NASDAQ · CHA

Chagee Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares

Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants

$12.36▼ 0.80% ($0.10)at close

After hours$12.30▼ 0.49%7:30 PM ET

52-week

$8.98$17.60

Market cap

$2.36B

P/E

11.88

EPS (TTM)

$1.04

Valuation

Earnings power value

Zero-growth earnings power / share · Zero-growth base

CN¥87.40

CNY · Financial years 2022–2025 · 4 years normalized · Price Oct 23, 8:00 PM UTC

Operating earnings have been volatile; review the normalized earnings used.

The CNY earnings-power estimate cannot be compared directly with a USD share price.

CNY · Financial years 2022–2025 · 4 years normalized · Price Oct 23, 8:00 PM UTC

What is this business worth assuming zero future growth?

Applicable — Volatile

EPV Applicable — Earnings Are Volatile

Earnings swing year to year. The trimmed mean removes outliers, but EPV carries higher uncertainty. Consider it a rough range rather than a precise estimate.

Conservative

CN¥78.84

WACC: 12.18% (+2%)

Base Case

CN¥87.40

WACC: 10.18% · Base sensitivity

Optimistic

CN¥100.15

WACC: 8.18% (−2%)

EPV / Share

CN¥87.40

CNY — not comparable to a USD price

Price used

$12.36

Valuation reference price

Upside / Downside

—

Normalized EBIT

CN¥1.31B

median

WACC

10.18%

CAPM-derived

Implied Growth

—

N/A

Tax Rate

21.42%

effective rate

EPV / Capital

15.9×

Strong Earnings Premium

10Y FCFF CAGR

—

N/A

FCFF Conversion

—

N/A

About EPV

Earnings Power Value (Greenwald) asks: what is this business worth if it never grows again? It capitalizes normalized after-tax operating earnings at the cost of capital. EPV is best used as a baseline for stable, mature businesses — not as a ceiling or guaranteed floor, since business conditions may change. Compare it to asset value: if EPV significantly exceeds accounting book capital, that gap is consistent with competitive advantage, though a single snapshot cannot confirm how wide or durable it is.

Price vs Fundamentals

Why The Stock Is Moving

Likely fundamental deteriorationModerate confidence

1Y Price: -29.57%Revenue (TTM): -3.43%FCF (TTM): -65%

What changed

The stock fell 29.57% over the last year. Revenue declined 3.43% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 17.39% to 11.34%. Free cash flow declined 65% over the trailing twelve months. The price is in USD and the financials are reported in CNY, so a currency move can look like a change in valuation.

What the market seems to be pricing

The market appears to be responding to weaker operating momentum rather than only rerating the stock.

What would invalidate this read

Operating margin stands at 11.34%. Revenue declined 3.43% — this read reverses if that trend stabilizes. Free cash flow fell 65% — a return toward positive territory would undermine the deterioration thesis. If margins and cash flow stabilize while the stock stays depressed, the gap shifts from fundamental damage toward pure multiple compression.

Return analysis

Company profile

Chagee Holdings Limited, operating through its various subordinate entities, is engaged in the ownership, operation, and licensing of teahouse establishments bearing the distinctive CHAGEE brand.

CEOJunjie Zhang

SectorConsumer Cyclical

IndustryRestaurants

Employees4,800

IPO dateApr 17, 2025

https://www.chagee.us

Market multiples

Forward P/E—

EV/EBITDA (FY2025 year-end)3.88

Enterprise value (FY2025 year-end)$6.85B

Stock splits

No stock splits recorded for this ticker.

Profitability & growth

Revenue growth (Q2 FY26 YoY)2.2%

Gross margin (FY2025)45.84%0.0ppvs FY2024

Operating margin (FY2025)10.44%▼12.8ppvs FY2024

ROE (TTM to Jun 2026)16.54%▼6.9ppvs FY2025

Analyst consensus

RatingBuy

Target price$13.94▲12.78%

Buy

Hold

Sell

Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.

Earnings

Actuals vs estimates by quarter, or any quarter against the same one a year earlier.

Next report

Nov 27, 2026

Q3 FY26 · EPS est $0.39 · Revenue est $582.0M

Same quarter, year over year

FY26 YTD -25.3%

Each cell vs the same quarter a year earlier (the cell below) · Q1–Q2 combined $0.44 vs $0.59 · 1 of 2 quarters up

FY total

FY26

—

FY25

—

FY24

—

SlowerFaster growth(darkest from 558%)

BeatMissIn lineYear-ago cell

Q2 FY26

Reported Aug 28, 2026 · Latest

HoverTap a cell to inspect

Actual

$0.37

Beat by 19.4%

Estimate

$0.31

Street consensus

Year over year

+657.6%

vs Q2 FY25 · $0.05

Vs prior quarter

-2.6%

vs May 29 '26 · $0.38

Price range $9.16-$13.19 · daily closes Apr 1-Jun 30

Institutional Sentiment

Chagee Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares · CHA

From Form 13F filings (managers with $100M+). Filings land up to 45 days after quarter end — read this as positioning context, not live fund flow.

