NASDAQ · EYE

National Vision Holdings, Inc.

Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail

$16.60▲ 0.91% ($0.15)at close

After hours$16.55▼ 0.30%7:30 PM ET

52-week

$14.75$30.02

Market cap

$1.33B

P/E

26.61

EPS (TTM)

$0.62

Next earnings

Nov 4, 2026

What the market price implies · Reverse DCF

To support a price of $16.60, this model requires revenue to grow by 10.11%/yr over the next 10 years, compounded annually.

Historical revenue grew by -1.13%/yr over the past 4 years. The required annual growth rate is 11.24 percentage points higher.

Selected forecast · Base scenario

2.22%/yr · actual 10-year annualized revenue growth

Year 1 growth: 3.47%

Market-implied · Base operating assumptions + edited margins

10.11%/yr · flat 10-year annualized revenue growth

Reverse DCF solves revenue growth itself using Base operating assumptions and your edited margins. Changing forecast growth alone does not change the implied rate. This is a model-implied requirement, not an analyst forecast.

Valuation

Recommended · Revenue & margin DCF

Price used

$16.60

Estimated value / share

$9.37

Base scenario

This estimate is 43.53% below the price used.

USD · TTM ending 2026-07-04

Year 1 growth 3.47% · Ending margin 4.13% · Discount rate 10.34%

Assumption scenarios, not statistical confidence intervals.

Method, dates & sources

Estimated from future revenue, operating margins, and the investment needed to support them.

Price timestamp: Sep 22, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC
Financial statement period: TTM ending 2026-07-04
Data refreshed: Sep 23, 2026, 3:06 AM UTC · provider

Why this method?

There is not a stable run of positive FCFF to anchor a direct cash-flow CAGR, so the model should start from revenue and margin assumptions instead.

Is FCFF positive and has it been for 3+ consecutive years? Only 2 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Price vs Fundamentals

Why The Stock Is Moving

Likely multiple compressionModerate confidence

1Y Price: -37.59%Revenue (TTM): 7.84%FCF (TTM): -13.51%P/FCF: 28th pct

What changed

The stock fell 37.59% over the last year. Revenue grew 7.84% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 0.42% to 4.13%. Free cash flow declined 13.51% over the trailing twelve months.

What the market seems to be pricing

Visible fundamentals weakened far less than the stock price, and the shares now sit around the 28th percentile of their historical P/FCF range. That looks more like a rerating of the multiple than a collapse in the business.

What would invalidate this read

This read changes if operating margin (currently 4.13%) continues to decline, or if revenue growth turns negative. The bull case requires the business to hold its current trajectory.

Performance

Return analysis

Company profile

National Vision Holdings, Inc. operates as a leading optical retail chain across the United States, conducting business through its various subsidiary companies.

CEOAlexander N. Wilkes

SectorConsumer Cyclical

IndustrySpecialty Retail

Employees13,138

IPO dateOct 27, 2017

https://www.nationalvision.com

Market multiples

Forward P/E—

EV/EBITDA18.09

Enterprise value$2.71B

Stock splits

No stock splits recorded for this ticker.

Profitability & growth

Revenue growth2.55%

Gross margin (FY2025)54.18%▼3.9ppvs FY2024

Operating margin (FY2025)3.08%▲3.7ppvs FY2024

ROE5.75%▲2.2ppvs FY2025

Analyst consensus

RatingBuy

Target price$27.20▲63.86%

Buy

Hold

Sell

Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.

Earnings

Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.

Next report

Nov 4, 2026

Q4 FY26 · EPS est $0.15 · Revenue est $512.73M

View

NASDAQ · EYE

National Vision Holdings, Inc.

Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail

$16.60▲ 0.91% ($0.15)at close

After hours$16.55▼ 0.30%7:30 PM ET

52-week

$14.75$30.02

Market cap

$1.33B

P/E

26.61

EPS (TTM)

$0.62

Next earnings

Nov 4, 2026

What the market price implies · Reverse DCF

To support a price of $16.60, this model requires revenue to grow by 10.11%/yr over the next 10 years, compounded annually.

Historical revenue grew by -1.13%/yr over the past 4 years. The required annual growth rate is 11.24 percentage points higher.

Selected forecast · Base scenario

2.22%/yr · actual 10-year annualized revenue growth

Year 1 growth: 3.47%

Market-implied · Base operating assumptions + edited margins

10.11%/yr · flat 10-year annualized revenue growth

Valuation

Recommended · Revenue & margin DCF

Price used

$16.60

Estimated value / share

$9.37

Base scenario

This estimate is 43.53% below the price used.

USD · TTM ending 2026-07-04

Year 1 growth 3.47% · Ending margin 4.13% · Discount rate 10.34%

Assumption scenarios, not statistical confidence intervals.

Method, dates & sources

Estimated from future revenue, operating margins, and the investment needed to support them.

Price timestamp: Sep 22, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC
Financial statement period: TTM ending 2026-07-04
Data refreshed: Sep 23, 2026, 3:06 AM UTC · provider

Why this method?

There is not a stable run of positive FCFF to anchor a direct cash-flow CAGR, so the model should start from revenue and margin assumptions instead.

Is FCFF positive and has it been for 3+ consecutive years? Only 2 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Price vs Fundamentals

Why The Stock Is Moving

Likely multiple compressionModerate confidence

1Y Price: -37.59%Revenue (TTM): 7.84%FCF (TTM): -13.51%P/FCF: 28th pct

What changed

What the market seems to be pricing

What would invalidate this read

This read changes if operating margin (currently 4.13%) continues to decline, or if revenue growth turns negative. The bull case requires the business to hold its current trajectory.

Performance

Return analysis

Company profile

National Vision Holdings, Inc. operates as a leading optical retail chain across the United States, conducting business through its various subsidiary companies.

CEOAlexander N. Wilkes

SectorConsumer Cyclical

IndustrySpecialty Retail

Employees13,138

IPO dateOct 27, 2017

https://www.nationalvision.com

Market multiples

Forward P/E—

EV/EBITDA18.09

Enterprise value$2.71B

Stock splits

No stock splits recorded for this ticker.

Profitability & growth

Revenue growth2.55%

Gross margin (FY2025)54.18%▼3.9ppvs FY2024

Operating margin (FY2025)3.08%▲3.7ppvs FY2024

ROE5.75%▲2.2ppvs FY2025

Analyst consensus

RatingBuy

Target price$27.20▲63.86%

Buy

Hold

Sell

Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.

Earnings

Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.

Next report

Nov 4, 2026

Q4 FY26 · EPS est $0.15 · Revenue est $512.73M

View