NYSE · HCA

HCA Healthcare, Inc.

Healthcare · Medical - Care Facilities

$421.21▼ 0.15% ($0.62)at close

After hours$421.48▲ 0.06%7:44 PM ET

52-week

$353.99$556.52

What the market price implies · Reverse DCF

To support a price of $421.21, this model requires Stage 1 FCFF to grow by -2.88%/yr over the next 5 years, compounded annually.

Historical FCFF grew by 10.38%/yr over the past 10 years. The required annual growth rate is 13.26 percentage points lower.

Selected forecast · Base scenario

10.38%/yr · Stage 1 default · years 1–5

Annual overrides take precedence over the Stage 1 default.

Market-implied · Other assumptions held fixed

-2.88%/yr · Stage 1 · years 1–5

Stage 1 growth is solved while Stage 2 growth, terminal growth, discount inputs, and annual overrides remain fixed. This is a model-implied requirement, not an analyst forecast.

Valuation

Recommended · Cash-flow DCF

Price used

$421.21

Estimated value / share

$929.45

Base scenario

This estimate is 120.66% above the price used.

USD · TTM ending 2026-06-30

FCFF base normalized by replacing latest capex with the company's trailing median capex-to-revenue ratio.

Historical FCFF CAGR and the default growth rates are taken from the raw historical series. The valuation base is normalized for the current-period DCF.

Reported total debt includes capitalised leases (~4% of the total). They are excluded from net debt and from the WACC weights because rent is already charged inside operating income. The Net Debt shown here is therefore lower than the balance-sheet figure elsewhere on this page.

Stage 1 10.38% · Stage 2 5.71% · Discount rate 8.67%

Assumption scenarios, not statistical confidence intervals.

Method, dates & sources

Estimated from future free cash flow, discounted to its value today.

Price timestamp: Sep 10, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC
Financial statement period: TTM ending 2026-06-30
Data refreshed: Sep 11, 2026, 5:15 AM UTC · provider

Why this method?

FCFF is positive, but the year-to-year swings are too large for a direct CAGR. Normalize the cash-flow base first, then run DCF.

Is FCFF positive and has it been for 3+ consecutive years? 16 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Is FCFF stable (not swinging >30% year to year)? The largest recent FCFF swing is 33.6%.

Price vs Fundamentals

Why The Stock Is Moving

Mixed / unclearLow confidence

1Y Price: 6.81%Revenue (TTM): 7.31%FCF (TTM): -17.76%P/FCF: 67th pct

What changed

The stock rose 6.81% over the last year. Revenue grew 7.31% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 15.24% to 15.48%. Free cash flow declined 17.76% over the trailing twelve months.

What the market seems to be pricing

The stock has moved higher with no clear directional signal from operating metrics. The operating data does not yet tell a clear story — the move may reflect sentiment, sector rotation, or macro factors rather than company-specific earnings power.

What would invalidate this read

Operating margin currently stands at 15.48%. A decisive move in revenue — currently up 7.31% — would be the clearest signal to resolve the ambiguity.

Performance

Return analysis

Company profile

HCA Healthcare, Inc., operating through its subsidiaries, delivers a comprehensive array of healthcare services throughout the United States.

CEOSamuel N. Hazen

SectorHealthcare

IndustryMedical - Care Facilities

Employees320,000

IPO dateMar 10, 2011

https://www.hcahealthcare.com

Market multiples

Forward P/E—

EV/EBITDA10.05

Enterprise value$156.87B

Stock splits

No stock splits recorded for this ticker.

Profitability & growth

Revenue growth8.73%

Gross margin28.36%▲0.9ppvs FY2024

Operating margin15.48%▲0.9ppvs FY2024

ROEN/A

Analyst consensus

RatingBuy

Target price$455.19▲8.07%

Buy

Hold

Sell

Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.

Earnings

Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.

Next report

Oct 23, 2026

Q4 FY26 · EPS est $6.71 · Revenue est $19.35B

View

Dividends

$3.06/shareQuarterly7yr growth streakEx-div Sep 16, 2026 · in 5dSafe

HCA pays a dividend with a 0.73% declared yield, 7 consecutive years of growth, growing at 10.35% annually, covered 11.3× by free cash flow.

Declared Yield

0.73%

Annual Div / Share

$3.06

TTM $3.00

5yr CAGR

+10.35%

Doubles every ~7.0yr

Payout Ratio

9.97%

Safe

Dividend Growth Rate

3yr CAGR

+9.04%

5yr CAGR

+10.35%

Dividend Safety

10/10Safe

Dividend History

Annualized dividend cycles per share

YearAnnual DivYoY

2026$3.06+8.5%

2025$2.82+9.3%

2024$2.58+9.3%

2023$2.36+9.3%

2022$2.16+15.5%

2021$1.87+16.9%

2019$1.60+14.3%

Income Projection

Invest

Growth rate:

Reinvest dividends

Today

$7/yr

$1/mo

In 5 yrs

$12/yr+64%

$1/mo

In 10 yrs

$19/yr+168%

$2/mo

Today	In 5 yrs	In 10 yrs
$7/yr $1/mo	$12/yr+64% $1/mo	$19/yr+168% $2/mo

Yield-on-cost grows from 0.73% → 1.95% over 10yr

Analysis

Dividend Strengths

Well-covered by free cash flow

The dividend is covered 11.3× by free cash flow, indicating the company generates sufficient cash to sustain and potentially grow the payout without straining its finances.

