NYSE · DINO
HF Sinclair Corporation
Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
$106.82▲ 0.97% ($1.03)at close
After hours$106.50▼ 0.30%7:57 PM ET
Valuation
Revenue & margin DCF
Verdict: cheap. Price below all scenarios.
The price holds with revenue shrinking 5.8% a year for 10 years. Our scenarios assume 8.0–13.9%.
That's below its past 4-year pace of 9.9%.
Value per share
Base case
$364.84
Price used $106.82 is 71% below this
USD · TTM ending Jun 30, 2026 · Price Sep 25, 8:00 PM UTC
This estimate is at least 3× the price used. Review the growth, margin and investment assumptions behind the gap.
Revenue each value needs
Revenue today $31.2B. The price needs $17.2B by 2036. Base case: $89.9B. At its recent pace: $80.6B. Bear to Bull: $67.7B to $115B.
Revenue today $31.2B. The price needs $17.2B by 2036. Base case: $89.9B. At its recent pace: $80.6B. Bear to Bull: $67.7B to $115B.
Revenue in 2036
today $31.2B
−$72.8Bless than the Base case
Value per share · Base case
$364.84
Price $106.82
71% below this
- 10-yr revenue CAGR
- 11.2%
- Ending operating margin
- 6.0%
- Discount rate
- 8.5%
This estimate is at least 3× the price used. Review the growth, margin and investment assumptions behind the gap.
USD · TTM ending Jun 30, 2026 · Price Sep 25, 8:00 PM UTC
What each scenario assumes. Click a column to start from it.
Price vs Fundamentals
Why The Stock Is Moving
What changed
The stock rose 97.78% over the last year. Revenue grew 16.26% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 0.03% to 8.59%. Free cash flow grew 211.95% over the trailing twelve months.
What the market seems to be pricing
The stock move broadly lines up with stronger business momentum, and the shares are still only around the 47th percentile of their historical P/FCF range.
What would invalidate this read
Operating margin is at 8.59%. Revenue grew 16.26% — this thesis depends on that trajectory holding. If revenue growth, margins, or free cash flow roll over while the stock keeps climbing, more of the move would be coming from multiple expansion than business progress.
Return analysis
Company profile
HF Sinclair Corporation operates as a prominent independent energy enterprise, engaged in the production and commercialization of a diverse array of petroleum products.
Market multiples
Stock splits
Every 1 shares became 2
Every 1 shares became 2
Every 1 shares became 2
Every 1 shares became 2
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Every 1 shares became 2
Profitability & growth
Analyst consensus
9
Buy
6
Hold
1
Sell
Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.
Earnings
Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.
Next report
Oct 28, 2026
Q4 FY26 · EPS est $6.52 · Revenue est $8.51B
View
Institutional Sentiment
HF Sinclair Corporation · DINO
From Form 13F filings (managers with $100M+). Filings land up to 45 days after quarter end — read this as positioning context, not live fund flow.