NYSE · BABA
Alibaba Group Holding Limited
Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail
$99.64▼ 2.14% ($2.18)at close
After hours$99.73▲ 0.09%7:59 PM ET
Valuation
Revenue & margin DCF
Verdict: fairly priced. Price above Base.
The price needs 16.6% revenue growth a year for 10 years. Our scenarios assume 2.9–5.0%.
That's 3.6× its past 4-year pace.
Value per share
Base case
$31.36
Price used $99.64 is 3.2× this
USD · TTM ending Jun 30, 2026 · Price Oct 23, 8:02 PM UTC
Revenue each value needs
Revenue today $157B. The price needs $726B by 2036. Base case: $232B. At its recent pace: $247B. Bear to Bull: $208B to $255B.
Revenue today $157B. The price needs $726B by 2036. Base case: $232B. At its recent pace: $247B. Bear to Bull: $208B to $255B.
Revenue in 2036
today $157B
+$494Bmore than the Base case · 3.1×
Value per share · Base case
$31.36
Price $99.64
3.2× this
- 10-yr revenue CAGR
- 4.0%
- Ending operating margin
- 4.2%
- Discount rate
- 6.5%
USD · TTM ending Jun 30, 2026 · Price Oct 23, 8:02 PM UTC
What each scenario assumes. Click a column to start from it.
Price vs Fundamentals
Why The Stock Is Moving
What changed
The stock fell 42.04% over the last year. Revenue grew 4.34% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 13.98% to 4.21%. Free cash flow declined 304.45% over the trailing twelve months. The price is in USD and the financials are reported in CNY, so a currency move can look like a change in valuation.
What the market seems to be pricing
The market is reacting to weaker business momentum more than just compressing the valuation multiple. Even if the shares already screen cheap on P/E, investors are still discounting lower future earnings power.
What would invalidate this read
Operating margin stands at 4.21%. Free cash flow fell 304.45% — a return toward positive territory would undermine the deterioration thesis. If margins and cash flow stabilize while the stock stays depressed, the gap shifts from fundamental damage toward pure multiple compression.
Return analysis
Company profile
Alibaba Group Holding Limited, through its various subsidiaries, furnishes crucial technological infrastructure and extensive marketing channels.
Market multiples
Stock splits
No stock splits recorded for this ticker.
Profitability & growth
Analyst consensus
51
Buy
7
Hold
1
Sell
Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.
Earnings
Actuals vs estimates by quarter, or any quarter against the same one a year earlier.
Next report
Nov 24, 2026
Q2 FY27 · EPS est $1.61 · Revenue est $40.3B
Same quarter, year over year
FY27 YTD -39.3%Each cell vs the same quarter a year earlier (the cell below) · Q1 combined $1.25 vs $2.06 · 0 of 1 quarters up
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
FY total
FY27
—
—
—
FY26
FY25
FY24
—
—
Fiscal year totals
- FY26
- $3.77
- -58.4%
- FY25
- $9.07
- —
Q1 FY27
Reported Aug 20, 2026 · Latest
HoverTap a cell to inspect
Actual
$1.25
Estimate
$1.94
Year over year
-39.3%
Vs prior quarter
n/m
Institutional Sentiment
Alibaba Group Holding Limited · BABA
From Form 13F filings (managers with $100M+). Filings land up to 45 days after quarter end — read this as positioning context, not live fund flow.