NYSE · CMG
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.
Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants
$31.59▼ 3.34% ($1.09)at close
After hours$31.60▲ 0.03%7:54 PM ET
Market cap
$40.52B
P/E
28.72
EPS (TTM)
$1.10
Next earnings
Oct 28, 2026
Valuation
Cash-flow DCF
Verdict: fairly priced. Price above Base.
The price needs 13.5% free cash flow growth a year for 5 years. Our scenarios assume 1.8–25.0%.
That's 1.2× its past 10-year pace.
Value per share
Base case
$29.24
Price used $31.59 is 8% above this
USD · TTM ending Jun 30, 2026 · Price Oct 9, 8:02 PM UTC
FCFF base normalized by replacing latest capex with the company's trailing median capex-to-revenue ratio.
2 more notes
Historical FCFF CAGR and the default growth rates are taken from the raw historical series. The valuation base is normalized for the current-period DCF.
Reported total debt includes capitalised leases (~100% of the total). They are excluded from net debt and from the WACC weights because rent is already charged inside operating income. The Net Debt shown here is therefore lower than the balance-sheet figure elsewhere on this page.
Free cash flow each value needs
Free cash flow today $1.4B. The price needs $3.6B by 2036. Base case: $3.3B. At its recent pace: $4.2B. Bear to Bull: $1.8B to $8.1B.
Free cash flow today $1.4B. The price needs $3.6B by 2036. Base case: $3.3B. At its recent pace: $4.2B. Bear to Bull: $1.8B to $8.1B.
Free cash flow in 2036
today $1.4B
+$294Mmore than the Base case · 1.1×
Value per share · Base case
$29.24
Price $31.59
8% above this
- Stage 1 growth, yrs 1–5
- 11.6%
- Stage 2 growth, yrs 6–10
- 6.4%
- Discount rate
- 9.3%
FCFF base normalized by replacing latest capex with the company's trailing median capex-to-revenue ratio.
2 more notes
Historical FCFF CAGR and the default growth rates are taken from the raw historical series. The valuation base is normalized for the current-period DCF.
Reported total debt includes capitalised leases (~100% of the total). They are excluded from net debt and from the WACC weights because rent is already charged inside operating income. The Net Debt shown here is therefore lower than the balance-sheet figure elsewhere on this page.
USD · TTM ending Jun 30, 2026 · Price Oct 9, 8:02 PM UTC
What each scenario assumes. Click a column to start from it.
Price vs Fundamentals
Why The Stock Is Moving
What changed
The stock fell 22.74% over the last year. Revenue grew 7.31% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 16.91% to 15.2%. Free cash flow grew 7.04% over the trailing twelve months.
What the market seems to be pricing
The stock has moved lower against modestly improving underlying metrics. The operating data does not yet tell a clear story — the move may reflect sentiment, sector rotation, or macro factors rather than company-specific earnings power.
What would invalidate this read
Operating margin currently stands at 15.2%. A decisive move in revenue — currently up 7.31% — would be the clearest signal to resolve the ambiguity.
Return analysis
Company profile
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., along with its affiliated companies, oversees the ownership and daily running of Chipotle Mexican Grill eateries.
Market multiples
Stock splits
Every 1 shares became 50
Profitability & growth
Analyst consensus
46
Buy
21
Hold
0
Sell
Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.
Earnings
Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.
Next report
Oct 28, 2026
Q3 FY26 · EPS est $0.29 · Revenue est $3.28B
View
Institutional Sentiment
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. · CMG
From Form 13F filings (managers with $100M+). Filings land up to 45 days after quarter end — read this as positioning context, not live fund flow.