NYSE · COP

ConocoPhillips

Energy · Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

$131.83▼ 1.02% ($1.36)at close

As of 4:00 PM ET

52-week

$85.57$141.62

Market cap

$160.61B

P/E

17.25

EPS (TTM)

$7.64

Next earnings

Nov 5, 2026

What the market price implies · Reverse DCF

To support a price of $131.83, this model requires revenue to grow by 11.96%/yr over the next 10 years, compounded annually.

Historical revenue grew by 6.49%/yr over the past 4 years. The required annual growth rate is 5.47 percentage points higher.

Selected forecast · Base scenario

8.68%/yr · actual 10-year annualized revenue growth

Year 1 growth: 13.61%

Market-implied · Base operating assumptions + edited margins

11.96%/yr · flat 10-year annualized revenue growth

Reverse DCF solves revenue growth itself using Base operating assumptions and your edited margins. Changing forecast growth alone does not change the implied rate. This is a model-implied requirement, not an analyst forecast.

Valuation

Recommended · Revenue & margin DCF

Price used

$131.83

Estimated value / share

$103.63

Base scenario

This estimate is 21.39% below the price used.

USD · TTM ending 2026-06-30

Latest quarterly growth differs materially from the latest annual pace. It remains an observed growth input; review whether acceleration or a change in the business explains it.

Year 1 growth 13.61% · Ending margin 12.68% · Discount rate 7.23%

Assumption scenarios, not statistical confidence intervals.

Method, dates & sources

Estimated from future revenue, operating margins, and the investment needed to support them.

Price timestamp: Sep 18, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC
Financial statement period: TTM ending 2026-06-30
Data refreshed: Sep 20, 2026, 10:18 AM UTC · provider

Why this method?

FCFF is positive, but the series is too unstable to anchor a direct cash-flow CAGR and the business still fails the steady-state comparability checks. Use a revenue-and-margin transition model instead of normalizing and compounding current FCFF.

Is FCFF positive and has it been for 3+ consecutive years? 5 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Is FCFF stable (not swinging >30% year to year)? The largest recent FCFF swing is 161.8%.

Do you have 5+ years of positive FCFF history? 5 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Is the business model structurally similar to what it should be in 10 years? Revenue is still growing 36.8%, above the 15.0% maturity threshold, so a steady-state FCFF model would lean too heavily on a business still scaling.

Price vs Fundamentals

Why The Stock Is Moving

Fundamentals are supporting the moveHigh confidence

1Y Price: 41.02%Revenue (TTM): 9.6%FCF (TTM): 183.03%P/FCF: 22nd pct

What changed

The stock rose 41.02% over the last year. Revenue grew 9.6% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 21.98% to 21.92%. Free cash flow grew 183.03% over the trailing twelve months.

What the market seems to be pricing

The stock move broadly lines up with stronger business momentum, and the shares are still only around the 22nd percentile of their historical P/FCF range.

What would invalidate this read

Operating margin is at 21.92%. Revenue grew 9.6% — this thesis depends on that trajectory holding. If revenue growth, margins, or free cash flow roll over while the stock keeps climbing, more of the move would be coming from multiple expansion than business progress.

Performance

Return analysis

Company profile

ConocoPhillips is an energy company that engages in the global exploration, production, transportation, and marketing of various resources, including crude petroleum, bitumen, natural gas, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and natural gas liquids (NGLs).

CEOAndrew O'Brien

SectorEnergy

IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production

Employees9,600

IPO dateDec 31, 1981

https://www.conocophillips.com

Market multiples

Forward P/E—

EV/EBITDA5.25

Enterprise value$134.15B

Stock splits

May 1, 2012↑ Forward

Every 1000000 shares became 1311791

+31%

Jun 2, 2005↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

Jul 5, 1985↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 3

+200%

Jun 13, 1977↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

Profitability & growth

Revenue growth36.83%

Gross margin (FY2025)25.09%▼4.8ppvs FY2024

Operating margin (FY2025)19.24%▼4.1ppvs FY2024

ROE14.18%▲1.8ppvs FY2025

Analyst consensus

RatingBuy

Target price$152.27▲15.50%

Buy

Hold

Sell

Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.

Earnings

Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.

Next report

Nov 5, 2026

Q4 FY26 · EPS est $2.58 · Revenue est $17.4B

View

Dividends

$3.36/shareQuarterlySafe

COP pays a dividend with a 2.55% dividend yield, growing at 13.48% annually, covered 4.2× by free cash flow.

Dividend Yield

2.55%

Annual Div / Share

$3.36

5yr CAGR

+13.48%

Doubles every ~5.5yr

Payout Ratio

43.85%

Safe

Dividend Growth Rate

3yr CAGR

-15.6%

5yr CAGR

+13.48%

10yr CAGR

+0.79%

Dividend Safety

9/10Safe

Dividend History

Annual dividends paid per share

YearAnnual DivYoY

2025$3.18+1.9%

2024$3.12-20.2%

2023$3.91-26.1%

2022$5.29+146.0%

2021$2.15+27.2%

2020$1.69+26.6%

2019$1.34+15.1%

Income Projection

Invest

USD

Growth rate:

Reinvest dividends

Today

$25/yr

$2/mo

In 5 yrs

$45/yr+76%

$4/mo

In 10 yrs

$79/yr+211%

$7/mo

Today	In 5 yrs	In 10 yrs
$25/yr $2/mo	$45/yr+76% $4/mo	$79/yr+211% $7/mo

Long-range projections use a capped 12% annual growth assumption.

