NASDAQ · CHA

Chagee Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares

Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants

$12.35▼ 0.80% ($0.10)at close

After hours$12.29▼ 0.49%7:30 PM ET

52-week

$8.98$18.46

Market cap

$2.36B

P/E

11.93

Volume

1.12M

Shares outstanding

190.76M

Valuation

Recommended · Earnings Power Value

Price used

$12.35

Zero-growth earnings power / share

CN¥77.08

Zero-growth base case

CNY · Financial years 2022–2025 · 4 years normalized

The CNY earnings-power estimate cannot be compared directly with a USD share price.

Operating earnings have been volatile; review the normalized earnings used.

Method, dates & sources

The value of normalized operating earnings assuming no future growth. Conservative and optimistic figures vary the discount rate.

Price timestamp: Sep 10, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC
Financial statement period: Financial years 2022–2025 · 4 years normalized
Data refreshed: Sep 11, 2026, 12:28 AM UTC · provider

Why this method?

Positive FCFF exists, but it is still unstable and the operating history is too short to make a normalized FCFF DCF decision-useful. Use multiples and comparable transactions instead.

Is FCFF positive and has it been for 3+ consecutive years? 4 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Is FCFF stable (not swinging >30% year to year)? The largest recent FCFF swing is 8644.3%. Latest capex is 14.2x the prior median, which points to a capex supercycle that should be normalized first.

Do you have 5+ years of positive FCFF history? Only 4 consecutive positive FCFF years are available, and the company only has 1 years of public or statement history.

Price vs Fundamentals

Why The Stock Is Moving

Likely fundamental deteriorationModerate confidence

1Y Price: -27.4%Revenue (TTM): -3.43%FCF (TTM): -65%

What changed

The stock fell 27.4% over the last year. Revenue declined 3.43% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 17.39% to 11.34%. Free cash flow declined 65% over the trailing twelve months.

What the market seems to be pricing

The market appears to be responding to weaker operating momentum rather than only rerating the stock.

What would invalidate this read

Operating margin stands at 11.34%. Revenue declined 3.43% — this read reverses if that trend stabilizes. Free cash flow fell 65% — a return toward positive territory would undermine the deterioration thesis. If margins and cash flow stabilize while the stock stays depressed, the gap shifts from fundamental damage toward pure multiple compression.

Performance

Monthly returns

Company profile

Chagee Holdings Limited, operating through its various subordinate entities, is engaged in the ownership, operation, and licensing of teahouse establishments bearing the distinctive CHAGEE brand.

CEOJunjie Zhang

SectorConsumer Cyclical

IndustryRestaurants

Employees4,800

IPO dateApr 17, 2025

https://www.chagee.us

Market multiples

Forward P/E—

EV/EBITDA3.88

Enterprise value$6.85B

Stock splits

No stock splits recorded for this ticker.

Profitability & growth

Revenue growth2.2%

Gross margin41.17%0.0ppvs FY2024

Operating margin11.34%▼12.8ppvs FY2024

ROE16.54%▼6.9ppvs FY2025

Analyst consensus

RatingBuy

Target price$13.70▲10.93%

Buy

Hold

Sell

Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.

Earnings

Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.

Next report

Nov 27, 2026

Q4 FY26 · EPS est $0.37 · Revenue est $585.17M

View

Dividends

$5.83/shareStretched

CHA pays a dividend with a 47.21% forward yield, covered 1.0× by free cash flow.

Forward Yield

47.21%

Annual Div / Share

$5.83

CAGR

—

Payout Ratio

105.29%

Stretched

Dividend Growth Rate

Dividend Safety

2/10Stretched

Income Projection

Invest

Growth rate:

Reinvest dividends

Today

$472/yr

$39/mo

In 5 yrs

$472/yr

$39/mo

In 10 yrs

$472/yr

$39/mo

Today	In 5 yrs	In 10 yrs
$472/yr $39/mo	$472/yr $39/mo	$472/yr $39/mo

Analysis

Dividend Strengths

No strong strength signal stands out from the latest period pair.

Risks to Watch

High payout ratio

With 105.29% of earnings paid as dividends, there is limited retained earnings for reinvestment — and a dividend cut becomes more likely if earnings decline.

