Reading the tape
NASDAQ: FWRG
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.
Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants
Market Cap
$783.85M
52w High
$19.53
52w Low
$10.09
P/E
44.47
Volume
197.51K
Outstanding Shares
61.63M
Price vs Fundamentals
Why The Stock Is Moving
Likely multiple compressionHigh confidence
1Y Price: -31.6%Revenue (TTM): 20.41%FCF (TTM): 62.44%P/E: 6th pct
What changed
The stock fell 31.6% over the last year. Revenue grew 20.41% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 2.63% to 2.23%. Free cash flow grew 62.44% over the trailing twelve months.
What the market seems to be pricing
Visible fundamentals weakened far less than the stock price, and the shares now sit around the 6th percentile of their historical P/E range. That looks more like a rerating of the multiple than a collapse in the business.
What would invalidate this read
This read changes if operating margin (currently 2.23%) continues to decline, or if revenue growth turns negative. The bull case requires the business to hold its current trajectory.
Company profile
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. operates and franchises restaurants under the First Watch trade name.
CEOChristopher A. Tomasso
SectorConsumer Cyclical
IndustryRestaurants
Employees15,000
IPO dateOct 1, 2021
Valuation
Forward P/E—
EV/EBITDA15.25
Enterprise value$1.66B
Stock splits
No stock splits recorded for this ticker.
Profitability & growth
Revenue growth17.26%
Gross margin15.77%▼83.29%vs FY2024
Operating margin2.23%▼27.87%vs FY2024
ROE3.1%▼2.39%vs FY2024
Analyst consensus
RatingBuy
Target price$19.00▲49.37%
13
Buy
2
Hold
0
Sell
Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.
Earnings
Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.
Next report
May 5, 2026
Q2 FY26 · EPS est -$0.02 · Revenue est $329.35M
View
Congressional Activity
Congress Trades in FWRG
STOCK Act disclosures from senators and representatives.
Josh Gottheimer
NJhouseDemocratSaleJoint2026-03-05$1,001 - $15,000+35d to disclose