Yield-on-cost grows from 2.55% → 7.92% over 10yr

Analysis

Dividend Strengths

Well-covered by free cash flow

The dividend is covered 4.2× by free cash flow, indicating the company generates sufficient cash to sustain and potentially grow the payout without straining its finances.

Strong dividend growth rate

The 5-year CAGR of 13.48% meaningfully outpaces inflation, compounding real income growth for long-term holders.

Risks to Watch

No strong risk signal stands out from the latest period pair.

NYSE · COP

ConocoPhillips

Energy · Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

$131.83▼ 1.02% ($1.36)at close

As of 4:00 PM ET

52-week

$85.57$141.62

Market cap

$160.61B

P/E

17.25

EPS (TTM)

$7.64

Next earnings

Nov 5, 2026

What the market price implies · Reverse DCF

To support a price of $131.83, this model requires revenue to grow by 11.96%/yr over the next 10 years, compounded annually.

Historical revenue grew by 6.49%/yr over the past 4 years. The required annual growth rate is 5.47 percentage points higher.

Selected forecast · Base scenario

8.68%/yr · actual 10-year annualized revenue growth

Year 1 growth: 13.61%

Market-implied · Base operating assumptions + edited margins

11.96%/yr · flat 10-year annualized revenue growth

Valuation

Recommended · Revenue & margin DCF

Price used

$131.83

Estimated value / share

$103.63

Base scenario

This estimate is 21.39% below the price used.

USD · TTM ending 2026-06-30

Latest quarterly growth differs materially from the latest annual pace. It remains an observed growth input; review whether acceleration or a change in the business explains it.

Year 1 growth 13.61% · Ending margin 12.68% · Discount rate 7.23%

Assumption scenarios, not statistical confidence intervals.

Method, dates & sources

Estimated from future revenue, operating margins, and the investment needed to support them.

Price timestamp: Sep 18, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC
Financial statement period: TTM ending 2026-06-30
Data refreshed: Sep 20, 2026, 10:18 AM UTC · provider

Why this method?

Is FCFF positive and has it been for 3+ consecutive years? 5 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Is FCFF stable (not swinging >30% year to year)? The largest recent FCFF swing is 161.8%.

Do you have 5+ years of positive FCFF history? 5 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Price vs Fundamentals

Why The Stock Is Moving

Fundamentals are supporting the moveHigh confidence

1Y Price: 41.02%Revenue (TTM): 9.6%FCF (TTM): 183.03%P/FCF: 22nd pct

What changed

The stock rose 41.02% over the last year. Revenue grew 9.6% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 21.98% to 21.92%. Free cash flow grew 183.03% over the trailing twelve months.

What the market seems to be pricing

The stock move broadly lines up with stronger business momentum, and the shares are still only around the 22nd percentile of their historical P/FCF range.

What would invalidate this read

Performance

Return analysis

Company profile

CEOAndrew O'Brien

SectorEnergy

IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production

Employees9,600

IPO dateDec 31, 1981

https://www.conocophillips.com

Market multiples

Forward P/E—

EV/EBITDA5.25

Enterprise value$134.15B

Stock splits

May 1, 2012↑ Forward

Every 1000000 shares became 1311791

+31%

Jun 2, 2005↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

Jul 5, 1985↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 3

+200%

Jun 13, 1977↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

Profitability & growth

Revenue growth36.83%

Gross margin (FY2025)25.09%▼4.8ppvs FY2024

Operating margin (FY2025)19.24%▼4.1ppvs FY2024

ROE14.18%▲1.8ppvs FY2025

Analyst consensus

RatingBuy

Target price$152.27▲15.50%

Buy

Hold

Sell

Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.

Earnings

Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.

Next report

Nov 5, 2026

Q4 FY26 · EPS est $2.58 · Revenue est $17.4B

View

Dividends

$3.36/shareQuarterlySafe

COP pays a dividend with a 2.55% dividend yield, growing at 13.48% annually, covered 4.2× by free cash flow.

Dividend Yield

2.55%

Annual Div / Share

$3.36

5yr CAGR

+13.48%

Doubles every ~5.5yr

Payout Ratio

43.85%

Safe

Dividend Growth Rate

3yr CAGR

-15.6%

5yr CAGR

+13.48%

10yr CAGR

+0.79%

Dividend Safety

9/10Safe

Dividend History

Annual dividends paid per share

YearAnnual DivYoY

2025$3.18+1.9%

2024$3.12-20.2%

2023$3.91-26.1%

2022$5.29+146.0%

2021$2.15+27.2%

2020$1.69+26.6%

2019$1.34+15.1%

Income Projection

Invest

USD

Growth rate:

Reinvest dividends

Today

$25/yr

$2/mo

In 5 yrs

$45/yr+76%

$4/mo

In 10 yrs

$79/yr+211%

$7/mo

Today	In 5 yrs	In 10 yrs
$25/yr $2/mo	$45/yr+76% $4/mo	$79/yr+211% $7/mo

Long-range projections use a capped 12% annual growth assumption.

Yield-on-cost grows from 2.55% → 7.92% over 10yr

Analysis

Dividend Strengths

Well-covered by free cash flow

The dividend is covered 4.2× by free cash flow, indicating the company generates sufficient cash to sustain and potentially grow the payout without straining its finances.

Strong dividend growth rate

The 5-year CAGR of 13.48% meaningfully outpaces inflation, compounding real income growth for long-term holders.

Risks to Watch

No strong risk signal stands out from the latest period pair.