NYSE · HSY

The Hershey Company

Consumer Defensive · Food Confectioners

$174.34▲ 1.25% ($2.15)at close

After hours$175.35▲ 0.58%7:40 PM ET

52-week

$161.43$239.48

What the market price implies · Reverse DCF

To support a price of $174.34, this model requires revenue to grow by 7.06%/yr over the next 10 years, compounded annually.

Historical revenue grew by 6.85%/yr over the past 4 years. The required annual growth rate is 0.21 percentage points higher.

Selected forecast · Base scenario

3.8%/yr · actual 10-year annualized revenue growth

Year 1 growth: 5.94%

Market-implied · Base operating assumptions + edited margins

7.06%/yr · flat 10-year annualized revenue growth

Reverse DCF solves revenue growth itself using Base operating assumptions and your edited margins. Changing forecast growth alone does not change the implied rate. This is a model-implied requirement, not an analyst forecast.

Valuation

Recommended · Revenue & margin DCF

Price used

$174.34

Estimated value / share

$131.50

Base scenario

This estimate is 24.57% below the price used.

USD · TTM ending 2026-06-28

Year 1 growth 5.94% · Ending margin 17.58% · Discount rate 7.1%

Assumption scenarios, not statistical confidence intervals.

Method, dates & sources

Estimated from future revenue, operating margins, and the investment needed to support them.

Price timestamp: Sep 10, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC
Financial statement period: TTM ending 2026-06-28
Data refreshed: Sep 11, 2026, 12:28 AM UTC · provider

Why this method?

FCFF is positive, but the series is too unstable to anchor a direct cash-flow CAGR and the business still fails the steady-state comparability checks. Use a revenue-and-margin transition model instead of normalizing and compounding current FCFF.

Is FCFF positive and has it been for 3+ consecutive years? 29 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Is FCFF stable (not swinging >30% year to year)? The largest recent FCFF swing is 59.7%.

Do you have 5+ years of positive FCFF history? 29 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Is the business model structurally similar to what it should be in 10 years? Operating margin moved 13.8 percentage points across the last five years, above the 10.0-point stability threshold, so steady-state FCFF is not a reliable anchor yet.

Price vs Fundamentals

Why The Stock Is Moving

Mixed / unclearLow confidence

1Y Price: -6.07%Revenue (TTM): 7.69%FCF (TTM): 61.15%P/FCF: 0th pct

What changed

The stock fell 6.07% over the last year. Revenue grew 7.69% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 18.72% to 17.58%. Free cash flow grew 61.15% over the trailing twelve months.

What the market seems to be pricing

The stock has moved lower against modestly improving underlying metrics. The operating data does not yet tell a clear story — the move may reflect sentiment, sector rotation, or macro factors rather than company-specific earnings power.

What would invalidate this read

Operating margin currently stands at 17.58%. A decisive move in revenue — currently up 7.69% — would be the clearest signal to resolve the ambiguity.

Performance

Return analysis

Company profile

The Hershey Company, operating with its various subsidiaries, serves as a key manufacturer and distributor of both sweet confections and general household pantry items.

CEOKirk C. Tanner

SectorConsumer Defensive

IndustryFood Confectioners

Employees18,573

IPO dateMar 17, 1980

https://www.thehersheycompany.com

Market multiples

Forward P/E—

EV/EBITDA21.24

Enterprise value$41.47B

Stock splits

Jun 16, 2004↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

Sep 16, 1996↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

Sep 16, 1986↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 3

+200%

Sep 16, 1983↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

Profitability & growth

Revenue growth6.6%

Gross margin38.11%▼14.1ppvs FY2024

Operating margin17.58%▼13.8ppvs FY2024

ROE32.81%▲13.9ppvs FY2025

Analyst consensus

RatingHold

Target price$204.62▲17.37%

Buy

Hold

Sell

Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.

Earnings

Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.

Next report

Oct 29, 2026

Q4 FY26 · EPS est $2.11 · Revenue est $3.26B

View

Dividends

$5.73/shareQuarterlyDividend Aristocrat · 35yrAdequate

HSY pays a dividend with a 3.28% dividend yield, 35 consecutive years of growth, growing at 11.56% annually, covered 1.6× by free cash flow.

Dividend Yield

3.28%

Annual Div / Share

$5.73

5yr CAGR

+11.56%

Doubles every ~6.3yr

Payout Ratio

75%

Adequate

Dividend Growth Rate

3yr CAGR

+10.02%

5yr CAGR

+11.56%

10yr CAGR

+9.24%

Dividend Safety

6/10Adequate

Dividend History

Annualized dividend cycles per share

YearAnnual DivYoY

2026$5.73+4.5%

2025$5.48+3.4%

2024$5.30+23.3%

2023$4.30+15.0%

2022$3.74+12.9%

2021$3.31+6.1%

2020$3.12+6.3%

Income Projection

Invest

Growth rate:

Reinvest dividends

Today

$33/yr

$3/mo

In 5 yrs

$57/yr+73%

$5/mo

In 10 yrs

$98/yr+199%

$8/mo

Today	In 5 yrs	In 10 yrs
$33/yr $3/mo	$57/yr+73% $5/mo	$98/yr+199% $8/mo

Yield-on-cost grows from 3.28% → 9.81% over 10yr

Analysis

Dividend Strengths

Dividend Aristocrat

HSY has raised its dividend for 35 consecutive years — qualifying as a Dividend Aristocrat, demonstrating long-term commitment to shareholder income.

