NYSE · CF
CF Industries Holdings, Inc.
Basic Materials · Agricultural Inputs
$114.56▼ 0.56% ($0.64)at close
After hours$114.54▼ 0.02%5:44 PM ET
Market cap
$17.60B
P/E
8.40
EPS (TTM)
$13.64
Next earnings
Nov 4, 2026
Valuation
Revenue & margin DCF
Verdict: cheap. Price below all scenarios.
The price holds with revenue shrinking 4.1% a year for 10 years. Our scenarios assume 1.4–4.4%.
That's below its past 4-year pace of 2.0%.
Value per share
Base case
$194.95
Price used $114.56 is 41% below this
USD · TTM ending Jun 30, 2026 · Price Oct 1, 8:00 PM UTC
Revenue each value needs
Revenue today $7.7B. The price needs $5.1B by 2036. Base case: $9.4B. At its recent pace: $9.5B. Bear to Bull: $8.9B to $11.9B.
Revenue today $7.7B. The price needs $5.1B by 2036. Base case: $9.4B. At its recent pace: $9.5B. Bear to Bull: $8.9B to $11.9B.
Revenue in 2036
today $7.7B
−$4.3Bless than the Base case
Value per share · Base case
$194.95
Price $114.56
41% below this
- 10-yr revenue CAGR
- 1.9%
- Ending operating margin
- 27.5%
- Discount rate
- 7.4%
USD · TTM ending Jun 30, 2026 · Price Oct 1, 8:00 PM UTC
What each scenario assumes. Click a column to start from it.
Price vs Fundamentals
Why The Stock Is Moving
Note: The most recent financial data is over 3 months old. Metrics shown may not reflect the latest reporting period.
What changed
The stock rose 32.52% over the last year. Revenue grew 20.04% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 33.36% to 38.12%. Free cash flow grew 6.88% over the trailing twelve months.
What the market seems to be pricing
The stock is trading toward the richer end of its historical P/FCF range (62nd percentile) while business metrics are improving. More of the upside is already embedded in the multiple now.
What would invalidate this read
Operating margin is at 38.12% — continued expansion would be needed to justify the premium. Revenue growth of 20.04% is encouraging, but any deceleration puts the stretched multiple at risk. This read changes if revenue, margins, and cash flow continue to improve faster than expected — in that case the richer multiple could still prove conservative.
Return analysis
Company profile
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. is a global producer and distributor of hydrogen and nitrogen-based products.
Market multiples
Stock splits
Every 1 shares became 5
Profitability & growth
Analyst consensus
21
Buy
15
Hold
6
Sell
Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.
Earnings
Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.
Next report
Nov 4, 2026
Q3 FY26 · EPS est $3.02 · Revenue est $1.79B
View
Institutional Sentiment
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. · CF
From Form 13F filings (managers with $100M+). Filings land up to 45 days after quarter end — read this as positioning context, not live fund flow.