NASDAQ · CRTO
Criteo S.A.
Communication Services · Advertising Agencies
$14.97▲ 2.18% ($0.32)at close
As of 4:00 PM ET
Valuation
Cash-flow DCF
Verdict: cheap. Price below all scenarios.
The price holds with free cash flow shrinking 40.1% a year for 5 years. Our scenarios assume −2.2–25.0%.
That's below its past 10-year pace of 12.8%.
Value per share
Base case
$167.70
Price used $14.97 is 91% below this
USD · TTM ending Jun 30, 2026 · Price Nov 2, 9:00 PM UTC
FCFF base normalized by replacing latest capex with the company's trailing median capex-to-revenue ratio.
5 more notes
CapEx normalization was capped: company appears to be in a multi-year investment cycle. Median-based capex floor applied at 60% of TTM capex.
Historical FCFF CAGR and the default growth rates are taken from the raw historical series. The valuation base is normalized for the current-period DCF.
Market beta (0.29) is below the minimum default of 0.5 — short lookback windows can understate systematic risk. Beta floored at 0.5 for default assumptions; adjust manually if needed.
Reported total debt includes capitalised leases (~93% of the total). They are excluded from net debt and from the WACC weights because rent is already charged inside operating income. The Net Debt shown here is therefore lower than the balance-sheet figure elsewhere on this page.
This estimate is at least 3× the price used. Review the assumptions behind the gap.
Free cash flow each value needs
Free cash flow today $183M. The price needs $19.8M by 2036. Base case: $468M. At its recent pace: $608M. Bear to Bull: $194M to $1.1B.
Free cash flow today $183M. The price needs $19.8M by 2036. Base case: $468M. At its recent pace: $608M. Bear to Bull: $194M to $1.1B.
Free cash flow in 2036
today $183M
−$448Mless than the Base case
Value per share · Base case
$167.70
Price $14.97
91% below this
- Stage 1 growth, yrs 1–5
- 12.8%
- Stage 2 growth, yrs 6–10
- 7.0%
- Discount rate
- 7.1%
FCFF base normalized by replacing latest capex with the company's trailing median capex-to-revenue ratio.
5 more notes
CapEx normalization was capped: company appears to be in a multi-year investment cycle. Median-based capex floor applied at 60% of TTM capex.
Historical FCFF CAGR and the default growth rates are taken from the raw historical series. The valuation base is normalized for the current-period DCF.
Market beta (0.29) is below the minimum default of 0.5 — short lookback windows can understate systematic risk. Beta floored at 0.5 for default assumptions; adjust manually if needed.
Reported total debt includes capitalised leases (~93% of the total). They are excluded from net debt and from the WACC weights because rent is already charged inside operating income. The Net Debt shown here is therefore lower than the balance-sheet figure elsewhere on this page.
This estimate is at least 3× the price used. Review the assumptions behind the gap.
USD · TTM ending Jun 30, 2026 · Price Nov 2, 9:00 PM UTC
What each scenario assumes. Click a column to start from it.
Price vs Fundamentals
Why The Stock Is Moving
What changed
The stock fell 32.99% over the last year. Revenue declined 4.24% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 9.39% to 8.02%. Free cash flow declined 8.92% over the trailing twelve months.
What the market seems to be pricing
The market is reacting to weaker business momentum more than just compressing the valuation multiple. Even if the shares already screen cheap on P/FCF, investors are still discounting lower future earnings power.
What would invalidate this read
Operating margin stands at 8.02%. Revenue declined 4.24% — this read reverses if that trend stabilizes. Free cash flow fell 8.92% — a return toward positive territory would undermine the deterioration thesis. If margins and cash flow stabilize while the stock stays depressed, the gap shifts from fundamental damage toward pure multiple compression.
Return analysis
Company profile
Criteo S.A., a technology company, provides platform to connects the commerce ecosystem for brands, agencies, retailers, and media owners to drive measurable business outcomes in North and South America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia-Pacific.
Market multiples
Stock splits
No stock splits recorded for this ticker.
Profitability & growth
Analyst consensus
21
Buy
13
Hold
1
Sell
Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.
Earnings
Actuals vs estimates by quarter, or any quarter against the same one a year earlier.
Next report
Nov 4, 2026
Q3 FY26 · EPS est $0.58 · Revenue est $239.2M
Same quarter, year over year
FY26 YTD -24.3%Each cell vs the same quarter a year earlier (the cell below) · Q1–Q2 combined $1.53 vs $2.02 · 0 of 2 quarters up
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
FY total
FY26
—
—
FY25
FY24
FY23
—
—
—
Fiscal year totals
- FY25
- $4.63
- +0.9%
- FY24
- $4.59
- —
Q2 FY26
Reported Aug 5, 2026 · Latest
HoverTap a cell to inspect
Actual
$0.80
Estimate
$0.71
Year over year
-13.0%
Vs prior quarter
+9.6%
Institutional Sentiment
Criteo S.A. · CRTO
From Form 13F filings (managers with $100M+). Filings land up to 45 days after quarter end — read this as positioning context, not live fund flow.