Strong dividend growth rate

The 5-year CAGR of 10.35% meaningfully outpaces inflation, compounding real income growth for long-term holders.

Risks to Watch

No strong risk signal stands out from the latest period pair.

NYSE · HCA

HCA Healthcare, Inc.

Healthcare · Medical - Care Facilities

$421.21▼ 0.15% ($0.62)at close

After hours$421.48▲ 0.06%7:44 PM ET

52-week

$353.99$556.52

What the market price implies · Reverse DCF

To support a price of $421.21, this model requires Stage 1 FCFF to grow by -2.88%/yr over the next 5 years, compounded annually.

Historical FCFF grew by 10.38%/yr over the past 10 years. The required annual growth rate is 13.26 percentage points lower.

Selected forecast · Base scenario

10.38%/yr · Stage 1 default · years 1–5

Annual overrides take precedence over the Stage 1 default.

Market-implied · Other assumptions held fixed

-2.88%/yr · Stage 1 · years 1–5

Stage 1 growth is solved while Stage 2 growth, terminal growth, discount inputs, and annual overrides remain fixed. This is a model-implied requirement, not an analyst forecast.

Valuation

Recommended · Cash-flow DCF

Price used

$421.21

Estimated value / share

$929.45

Base scenario

This estimate is 120.66% above the price used.

USD · TTM ending 2026-06-30

FCFF base normalized by replacing latest capex with the company's trailing median capex-to-revenue ratio.

Historical FCFF CAGR and the default growth rates are taken from the raw historical series. The valuation base is normalized for the current-period DCF.

Stage 1 10.38% · Stage 2 5.71% · Discount rate 8.67%

Assumption scenarios, not statistical confidence intervals.

Method, dates & sources

Estimated from future free cash flow, discounted to its value today.

Price timestamp: Sep 10, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC
Financial statement period: TTM ending 2026-06-30
Data refreshed: Sep 11, 2026, 5:15 AM UTC · provider

Why this method?

FCFF is positive, but the year-to-year swings are too large for a direct CAGR. Normalize the cash-flow base first, then run DCF.

Is FCFF positive and has it been for 3+ consecutive years? 16 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Is FCFF stable (not swinging >30% year to year)? The largest recent FCFF swing is 33.6%.

Price vs Fundamentals

Why The Stock Is Moving

Mixed / unclearLow confidence

1Y Price: 6.81%Revenue (TTM): 7.31%FCF (TTM): -17.76%P/FCF: 67th pct

What changed

What the market seems to be pricing

What would invalidate this read

Operating margin currently stands at 15.48%. A decisive move in revenue — currently up 7.31% — would be the clearest signal to resolve the ambiguity.

Performance

Return analysis

Company profile

HCA Healthcare, Inc., operating through its subsidiaries, delivers a comprehensive array of healthcare services throughout the United States.

CEOSamuel N. Hazen

SectorHealthcare

IndustryMedical - Care Facilities

Employees320,000

IPO dateMar 10, 2011

https://www.hcahealthcare.com

Market multiples

Forward P/E—

EV/EBITDA10.05

Enterprise value$156.87B

Stock splits

No stock splits recorded for this ticker.

Profitability & growth

Revenue growth8.73%

Gross margin28.36%▲0.9ppvs FY2024

Operating margin15.48%▲0.9ppvs FY2024

ROEN/A

Analyst consensus

RatingBuy

Target price$455.19▲8.07%

Buy

Hold

Sell

Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.

Earnings

Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.

Next report

Oct 23, 2026

Q4 FY26 · EPS est $6.71 · Revenue est $19.35B

View

Dividends

$3.06/shareQuarterly7yr growth streakEx-div Sep 16, 2026 · in 5dSafe

HCA pays a dividend with a 0.73% declared yield, 7 consecutive years of growth, growing at 10.35% annually, covered 11.3× by free cash flow.

Declared Yield

0.73%

Annual Div / Share

$3.06

TTM $3.00

5yr CAGR

+10.35%

Doubles every ~7.0yr

Payout Ratio

9.97%

Safe

Dividend Growth Rate

3yr CAGR

+9.04%

5yr CAGR

+10.35%

Dividend Safety

10/10Safe

Dividend History

Annualized dividend cycles per share

YearAnnual DivYoY

2026$3.06+8.5%

2025$2.82+9.3%

2024$2.58+9.3%

2023$2.36+9.3%

2022$2.16+15.5%

2021$1.87+16.9%

2019$1.60+14.3%

Income Projection

Invest

Growth rate:

Reinvest dividends

Today

$7/yr

$1/mo

In 5 yrs

$12/yr+64%

$1/mo

In 10 yrs

$19/yr+168%

$2/mo

Today	In 5 yrs	In 10 yrs
$7/yr $1/mo	$12/yr+64% $1/mo	$19/yr+168% $2/mo

Yield-on-cost grows from 0.73% → 1.95% over 10yr

Analysis

Dividend Strengths

Well-covered by free cash flow

The dividend is covered 11.3× by free cash flow, indicating the company generates sufficient cash to sustain and potentially grow the payout without straining its finances.

Strong dividend growth rate

The 5-year CAGR of 10.35% meaningfully outpaces inflation, compounding real income growth for long-term holders.

Risks to Watch

No strong risk signal stands out from the latest period pair.