NYSE · FOUR

Shift4 Payments, Inc.

Technology · Software - Infrastructure

$39.28▼ 0.23% ($0.09)today

As of 3:41 PM ET

52-week

$34.56$86.73

Market cap

$3.58B

P/E

What the market price implies · Reverse DCF

To support a price of $39.28, this model requires revenue to grow by 2.11%/yr over the next 10 years, compounded annually.

Historical revenue grew by 32.22%/yr over the past 4 years. The required annual growth rate is 30.12 percentage points lower.

Selected forecast · Base scenario

18.15%/yr · actual 10-year annualized revenue growth

Year 1 growth: 31.64%

Market-implied · Base operating assumptions + edited margins

2.11%/yr · flat 10-year annualized revenue growth

Reverse DCF solves revenue growth itself using Base operating assumptions and your edited margins. Changing forecast growth alone does not change the implied rate. This is a model-implied requirement, not an analyst forecast.

Valuation

Recommended · Revenue & margin DCF

Price used

$39.28

Estimated value / share

$319.40

Base scenario

This estimate is 713.14% above the price used.

USD · TTM ending 2026-06-30

This estimate is at least 3× the price used. Review the growth, margin and investment assumptions behind the gap.

Year 1 growth 31.64% · Ending margin 8.11% · Discount rate 7.59%

Assumption scenarios, not statistical confidence intervals.

Method, dates & sources

Estimated from future revenue, operating margins, and the investment needed to support them.

Price timestamp: Sep 22, 2026, 7:41 PM UTC
Financial statement period: TTM ending 2026-06-30
Data refreshed: Sep 22, 2026, 7:41 PM UTC · provider

Why this method?

FCFF is positive, but it is still too unstable and too short-lived to anchor even a normalized FCFF DCF. Use revenue and margin assumptions instead of compounding current FCFF.

Is FCFF positive and has it been for 3+ consecutive years? 3 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Is FCFF stable (not swinging >30% year to year)? The largest recent FCFF swing is 201.3%.

Do you have 5+ years of positive FCFF history? Only 3 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Price vs Fundamentals

Why The Stock Is Moving

Likely multiple compressionHigh confidence

1Y Price: -54.05%Revenue (TTM): 32.44%FCF (TTM): 4.71%P/FCF: 8th pct

What changed

The stock fell 54.05% over the last year. Revenue grew 32.44% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 7.61% to 8.11%. Free cash flow grew 4.71% over the trailing twelve months.

What the market seems to be pricing

Visible fundamentals weakened far less than the stock price, and the shares now sit around the 8th percentile of their historical P/FCF range. That looks more like a rerating of the multiple than a collapse in the business.

What would invalidate this read

This read changes if operating margin (currently 8.11%) continues to decline, or if revenue growth turns negative. The bull case requires the business to hold its current trajectory.

Performance

Return analysis

Company profile

Shift4 Payments, Inc. delivers comprehensive integrated payment processing and technology solutions across the United States.

CEODavid Taylor Lauber

SectorTechnology

IndustrySoftware - Infrastructure

Employees6,300

IPO dateJun 5, 2020

https://www.shift4.com

Market multiples

Forward P/E—

EV/EBITDA11.37

Enterprise value$9.29B

Stock splits

No stock splits recorded for this ticker.

Profitability & growth

Revenue growth34.03%

Gross margin (FY2025)34.16%▲4.9ppvs FY2024

Operating margin (FY2025)8.4%▲1.0ppvs FY2024

ROE5.61%▼5.0ppvs FY2025

Analyst consensus

RatingBuy

Target price$52.69▲34.14%

Buy

Hold

Sell

Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.

Earnings

Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.

Next report

Nov 5, 2026

Q4 FY26 · EPS est $1.41 · Revenue est $652.89M

View