NYSE · CARR

Carrier Global Corporation

Industrials · Industrial - Machinery

$54.39▲ 0.24% ($0.13)at close

After hours$55.21▲ 1.51%7:55 PM ET

52-week

$50.24$76.76

What the market price implies · Reverse DCF

To support a price of $54.39, this model requires Stage 1 FCFF to grow by 11.27%/yr over the next 5 years, compounded annually.

Historical FCFF grew by 0.99%/yr over the past 5 years. The required annual growth rate is 10.28 percentage points higher.

Selected forecast · Base scenario

0.99%/yr · Stage 1 default · years 1–5

Annual overrides take precedence over the Stage 1 default.

Market-implied · Other assumptions held fixed

11.27%/yr · Stage 1 · years 1–5

Stage 1 growth is solved while Stage 2 growth, terminal growth, discount inputs, and annual overrides remain fixed. This is a model-implied requirement, not an analyst forecast.

Valuation

Recommended · Cash-flow DCF

Price used

$54.39

Estimated value / share

$30.80

Base scenario

This estimate is 43.37% below the price used.

USD · TTM ending 2026-06-30

FCFF base normalized by replacing latest capex with the company's trailing median capex-to-revenue ratio.

Historical FCFF CAGR and the default growth rates are taken from the raw historical series. The valuation base is normalized for the current-period DCF.

Reported total debt includes capitalised leases (~4% of the total). They are excluded from net debt and from the WACC weights because rent is already charged inside operating income. The Net Debt shown here is therefore lower than the balance-sheet figure elsewhere on this page.

Stage 1 0.99% · Stage 2 3.5% · Discount rate 10.13%

Assumption scenarios, not statistical confidence intervals.

Method, dates & sources

Estimated from future free cash flow, discounted to its value today.

Price timestamp: Sep 17, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC
Financial statement period: TTM ending 2026-06-30
Data refreshed: Sep 18, 2026, 1:22 AM UTC · provider

Why this method?

FCFF is positive, but the year-to-year swings are too large for a direct CAGR. Normalize the cash-flow base first, then run DCF.

Is FCFF positive and has it been for 3+ consecutive years? 9 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Is FCFF stable (not swinging >30% year to year)? The largest recent FCFF swing is 52.1%.

Price vs Fundamentals

Why The Stock Is Moving

Mixed / unclearLow confidence

1Y Price: -10.51%Revenue (TTM): -1.58%FCF (TTM): 250.74%P/FCF: 36th pct

What changed

The stock fell 10.51% over the last year. Revenue declined 1.58% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 11.13% to 7.05%. Free cash flow grew 250.74% over the trailing twelve months.

What the market seems to be pricing

The stock has moved lower with no clear directional signal from operating metrics. The operating data does not yet tell a clear story — the move may reflect sentiment, sector rotation, or macro factors rather than company-specific earnings power.

What would invalidate this read

Operating margin currently stands at 7.05%. A decisive move in revenue — currently down 1.58% — would be the clearest signal to resolve the ambiguity.

Performance

Return analysis

Company profile

Carrier Global Corporation is a worldwide provider of advanced technological solutions covering heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC), refrigeration, fire safety, security, and intelligent building automation.

CEODavid L. Gitlin

SectorIndustrials

IndustryIndustrial - Machinery

Employees47,000

IPO dateMar 19, 2020

https://www.carrier.com

Market multiples

Forward P/E—

EV/EBITDA15.71

Enterprise value$55.46B

Stock splits

No stock splits recorded for this ticker.

Profitability & growth

Revenue growth3.89%

Gross margin (FY2025)25.86%▼0.7ppvs FY2024

Operating margin (FY2025)8.77%▼0.6ppvs FY2024

ROE8.76%▼1.9ppvs FY2025

Analyst consensus

RatingBuy

Target price$74.75▲37.43%

Buy

Hold

Sell

Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.

Earnings

Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.

Next report

Oct 27, 2026

Q4 FY26 · EPS est $0.81 · Revenue est $5.97B

View

Dividends

$0.95/shareQuarterly5yr growth streakAdequate

CARR pays a dividend with a 1.74% dividend yield, 5 consecutive years of growth, growing at 14.51% annually, covered 2.2× by free cash flow.

Dividend Yield

1.74%

Annual Div / Share

$0.95

5yr CAGR

+14.51%

Doubles every ~5.1yr

Payout Ratio

64.1%

Adequate

Dividend Growth Rate

3yr CAGR

+8.49%

5yr CAGR

+14.51%

Dividend Safety

7/10Adequate

Dividend History

Annualized dividend cycles per share

YearAnnual DivYoY

2026$0.95+9.2%

2025$0.87+14.6%

2024$0.76+2.0%

2023$0.74+23.3%

2022$0.60+25.0%

2021$0.48—

Income Projection

Invest

USD

Growth rate:

Reinvest dividends

Today

$17/yr

$1/mo

In 5 yrs

$31/yr+76%

$3/mo

In 10 yrs

$54/yr+211%

$4/mo

Today	In 5 yrs	In 10 yrs
$17/yr $1/mo	$31/yr+76% $3/mo	$54/yr+211% $4/mo

Long-range projections use a capped 12% annual growth assumption.

