Reading the tape
NASDAQ: HPK
HighPeak Energy, Inc.
Energy · Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Market Cap
$846.64M
52w High
$12.00
52w Low
$3.85
P/E
44.26
Volume
193.64K
Outstanding Shares
126.36M
Price vs Fundamentals
Why The Stock Is Moving
Likely fundamental deteriorationModerate confidence
Note: The most recent financial data is over 3 months old. Metrics shown may not reflect the latest reporting period.
1Y Price: -14.81%Revenue (TTM): -24.02%FCF (TTM): -28.73%P/E: 89th pct
What changed
The stock fell 14.81% over the last year. Revenue declined 24.02% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 31.55% to 18.46%. Free cash flow declined 28.73% over the trailing twelve months.
What the market seems to be pricing
The market is reacting to weaker business momentum more than just compressing the valuation multiple. Even if the shares already screen cheap on P/E, investors are still discounting lower future earnings power.
What would invalidate this read
Operating margin stands at 18.46%. Revenue declined 24.02% — this read reverses if that trend stabilizes. Free cash flow fell 28.73% — a return toward positive territory would undermine the deterioration thesis. If margins and cash flow stabilize while the stock stays depressed, the gap shifts from fundamental damage toward pure multiple compression.
Company profile
HighPeak Energy, Inc., an independent oil and natural gas company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids reserves in the Midland Basin in West Texas.
CEOMichael L. Hollis
SectorEnergy
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Employees47
IPO dateMay 29, 2018
Valuation
Forward P/E—
EV/EBITDA2.84
Enterprise value$1.63B
Stock splits
No stock splits recorded for this ticker.
Profitability & growth
Revenue growth-29.37%
Gross margin22.54%▼41.24%vs FY2024
Operating margin18.46%▼44.94%vs FY2024
ROE1.19%▼79.95%vs FY2024
Analyst consensus
RatingBuy
Target price$12.00▲79.10%
3
Buy
1
Hold
0
Sell
Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.
Earnings
Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.
Next report
May 6, 2026
Q2 FY26 · EPS est -$0.02 · Revenue est $210.14M
View
Dividends
$0.16/shareQuarterly3yr growth streakAt RiskHPK pays a dividend with a 2.39% dividend yield, 3 consecutive years of growth, growing at 16.96% annually, covered -0.5× by free cash flow.
Dividend Yield
2.39%
Annual Div / Share
$0.16
3yr CAGR
+16.96%
Doubles every ~4.4yr
Payout Ratio
115.71%
At Risk
Dividend Growth Rate
3yr CAGR
+16.96%
Dividend Safety
1/10At Risk
Dividend History
Annualized dividend cycles per share
YearAnnual DivYoY
2025$0.16+0.0%
2024$0.16+60.0%
2023$0.10+0.0%
2022$0.10—
Income Projection
Invest
$
Growth rate:
Reinvest dividends
Today
$24/yr
$2/mo
In 5 yrs
$42/yr+76%
$4/mo
In 10 yrs
$74/yr+211%
$6/mo
| Today | In 5 yrs | In 10 yrs |
|---|---|---|
$24/yr $2/mo | $42/yr+76% $4/mo | $74/yr+211% $6/mo |
Long-range projections use a capped 12% annual growth assumption.
Yield-on-cost grows from 2.39% → 7.42% over 10yr
Analysis
Dividend Strengths
No strong strength signal stands out from the latest period pair.
Risks to Watch
High payout ratio
With 115.71% of earnings paid as dividends, there is limited retained earnings for reinvestment — and a dividend cut becomes more likely if earnings decline.
Dividend exceeds free cash flow
Free cash flow covers only -0.46× the dividend. The company is paying out more than it generates in cash, which is unsustainable without borrowing or asset sales.