NYSE · HLT
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.
Consumer Cyclical · Travel Lodging
$319.43▲ 1.26% ($3.99)at close
After hours$319.00▼ 0.13%6:16 PM ET
Valuation
Cash-flow DCF
Verdict: fairly priced. Price above Base.
The price needs 22.5% free cash flow growth a year for 5 years. Our scenarios assume −6.0–24.0%.
That's 2.5× its past 10-year pace.
Value per share
Base case
$165.34
Price used $319.43 is 1.9× this
USD · TTM ending Jun 30, 2026 · Price Oct 2, 8:00 PM UTC
FCFF base normalized by replacing latest capex with the company's trailing median capex-to-revenue ratio.
2 more notes
Historical FCFF CAGR and the default growth rates are taken from the raw historical series. The valuation base is normalized for the current-period DCF.
Reported total debt includes capitalised leases (~5% of the total). They are excluded from net debt and from the WACC weights because rent is already charged inside operating income. The Net Debt shown here is therefore lower than the balance-sheet figure elsewhere on this page.
Free cash flow each value needs
Free cash flow today $2.5B. The price needs $8.7B by 2036. Base case: $4.9B. At its recent pace: $5.9B. Bear to Bull: $2.2B to $13.5B.
Free cash flow today $2.5B. The price needs $8.7B by 2036. Base case: $4.9B. At its recent pace: $5.9B. Bear to Bull: $2.2B to $13.5B.
Free cash flow in 2036
today $2.5B
+$3.8Bmore than the Base case · 1.8×
Value per share · Base case
$165.34
Price $319.43
1.9× this
- Stage 1 growth, yrs 1–5
- 9.0%
- Stage 2 growth, yrs 6–10
- 5.0%
- Discount rate
- 10.0%
FCFF base normalized by replacing latest capex with the company's trailing median capex-to-revenue ratio.
2 more notes
Historical FCFF CAGR and the default growth rates are taken from the raw historical series. The valuation base is normalized for the current-period DCF.
Reported total debt includes capitalised leases (~5% of the total). They are excluded from net debt and from the WACC weights because rent is already charged inside operating income. The Net Debt shown here is therefore lower than the balance-sheet figure elsewhere on this page.
USD · TTM ending Jun 30, 2026 · Price Oct 2, 8:00 PM UTC
What each scenario assumes. Click a column to start from it.
Price vs Fundamentals
Why The Stock Is Moving
Note: The most recent financial data is over 3 months old. Metrics shown may not reflect the latest reporting period.
What changed
The stock rose 23.35% over the last year. Revenue grew 8.74% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 21.13% to 23.35%. Free cash flow declined 8.69% over the trailing twelve months.
What the market seems to be pricing
The stock is trading toward the richer end of its historical P/FCF range (89th percentile) while business metrics are improving. More of the upside is already embedded in the multiple now.
What would invalidate this read
Operating margin is at 23.35% — continued expansion would be needed to justify the premium. Revenue growth of 8.74% is encouraging, but any deceleration puts the stretched multiple at risk. This read changes if revenue, margins, and cash flow continue to improve faster than expected — in that case the richer multiple could still prove conservative.
Return analysis
Company profile
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc., a hospitality company, engages in managing, franchising, and leasing hotels and resorts.
Market multiples
Stock splits
Every 513 shares became 250
Profitability & growth
Analyst consensus
28
Buy
21
Hold
0
Sell
Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.
Earnings
Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.
Next report
Oct 27, 2026
Q3 FY26 · EPS est $2.35 · Revenue est $3.37B
View
Institutional Sentiment
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. · HLT
From Form 13F filings (managers with $100M+). Filings land up to 45 days after quarter end — read this as positioning context, not live fund flow.