+60%

$3/mo

In 10 yrs

$63/yr+156%

$5/mo

Today	In 5 yrs	In 10 yrs
$25/yr $2/mo	$39/yr+60% $3/mo	$63/yr+156% $5/mo

Yield-on-cost grows from 2.47% → 6.32% over 10yr

Analysis

Dividend Strengths

Dividend Aristocrat

ATO has raised its dividend for 40 consecutive years — qualifying as a Dividend Aristocrat, demonstrating long-term commitment to shareholder income.

Strong dividend growth rate

The 5-year CAGR of 9.86% meaningfully outpaces inflation, compounding real income growth for long-term holders.

Risks to Watch

Dividend exceeds free cash flow

Free cash flow covers only -2.73× the dividend. The company is paying out more than it generates in cash, which is unsustainable without borrowing or asset sales.

NYSE · ATO

Atmos Energy Corporation

Utilities · Regulated Gas

$162.03▲ 0.04% ($0.07)at close

As of 4:00 PM ET

52-week

$161.44$192.51

Market cap

$27.05B

P/E

What the market price implies · Reverse DCF

To support a price of $162.03, this model requires revenue to grow by 7.1%/yr over the next 10 years, compounded annually.

Historical revenue grew by 8.39%/yr over the past 4 years. The required annual growth rate is 1.28 percentage points lower.

Selected forecast · Base scenario

3.18%/yr · actual 10-year annualized revenue growth

Year 1 growth: 4.98%

Market-implied · Base operating assumptions + edited margins

7.1%/yr · flat 10-year annualized revenue growth

Valuation

Recommended · Revenue & margin DCF

Price used

$162.03

Estimated value / share

$103.75

Base scenario

This estimate is 35.97% below the price used.

USD · TTM ending 2026-06-30

Year 1 growth 4.98% · Ending margin 30% · Discount rate 6.29%

Assumption scenarios, not statistical confidence intervals.

Method, dates & sources

Estimated from future revenue, operating margins, and the investment needed to support them.

Price timestamp: Sep 17, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC
Financial statement period: TTM ending 2026-06-30
Data refreshed: Sep 18, 2026, 2:59 AM UTC · cache

Why this method?

There is not a stable run of positive FCFF to anchor a direct cash-flow CAGR, so the model should start from revenue and margin assumptions instead.

Is FCFF positive and has it been for 3+ consecutive years? Latest FCFF is not positive.

Price vs Fundamentals

Why The Stock Is Moving

Mixed / unclearLow confidence

1Y Price: -0.87%Revenue (TTM): 6.45%FCF (TTM): -47.06%P/E: 35th pct

What changed

The stock fell 0.87% over the last year. Revenue grew 6.45% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 33% to 36.97%. Free cash flow declined 47.06% over the trailing twelve months.

What the market seems to be pricing

What would invalidate this read

Operating margin currently stands at 36.97%. A decisive move in revenue — currently up 6.45% — would be the clearest signal to resolve the ambiguity.

Performance

Return analysis

Company profile

Atmos Energy Corporation, alongside its subsidiaries, is a U.S.-based enterprise primarily involved in the regulated distribution of natural gas, as well as operating pipeline and storage facilities.

CEOJohn Kevin Akers

SectorUtilities

IndustryRegulated Gas

Employees5,487

IPO dateDec 28, 1983

https://www.atmosenergy.com

Market multiples

Forward P/E—

EV/EBITDA15.20

Enterprise value$36.24B

Stock splits

May 17, 1994↑ Forward

Every 2 shares became 3

+50%

Jun 13, 1985↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

Profitability & growth

Revenue growth4.8%

Gross margin (FY2025)52.37%▼5.5ppvs FY2024

Operating margin (FY2025)33.17%▲0.6ppvs FY2024

ROE9.79%▲0.5ppvs FY2025

Analyst consensus

RatingHold

Target price$187.83▲15.92%

Buy

Hold

Sell

Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.

Earnings

Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.

Next report

Nov 4, 2026

Q4 FY26 · EPS est $1.18 · Revenue est $798.7M

View

Dividends

$4.00/shareQuarterlyDividend Aristocrat · 40yrAt Risk

ATO pays a dividend with a 2.47% dividend yield, 40 consecutive years of growth, growing at 9.86% annually, covered -2.7× by free cash flow.

Dividend Yield

2.47%

Annual Div / Share

$4.00

5yr CAGR

+9.86%

Doubles every ~7.4yr

Payout Ratio

45.07%

At Risk

Dividend Growth Rate

3yr CAGR

+10.56%

5yr CAGR

+9.86%

10yr CAGR

+9.06%

Dividend Safety

4/10At Risk

Dividend History

Annualized dividend cycles per share

YearAnnual DivYoY

2026$4.00+14.9%

2025$3.48+8.1%

2024$3.22+8.8%

2023$2.96+8.8%

2022$2.72+8.8%

2021$2.50+8.7%

2020$2.30+9.5%

Income Projection

Invest

USD

Growth rate:

Reinvest dividends

Today

$25/yr

$2/mo

In 5 yrs

$39/yr+60%

$3/mo

In 10 yrs

$63/yr+156%

$5/mo

Today	In 5 yrs	In 10 yrs
$25/yr $2/mo	$39/yr+60% $3/mo	$63/yr+156% $5/mo

Yield-on-cost grows from 2.47% → 6.32% over 10yr

Analysis

Dividend Strengths

Dividend Aristocrat

ATO has raised its dividend for 40 consecutive years — qualifying as a Dividend Aristocrat, demonstrating long-term commitment to shareholder income.

Strong dividend growth rate

The 5-year CAGR of 9.86% meaningfully outpaces inflation, compounding real income growth for long-term holders.

Risks to Watch

Dividend exceeds free cash flow

Free cash flow covers only -2.73× the dividend. The company is paying out more than it generates in cash, which is unsustainable without borrowing or asset sales.