Dividend exceeds free cash flow

Free cash flow covers only 0.97× the dividend. The company is paying out more than it generates in cash, which is unsustainable without borrowing or asset sales.

NASDAQ · CHA

Chagee Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares

Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants

$12.35▼ 0.80% ($0.10)at close

After hours$12.29▼ 0.49%7:30 PM ET

52-week

$8.98$18.46

Market cap

$2.36B

P/E

11.93

Volume

1.12M

Shares outstanding

190.76M

Valuation

Recommended · Earnings Power Value

Price used

$12.35

Zero-growth earnings power / share

CN¥77.08

Zero-growth base case

CNY · Financial years 2022–2025 · 4 years normalized

The CNY earnings-power estimate cannot be compared directly with a USD share price.

Operating earnings have been volatile; review the normalized earnings used.

Method, dates & sources

The value of normalized operating earnings assuming no future growth. Conservative and optimistic figures vary the discount rate.

Price timestamp: Sep 10, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC
Financial statement period: Financial years 2022–2025 · 4 years normalized
Data refreshed: Sep 11, 2026, 12:28 AM UTC · provider

Why this method?

Positive FCFF exists, but it is still unstable and the operating history is too short to make a normalized FCFF DCF decision-useful. Use multiples and comparable transactions instead.

Is FCFF positive and has it been for 3+ consecutive years? 4 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Is FCFF stable (not swinging >30% year to year)? The largest recent FCFF swing is 8644.3%. Latest capex is 14.2x the prior median, which points to a capex supercycle that should be normalized first.

Do you have 5+ years of positive FCFF history? Only 4 consecutive positive FCFF years are available, and the company only has 1 years of public or statement history.

Price vs Fundamentals

Why The Stock Is Moving

Likely fundamental deteriorationModerate confidence

1Y Price: -27.4%Revenue (TTM): -3.43%FCF (TTM): -65%

What changed

What the market seems to be pricing

The market appears to be responding to weaker operating momentum rather than only rerating the stock.

What would invalidate this read

Performance

Monthly returns

Company profile

Chagee Holdings Limited, operating through its various subordinate entities, is engaged in the ownership, operation, and licensing of teahouse establishments bearing the distinctive CHAGEE brand.

CEOJunjie Zhang

SectorConsumer Cyclical

IndustryRestaurants

Employees4,800

IPO dateApr 17, 2025

https://www.chagee.us

Market multiples

Forward P/E—

EV/EBITDA3.88

Enterprise value$6.85B

Stock splits

No stock splits recorded for this ticker.

Profitability & growth

Revenue growth2.2%

Gross margin41.17%0.0ppvs FY2024

Operating margin11.34%▼12.8ppvs FY2024

ROE16.54%▼6.9ppvs FY2025

Analyst consensus

RatingBuy

Target price$13.70▲10.93%

Buy

Hold

Sell

Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.

Earnings

Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.

Next report

Nov 27, 2026

Q4 FY26 · EPS est $0.37 · Revenue est $585.17M

View

Dividends

$5.83/shareStretched

CHA pays a dividend with a 47.21% forward yield, covered 1.0× by free cash flow.

Forward Yield

47.21%

Annual Div / Share

$5.83

CAGR

—

Payout Ratio

105.29%

Stretched

Dividend Growth Rate

Dividend Safety

2/10Stretched

Income Projection

Invest

Growth rate:

Reinvest dividends

Today

$472/yr

$39/mo

In 5 yrs

$472/yr

$39/mo

In 10 yrs

$472/yr

$39/mo

Today	In 5 yrs	In 10 yrs
$472/yr $39/mo	$472/yr $39/mo	$472/yr $39/mo

Analysis

Dividend Strengths

No strong strength signal stands out from the latest period pair.

Risks to Watch

High payout ratio

With 105.29% of earnings paid as dividends, there is limited retained earnings for reinvestment — and a dividend cut becomes more likely if earnings decline.

Dividend exceeds free cash flow

Free cash flow covers only 0.97× the dividend. The company is paying out more than it generates in cash, which is unsustainable without borrowing or asset sales.