NYSE · BSM

Black Stone Minerals, L.P.

Energy · Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

$14.79▲ 0.14% ($0.02)today

As of 11:23 AM ET

52-week

$12.32$15.49

Market cap

$3.14B

P/E

11.08

Volume

89.84K

Shares outstanding

212.50M

What the market price implies · Reverse DCF

To support a price of $14.79, this model requires revenue to grow by 6.39%/yr over the next 10 years, compounded annually.

Historical revenue grew by -4.41%/yr over the past 4 years. The required annual growth rate is 10.80 percentage points higher.

Selected forecast · Base scenario

0.8%/yr · actual 10-year annualized revenue growth

Year 1 growth: 0%

Market-implied · Base operating assumptions + edited margins

6.39%/yr · flat 10-year annualized revenue growth

Reverse DCF solves revenue growth itself using Base operating assumptions and your edited margins. Changing forecast growth alone does not change the implied rate. This is a model-implied requirement, not an analyst forecast.

Valuation

Recommended · Revenue & margin DCF

Price used

$14.79

Estimated value / share

$8.84

Base scenario

This estimate is 40.25% below the price used.

USD · TTM ending 2026-06-30

Latest quarterly growth differs materially from the latest annual pace. It remains an observed growth input; review whether acceleration or a change in the business explains it.

Year 1 growth 0% · Ending margin 30% · Discount rate 7.61%

Assumption scenarios, not statistical confidence intervals.

Method, dates & sources

Estimated from future revenue, operating margins, and the investment needed to support them.

Price timestamp: Sep 17, 2026, 3:23 PM UTC
Financial statement period: TTM ending 2026-06-30
Data refreshed: Sep 17, 2026, 3:24 PM UTC · provider

Why this method?

FCFF is positive, but the series is too unstable to anchor a direct cash-flow CAGR and the business still fails the steady-state comparability checks. Use a revenue-and-margin transition model instead of normalizing and compounding current FCFF.

Is FCFF positive and has it been for 3+ consecutive years? 8 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Is FCFF stable (not swinging >30% year to year)? The largest recent FCFF swing is 139.2%.

Do you have 5+ years of positive FCFF history? 8 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Is the business model structurally similar to what it should be in 10 years? Operating margin moved 47.5 percentage points across the last five years, above the 10.0-point stability threshold, so steady-state FCFF is not a reliable anchor yet.

Price vs Fundamentals

Why The Stock Is Moving

Optimism is getting priced inHigh confidence

1Y Price: 13.94%Revenue (TTM): 12.63%FCF (TTM): 15.86%P/FCF: 73rd pct

What changed

The stock rose 13.94% over the last year. Revenue grew 12.63% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 65.22% to 66.12%. Free cash flow grew 15.86% over the trailing twelve months.

What the market seems to be pricing

The stock is trading toward the richer end of its historical P/FCF range (73rd percentile) while business metrics are improving. More of the upside is already embedded in the multiple now.

What would invalidate this read

Operating margin is at 66.12% — continued expansion would be needed to justify the premium. Revenue growth of 12.63% is encouraging, but any deceleration puts the stretched multiple at risk. This read changes if revenue, margins, and cash flow continue to improve faster than expected — in that case the richer multiple could still prove conservative.

Performance

Return analysis

Company profile

Black Stone Minerals, L.P. and its subsidiaries are primarily engaged in the ownership and active management of oil and natural gas mineral interests.

CEOH. Taylor DeWalch

SectorEnergy

IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production

Employees129

IPO dateApr 30, 2015

https://www.blackstoneminerals.com

Market multiples

Forward P/E—

EV/EBITDA8.54

Enterprise value$2.97B

Stock splits

No stock splits recorded for this ticker.

Profitability & growth

Revenue growth14.44%

Gross margin (FY2025)74.89%▼1.3ppvs FY2024

Operating margin (FY2025)61.75%▼0.4ppvs FY2024

ROE25.59%▼1.0ppvs FY2025

Analyst consensus

RatingBuy

Target price$16.00▲8.18%

Buy

Hold

Sell

Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.

Earnings

Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.

Next report

Nov 2, 2026

Q4 FY26 · EPS est $0.21 · Revenue est $112.71M

View

Dividends

$1.22/shareQuarterlyStretched

BSM pays a dividend with a 8.25% dividend yield, growing at 10.22% annually, covered 0.9× by free cash flow.

Dividend Yield

8.25%

Annual Div / Share

$1.22

5yr CAGR

+10.22%

Doubles every ~7.1yr

Payout Ratio

100.16%

Stretched

Dividend Growth Rate

3yr CAGR

-13.35%

5yr CAGR

+10.22%

10yr CAGR

+1.27%

Dividend Safety

2/10Stretched

Dividend History

Annualized dividend cycles per share

YearAnnual DivYoY

2026$1.22-14.4%

2025$1.43-16.2%

2024$1.70-9.3%

2023$1.88+39.9%

2022$1.34+78.7%

2021$0.75-16.7%

2020$0.90-39.2%

Income Projection

Invest

USD

Growth rate:

Reinvest dividends

Today

$82/yr

$7/mo

In 5 yrs

$134/yr+63%

$11/mo

In 10 yrs

$218/yr+165%

$18/mo

Today	In 5 yrs	In 10 yrs
$82/yr $7/mo	$134/yr+63% $11/mo	$218/yr+165% $18/mo

Yield-on-cost grows from 8.25% → 21.83% over 10yr

Analysis

Dividend Strengths

Strong dividend growth rate

The 5-year CAGR of 10.22% meaningfully outpaces inflation, compounding real income growth for long-term holders.

