NASDAQ · CDNA
CareDx, Inc
Healthcare · Medical - Diagnostics & Research
$87.41▲ 22.22% ($15.89)at close
After hours$87.73▲ 0.37%7:46 PM ET
Valuation
Revenue & margin DCF
Verdict: expensive. Price above all scenarios.
The price needs 62.0% revenue growth a year for 10 years. Our scenarios assume 9.1–15.8%.
That's 9.7× its past 4-year pace.
Value per share
Base case
$8.46
Price used $87.41 is 10.3× this
USD · TTM ending Sep 30, 2026 · Price Oct 30, 8:00 PM UTC
Revenue each value needs
Revenue today $497M. The price needs $61.8B by 2036. Base case: $1.6B. At its recent pace: $925M. Bear to Bull: $1.2B to $2.2B.
Revenue today $497M. The price needs $61.8B by 2036. Base case: $1.6B. At its recent pace: $925M. Bear to Bull: $1.2B to $2.2B.
Revenue in 2036
today $497M
+$60.1Bmore than the Base case · 37.8×
Value per share · Base case
$8.46
Price $87.41
10.3× this
- 10-yr revenue CAGR
- 12.6%
- Ending operating margin
- 0.8%
- Discount rate
- 14.9%
USD · TTM ending Sep 30, 2026 · Price Oct 30, 8:00 PM UTC
What each scenario assumes. Click a column to start from it.
Price vs Fundamentals
Why The Stock Is Moving
What changed
The stock rose 504.08% over the last year. Revenue grew 38.94% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 15.55% to 0.83%. Free cash flow grew 62.01% over the trailing twelve months.
What the market seems to be pricing
The stock is trading toward the richer end of its historical P/FCF range (64th percentile) while business metrics are improving. More of the upside is already embedded in the multiple now.
What would invalidate this read
Operating margin is at 0.83% — continued expansion would be needed to justify the premium. Revenue growth of 38.94% is encouraging, but any deceleration puts the stretched multiple at risk. This read changes if revenue, margins, and cash flow continue to improve faster than expected — in that case the richer multiple could still prove conservative.
Return analysis
Company profile
CareDx, Inc. is a global innovator specializing in the discovery, development, and commercialization of diagnostic and management tools designed for transplant recipients and their healthcare providers.
Market multiples
Stock splits
No stock splits recorded for this ticker.
Profitability & growth
Analyst consensus
11
Buy
3
Hold
0
Sell
Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.
Earnings
Actuals vs estimates by quarter, or any quarter against the same one a year earlier.
Next report
Feb 23, 2027
Q4 FY26 · EPS est $0.36 · Revenue est $134.0M
Same quarter, year over year
FY26 YTD n/mEach cell vs the same quarter a year earlier (the cell below) · Q1–Q3 combined $1.41 vs -$0.32 · all 3 quarters up
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
FY total
FY26
—
FY25
FY24
FY23
—
—
—
—
Fiscal year totals
- FY25
- -$0.20
- -136.7%
- FY24
- $0.54
- —
n/m: last year’s figure was zero, a loss or too small to compare against
Q3 FY26
Reported Oct 29, 2026 · Latest
HoverTap a cell to inspect
Actual
$0.70
Estimate
$0.25
Year over year
n/m
Vs prior quarter
+89.2%
Institutional Sentiment
CareDx, Inc · CDNA
From Form 13F filings (managers with $100M+). Filings land up to 45 days after quarter end — read this as positioning context, not live fund flow.