NASDAQ · CHA

Chagee Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares

Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants

$12.36▼ 0.80% ($0.10)at close

After hours$12.30▼ 0.49%7:30 PM ET

52-week

$8.98$17.60

Market cap

$2.36B

P/E

11.88

EPS (TTM)

$1.04

Valuation

Earnings power value

Zero-growth earnings power / share · Zero-growth base

CN¥87.40

CNY · Financial years 2022–2025 · 4 years normalized · Price Oct 23, 8:00 PM UTC

Operating earnings have been volatile; review the normalized earnings used.

The CNY earnings-power estimate cannot be compared directly with a USD share price.

CNY · Financial years 2022–2025 · 4 years normalized · Price Oct 23, 8:00 PM UTC

What is this business worth assuming zero future growth?

Applicable — Volatile

EPV Applicable — Earnings Are Volatile

Earnings swing year to year. The trimmed mean removes outliers, but EPV carries higher uncertainty. Consider it a rough range rather than a precise estimate.

Conservative

CN¥78.84

WACC: 12.18% (+2%)

Base Case

CN¥87.40

WACC: 10.18% · Base sensitivity

Optimistic

CN¥100.15

WACC: 8.18% (−2%)

EPV / Share

CN¥87.40

CNY — not comparable to a USD price

Price used

$12.36

Valuation reference price

Upside / Downside

—

Normalized EBIT

CN¥1.31B

median

WACC

10.18%

CAPM-derived

Implied Growth

—

N/A

Tax Rate

21.42%

effective rate

EPV / Capital

15.9×

Strong Earnings Premium

10Y FCFF CAGR

—

N/A

FCFF Conversion

—

N/A

About EPV

Price vs Fundamentals

Why The Stock Is Moving

Likely fundamental deteriorationModerate confidence

1Y Price: -29.57%Revenue (TTM): -3.43%FCF (TTM): -65%

What changed

What the market seems to be pricing

The market appears to be responding to weaker operating momentum rather than only rerating the stock.

What would invalidate this read

Return analysis

Company profile

Chagee Holdings Limited, operating through its various subordinate entities, is engaged in the ownership, operation, and licensing of teahouse establishments bearing the distinctive CHAGEE brand.

CEOJunjie Zhang

SectorConsumer Cyclical

IndustryRestaurants

Employees4,800

IPO dateApr 17, 2025

https://www.chagee.us

Market multiples

Forward P/E—

EV/EBITDA (FY2025 year-end)3.88

Enterprise value (FY2025 year-end)$6.85B

Stock splits

No stock splits recorded for this ticker.

Profitability & growth

Revenue growth (Q2 FY26 YoY)2.2%

Gross margin (FY2025)45.84%0.0ppvs FY2024

Operating margin (FY2025)10.44%▼12.8ppvs FY2024

ROE (TTM to Jun 2026)16.54%▼6.9ppvs FY2025

Analyst consensus

RatingBuy

Target price$13.94▲12.78%

Buy

Hold

Sell

Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.

Earnings

Actuals vs estimates by quarter, or any quarter against the same one a year earlier.

Next report

Nov 27, 2026

Q3 FY26 · EPS est $0.39 · Revenue est $582.0M

Same quarter, year over year

FY26 YTD -25.3%

Each cell vs the same quarter a year earlier (the cell below) · Q1–Q2 combined $0.44 vs $0.59 · 1 of 2 quarters up

FY total

FY26

—

FY25

—

FY24

—

SlowerFaster growth(darkest from 558%)

BeatMissIn lineYear-ago cell

Q2 FY26

Reported Aug 28, 2026 · Latest

HoverTap a cell to inspect

Actual

$0.37

Beat by 19.4%

Estimate

$0.31

Street consensus

Year over year

+657.6%

vs Q2 FY25 · $0.05

Vs prior quarter

-2.6%

vs May 29 '26 · $0.38

Price range $9.16-$13.19 · daily closes Apr 1-Jun 30

Institutional Sentiment

Chagee Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares · CHA

From Form 13F filings (managers with $100M+). Filings land up to 45 days after quarter end — read this as positioning context, not live fund flow.