Risks to Watch

High payout ratio

With 100.16% of earnings paid as dividends, there is limited retained earnings for reinvestment — and a dividend cut becomes more likely if earnings decline.

Dividend exceeds free cash flow

Free cash flow covers only 0.95× the dividend. The company is paying out more than it generates in cash, which is unsustainable without borrowing or asset sales.

NYSE · BSM

Black Stone Minerals, L.P.

Energy · Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

$14.79▲ 0.14% ($0.02)today

As of 11:23 AM ET

52-week

$12.32$15.49

Market cap

$3.14B

P/E

11.08

Volume

89.84K

Shares outstanding

212.50M

What the market price implies · Reverse DCF

To support a price of $14.79, this model requires revenue to grow by 6.39%/yr over the next 10 years, compounded annually.

Historical revenue grew by -4.41%/yr over the past 4 years. The required annual growth rate is 10.80 percentage points higher.

Selected forecast · Base scenario

0.8%/yr · actual 10-year annualized revenue growth

Year 1 growth: 0%

Market-implied · Base operating assumptions + edited margins

6.39%/yr · flat 10-year annualized revenue growth

Valuation

Recommended · Revenue & margin DCF

Price used

$14.79

Estimated value / share

$8.84

Base scenario

This estimate is 40.25% below the price used.

USD · TTM ending 2026-06-30

Latest quarterly growth differs materially from the latest annual pace. It remains an observed growth input; review whether acceleration or a change in the business explains it.

Year 1 growth 0% · Ending margin 30% · Discount rate 7.61%

Assumption scenarios, not statistical confidence intervals.

Method, dates & sources

Estimated from future revenue, operating margins, and the investment needed to support them.

Price timestamp: Sep 17, 2026, 3:23 PM UTC
Financial statement period: TTM ending 2026-06-30
Data refreshed: Sep 17, 2026, 3:24 PM UTC · provider

Why this method?

Is FCFF positive and has it been for 3+ consecutive years? 8 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Is FCFF stable (not swinging >30% year to year)? The largest recent FCFF swing is 139.2%.

Do you have 5+ years of positive FCFF history? 8 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Price vs Fundamentals

Why The Stock Is Moving

Optimism is getting priced inHigh confidence

1Y Price: 13.94%Revenue (TTM): 12.63%FCF (TTM): 15.86%P/FCF: 73rd pct

What changed

What the market seems to be pricing

The stock is trading toward the richer end of its historical P/FCF range (73rd percentile) while business metrics are improving. More of the upside is already embedded in the multiple now.

What would invalidate this read

Performance

Return analysis

Company profile

Black Stone Minerals, L.P. and its subsidiaries are primarily engaged in the ownership and active management of oil and natural gas mineral interests.

CEOH. Taylor DeWalch

SectorEnergy

IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production

Employees129

IPO dateApr 30, 2015

https://www.blackstoneminerals.com

Market multiples

Forward P/E—

EV/EBITDA8.54

Enterprise value$2.97B

Stock splits

No stock splits recorded for this ticker.

Profitability & growth

Revenue growth14.44%

Gross margin (FY2025)74.89%▼1.3ppvs FY2024

Operating margin (FY2025)61.75%▼0.4ppvs FY2024

ROE25.59%▼1.0ppvs FY2025

Analyst consensus

RatingBuy

Target price$16.00▲8.18%

Buy

Hold

Sell

Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.

Earnings

Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.

Next report

Nov 2, 2026

Q4 FY26 · EPS est $0.21 · Revenue est $112.71M

View

Dividends

$1.22/shareQuarterlyStretched

BSM pays a dividend with a 8.25% dividend yield, growing at 10.22% annually, covered 0.9× by free cash flow.

Dividend Yield

8.25%

Annual Div / Share

$1.22

5yr CAGR

+10.22%

Doubles every ~7.1yr

Payout Ratio

100.16%

Stretched

Dividend Growth Rate

3yr CAGR

-13.35%

5yr CAGR

+10.22%

10yr CAGR

+1.27%

Dividend Safety

2/10Stretched

Dividend History

Annualized dividend cycles per share

YearAnnual DivYoY

2026$1.22-14.4%

2025$1.43-16.2%

2024$1.70-9.3%

2023$1.88+39.9%

2022$1.34+78.7%

2021$0.75-16.7%

2020$0.90-39.2%

Income Projection

Invest

USD

Growth rate:

Reinvest dividends

Today

$82/yr

$7/mo

In 5 yrs

$134/yr+63%

$11/mo

In 10 yrs

$218/yr+165%

$18/mo

Today	In 5 yrs	In 10 yrs
$82/yr $7/mo	$134/yr+63% $11/mo	$218/yr+165% $18/mo

Yield-on-cost grows from 8.25% → 21.83% over 10yr

Analysis

Dividend Strengths

Strong dividend growth rate

The 5-year CAGR of 10.22% meaningfully outpaces inflation, compounding real income growth for long-term holders.

Risks to Watch

High payout ratio

With 100.16% of earnings paid as dividends, there is limited retained earnings for reinvestment — and a dividend cut becomes more likely if earnings decline.

Dividend exceeds free cash flow

Free cash flow covers only 0.95× the dividend. The company is paying out more than it generates in cash, which is unsustainable without borrowing or asset sales.