Reading the tape
NYSE: CF
CF Industries Holdings, Inc.
Basic Materials · Agricultural Inputs
Market Cap
$18.85B
52w High
$141.96
52w Low
$75.42
P/E
13.15
Volume
2.15M
Outstanding Shares
153.62M
Price vs Fundamentals
Why The Stock Is Moving
Optimism is getting priced inModerate confidence
Note: The most recent financial data is over 3 months old. Metrics shown may not reflect the latest reporting period.
1Y Price: 54.09%Revenue (TTM): 19.34%FCF (TTM): 2.91%P/FCF: 71st pct
What changed
The stock rose 54.09% over the last year. Revenue grew 19.34% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 29.33% to 36.65%. Free cash flow grew 2.91% over the trailing twelve months.
What the market seems to be pricing
The stock is trading toward the richer end of its historical P/FCF range (71st percentile) while business metrics are improving. More of the upside is already embedded in the multiple now.
What would invalidate this read
Operating margin is at 36.65% — continued expansion would be needed to justify the premium. Revenue growth of 19.34% is encouraging, but any deceleration puts the stretched multiple at risk. This read changes if revenue, margins, and cash flow continue to improve faster than expected — in that case the richer multiple could still prove conservative.
Company profile
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. manufactures and sells hydrogen and nitrogen products for energy, fertilizer, emissions abatement, and other industrial activities worldwide.
CEOChristopher D. Bohn
SectorBasic Materials
IndustryAgricultural Inputs
Employees2,800
IPO dateAug 11, 2005
Valuation
Forward P/E—
EV/EBITDA4.41
Enterprise value$14.5B
Stock splits
Jun 18, 2015↑ Forward
Every 1 shares became 5
Profitability & growth
Revenue growth22.83%
Gross margin41.28%▲11.02%vs FY2024
Operating margin36.65%▲13.50%vs FY2024
ROE30.07%▲23.09%vs FY2024
Analyst consensus
RatingBuy
Target price$108.89▼11.25%
20
Buy
15
Hold
6
Sell
Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.
Earnings
Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.
Next report
May 6, 2026
Q2 FY26 · EPS est $2.63 · Revenue est $1.84B
View
Dividends
$2.00/shareQuarterlyDividend Achiever · 19yrEx-div May 15, 2026 · in 11dSafeCF pays a dividend with a 1.63% declared yield, 19 consecutive years of growth, growing at 10.76% annually, covered 5.5× by free cash flow.
Declared Yield
1.63%
Annual Div / Share
$2.00
5yr CAGR
+10.76%
Doubles every ~6.8yr
Payout Ratio
22.41%
Safe
Dividend Growth Rate
3yr CAGR
+7.72%
5yr CAGR
+10.76%
10yr CAGR
+5.24%
Dividend Safety
10/10Safe
Dividend History
Annualized dividend cycles per share
YearAnnual DivYoY
2026$2.00+0.0%
2025$2.00+11.1%
2024$1.80+12.5%
2023$1.60+23.1%
2022$1.30+8.3%
2021$1.20+0.0%
2020$1.20+0.0%
Income Projection
Invest
$
Growth rate:
Reinvest dividends
Today
$16/yr
$1/mo
In 5 yrs
$27/yr+67%
$2/mo
In 10 yrs
$45/yr+178%
$4/mo
| Today | In 5 yrs | In 10 yrs |
|---|---|---|
$16/yr $1/mo | $27/yr+67% $2/mo | $45/yr+178% $4/mo |
Yield-on-cost grows from 1.63% → 4.53% over 10yr
Analysis
Dividend Strengths
Dividend Achiever
CF has raised its dividend for 19 consecutive years — qualifying as a Dividend Achiever, demonstrating long-term commitment to shareholder income.
Well-covered by free cash flow
The dividend is covered 5.5× by free cash flow, indicating the company generates sufficient cash to sustain and potentially grow the payout without straining its finances.
Strong dividend growth rate
The 5-year CAGR of 10.76% meaningfully outpaces inflation, compounding real income growth for long-term holders.
Risks to Watch
No strong risk signal stands out from the latest period pair.