Reading the tape
NYSE: DINO
HF Sinclair Corporation
Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Market Cap
$12.12B
52w High
$67.26
52w Low
$31.04
P/E
21.22
Volume
2.96M
Outstanding Shares
180.27M
Valuation Data Insufficient
The DCF model's fair value estimate is more than 3× the current stock price. This typically indicates unreliable model inputs — such as irregular cash flows or balance sheet distortions — rather than a genuine opportunity, so the valuation is not shown.
Price vs Fundamentals
Why The Stock Is Moving
Momentum disconnected from fundamentalsModerate confidence
Note: The most recent financial data is over 3 months old. Metrics shown may not reflect the latest reporting period.
1Y Price: 123.51%Revenue (TTM): -5.99%FCF (TTM): -27.41%P/FCF: 80th pct
What changed
The stock rose 123.51% over the last year. Revenue declined 5.99% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 0.91% to 3.42%. Free cash flow declined 27.41% over the trailing twelve months.
What the market seems to be pricing
The stock is rising despite deteriorating fundamentals and now sits at the 80th percentile of its historical P/FCF range. This is a momentum-driven move — the market may be front-running a recovery that has not yet appeared in reported numbers.
What would invalidate this read
Operating margin (currently 3.42%) would need to stabilize or improve to justify the move. Revenue is declining 5.99% — a trend reversal in the next report would be the key signal to watch. This read is wrong if the next period shows operating metrics turning the corner. At that point the price would be anticipating real improvement rather than running ahead of it.
Company profile
HF Sinclair Corporation operates as an independent energy company.
CEOFranklin Myers
SectorEnergy
IndustryOil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Employees5,297
IPO dateMar 17, 1980
Valuation
Forward P/E—
EV/EBITDA5.84
Enterprise value$10.85B
Stock splits
Sep 1, 2011↑ Forward
Every 1 shares became 2
Jun 2, 2006↑ Forward
Every 1 shares became 2
Aug 31, 2004↑ Forward
Every 1 shares became 2
Jul 9, 2001↑ Forward
Every 1 shares became 2
Jul 21, 1988↑ Forward
Every 1 shares became 2
Dec 23, 1985↑ Forward
Every 1 shares became 2
Profitability & growth
Revenue growth-0.55%
Gross margin8.23%▼53.86%vs FY2024
Operating margin3.42%▲281.46%vs FY2024
ROE6.3%▲230.47%vs FY2024
Analyst consensus
RatingBuy
Target price$61.57▼8.39%
10
Buy
5
Hold
1
Sell
Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.
Earnings
Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.
Next report
May 1, 2026
Q2 FY26 · EPS est -$0.06 · Revenue est $6.83B
View
Dividends
$2.00/shareQuarterly4yr growth streakStretchedDINO pays a dividend with a 2.98% dividend yield, 4 consecutive years of growth, growing at 7.39% annually, covered 2.3× by free cash flow.
Dividend Yield
2.98%
Annual Div / Share
$2.00
5yr CAGR
+7.39%
Doubles every ~9.7yr
Payout Ratio
97.58%
Stretched
Dividend Growth Rate
3yr CAGR
+18.56%
5yr CAGR
+7.39%
10yr CAGR
+4.32%
Dividend Safety
6/10Stretched
Dividend History
Annual dividends paid per share
YearAnnual DivYoY
2025$2.00+0.0%
2024$2.00+11.1%
2023$1.80+50.0%
2022$1.20+242.9%
2021$0.35-75.0%
2020$1.40+4.5%
2019$1.34+1.5%
Income Projection
Invest
$
Growth rate:
Reinvest dividends
Today
$30/yr
$2/mo
In 5 yrs
$43/yr+43%
$4/mo
In 10 yrs
$61/yr+104%
$5/mo
| Today | In 5 yrs | In 10 yrs |
|---|---|---|
$30/yr $2/mo | $43/yr+43% $4/mo | $61/yr+104% $5/mo |
Yield-on-cost grows from 2.98% → 6.07% over 10yr
Analysis
Dividend Strengths
Well-covered by free cash flow
The dividend is covered 2.3× by free cash flow, indicating the company generates sufficient cash to sustain and potentially grow the payout without straining its finances.
Strong dividend growth rate
The 5-year CAGR of 7.39% meaningfully outpaces inflation, compounding real income growth for long-term holders.
Risks to Watch
High payout ratio
With 97.58% of earnings paid as dividends, there is limited retained earnings for reinvestment — and a dividend cut becomes more likely if earnings decline.
Congressional Activity
Congress Trades in DINO
STOCK Act disclosures from senators and representatives.
Julia Letlow
LAhouseRepublicanSale2026-02-20$1,001 - $15,000+21d to disclose