Yield-on-cost grows from 1.74% → 5.4% over 10yr

Analysis

Dividend Strengths

Well-covered by free cash flow

The dividend is covered 2.2× by free cash flow, indicating the company generates sufficient cash to sustain and potentially grow the payout without straining its finances.

Strong dividend growth rate

The 5-year CAGR of 14.51% meaningfully outpaces inflation, compounding real income growth for long-term holders.

Risks to Watch

No strong risk signal stands out from the latest period pair.

NYSE · CARR

Carrier Global Corporation

Industrials · Industrial - Machinery

$54.39▲ 0.24% ($0.13)at close

After hours$55.21▲ 1.51%7:55 PM ET

52-week

$50.24$76.76

What the market price implies · Reverse DCF

To support a price of $54.39, this model requires Stage 1 FCFF to grow by 11.27%/yr over the next 5 years, compounded annually.

Historical FCFF grew by 0.99%/yr over the past 5 years. The required annual growth rate is 10.28 percentage points higher.

Selected forecast · Base scenario

0.99%/yr · Stage 1 default · years 1–5

Annual overrides take precedence over the Stage 1 default.

Market-implied · Other assumptions held fixed

11.27%/yr · Stage 1 · years 1–5

Stage 1 growth is solved while Stage 2 growth, terminal growth, discount inputs, and annual overrides remain fixed. This is a model-implied requirement, not an analyst forecast.

Valuation

Recommended · Cash-flow DCF

Price used

$54.39

Estimated value / share

$30.80

Base scenario

This estimate is 43.37% below the price used.

USD · TTM ending 2026-06-30

FCFF base normalized by replacing latest capex with the company's trailing median capex-to-revenue ratio.

Historical FCFF CAGR and the default growth rates are taken from the raw historical series. The valuation base is normalized for the current-period DCF.

Stage 1 0.99% · Stage 2 3.5% · Discount rate 10.13%

Assumption scenarios, not statistical confidence intervals.

Method, dates & sources

Estimated from future free cash flow, discounted to its value today.

Price timestamp: Sep 17, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC
Financial statement period: TTM ending 2026-06-30
Data refreshed: Sep 18, 2026, 1:22 AM UTC · provider

Why this method?

FCFF is positive, but the year-to-year swings are too large for a direct CAGR. Normalize the cash-flow base first, then run DCF.

Is FCFF positive and has it been for 3+ consecutive years? 9 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Is FCFF stable (not swinging >30% year to year)? The largest recent FCFF swing is 52.1%.

Price vs Fundamentals

Why The Stock Is Moving

Mixed / unclearLow confidence

1Y Price: -10.51%Revenue (TTM): -1.58%FCF (TTM): 250.74%P/FCF: 36th pct

What changed

What the market seems to be pricing

What would invalidate this read

Operating margin currently stands at 7.05%. A decisive move in revenue — currently down 1.58% — would be the clearest signal to resolve the ambiguity.

Performance

Return analysis

Company profile

CEODavid L. Gitlin

SectorIndustrials

IndustryIndustrial - Machinery

Employees47,000

IPO dateMar 19, 2020

https://www.carrier.com

Market multiples

Forward P/E—

EV/EBITDA15.71

Enterprise value$55.46B

Stock splits

No stock splits recorded for this ticker.

Profitability & growth

Revenue growth3.89%

Gross margin (FY2025)25.86%▼0.7ppvs FY2024

Operating margin (FY2025)8.77%▼0.6ppvs FY2024

ROE8.76%▼1.9ppvs FY2025

Analyst consensus

RatingBuy

Target price$74.75▲37.43%

Buy

Hold

Sell

Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.

Earnings

Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.

Next report

Oct 27, 2026

Q4 FY26 · EPS est $0.81 · Revenue est $5.97B

View

Dividends

$0.95/shareQuarterly5yr growth streakAdequate

CARR pays a dividend with a 1.74% dividend yield, 5 consecutive years of growth, growing at 14.51% annually, covered 2.2× by free cash flow.

Dividend Yield

1.74%

Annual Div / Share

$0.95

5yr CAGR

+14.51%

Doubles every ~5.1yr

Payout Ratio

64.1%

Adequate

Dividend Growth Rate

3yr CAGR

+8.49%

5yr CAGR

+14.51%

Dividend Safety

7/10Adequate

Dividend History

Annualized dividend cycles per share

YearAnnual DivYoY

2026$0.95+9.2%

2025$0.87+14.6%

2024$0.76+2.0%

2023$0.74+23.3%

2022$0.60+25.0%

2021$0.48—

Income Projection

Invest

USD

Growth rate:

Reinvest dividends

Today

$17/yr

$1/mo

In 5 yrs

$31/yr+76%

$3/mo

In 10 yrs

$54/yr+211%

$4/mo

Today	In 5 yrs	In 10 yrs
$17/yr $1/mo	$31/yr+76% $3/mo	$54/yr+211% $4/mo

Long-range projections use a capped 12% annual growth assumption.

Yield-on-cost grows from 1.74% → 5.4% over 10yr

Analysis

Dividend Strengths

Well-covered by free cash flow

The dividend is covered 2.2× by free cash flow, indicating the company generates sufficient cash to sustain and potentially grow the payout without straining its finances.

Strong dividend growth rate

The 5-year CAGR of 14.51% meaningfully outpaces inflation, compounding real income growth for long-term holders.

Risks to Watch

No strong risk signal stands out from the latest period pair.