Well-covered by free cash flow

The dividend is covered 1.6× by free cash flow, indicating the company generates sufficient cash to sustain and potentially grow the payout without straining its finances.

Strong dividend growth rate

The 5-year CAGR of 11.56% meaningfully outpaces inflation, compounding real income growth for long-term holders.

Risks to Watch

No strong risk signal stands out from the latest period pair.

NYSE · HSY

The Hershey Company

Consumer Defensive · Food Confectioners

$174.34▲ 1.25% ($2.15)at close

After hours$175.35▲ 0.58%7:40 PM ET

52-week

$161.43$239.48

What the market price implies · Reverse DCF

To support a price of $174.34, this model requires revenue to grow by 7.06%/yr over the next 10 years, compounded annually.

Historical revenue grew by 6.85%/yr over the past 4 years. The required annual growth rate is 0.21 percentage points higher.

Selected forecast · Base scenario

3.8%/yr · actual 10-year annualized revenue growth

Year 1 growth: 5.94%

Market-implied · Base operating assumptions + edited margins

7.06%/yr · flat 10-year annualized revenue growth

Valuation

Recommended · Revenue & margin DCF

Price used

$174.34

Estimated value / share

$131.50

Base scenario

This estimate is 24.57% below the price used.

USD · TTM ending 2026-06-28

Year 1 growth 5.94% · Ending margin 17.58% · Discount rate 7.1%

Assumption scenarios, not statistical confidence intervals.

Method, dates & sources

Estimated from future revenue, operating margins, and the investment needed to support them.

Price timestamp: Sep 10, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC
Financial statement period: TTM ending 2026-06-28
Data refreshed: Sep 11, 2026, 12:28 AM UTC · provider

Why this method?

Is FCFF positive and has it been for 3+ consecutive years? 29 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Is FCFF stable (not swinging >30% year to year)? The largest recent FCFF swing is 59.7%.

Do you have 5+ years of positive FCFF history? 29 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Price vs Fundamentals

Why The Stock Is Moving

Mixed / unclearLow confidence

1Y Price: -6.07%Revenue (TTM): 7.69%FCF (TTM): 61.15%P/FCF: 0th pct

What changed

The stock fell 6.07% over the last year. Revenue grew 7.69% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 18.72% to 17.58%. Free cash flow grew 61.15% over the trailing twelve months.

What the market seems to be pricing

What would invalidate this read

Operating margin currently stands at 17.58%. A decisive move in revenue — currently up 7.69% — would be the clearest signal to resolve the ambiguity.

Performance

Return analysis

Company profile

The Hershey Company, operating with its various subsidiaries, serves as a key manufacturer and distributor of both sweet confections and general household pantry items.

CEOKirk C. Tanner

SectorConsumer Defensive

IndustryFood Confectioners

Employees18,573

IPO dateMar 17, 1980

https://www.thehersheycompany.com

Market multiples

Forward P/E—

EV/EBITDA21.24

Enterprise value$41.47B

Stock splits

Jun 16, 2004↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

Sep 16, 1996↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

Sep 16, 1986↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 3

+200%

Sep 16, 1983↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

Profitability & growth

Revenue growth6.6%

Gross margin38.11%▼14.1ppvs FY2024

Operating margin17.58%▼13.8ppvs FY2024

ROE32.81%▲13.9ppvs FY2025

Analyst consensus

RatingHold

Target price$204.62▲17.37%

Buy

Hold

Sell

Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.

Earnings

Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.

Next report

Oct 29, 2026

Q4 FY26 · EPS est $2.11 · Revenue est $3.26B

View

Dividends

$5.73/shareQuarterlyDividend Aristocrat · 35yrAdequate

HSY pays a dividend with a 3.28% dividend yield, 35 consecutive years of growth, growing at 11.56% annually, covered 1.6× by free cash flow.

Dividend Yield

3.28%

Annual Div / Share

$5.73

5yr CAGR

+11.56%

Doubles every ~6.3yr

Payout Ratio

75%

Adequate

Dividend Growth Rate

3yr CAGR

+10.02%

5yr CAGR

+11.56%

10yr CAGR

+9.24%

Dividend Safety

6/10Adequate

Dividend History

Annualized dividend cycles per share

YearAnnual DivYoY

2026$5.73+4.5%

2025$5.48+3.4%

2024$5.30+23.3%

2023$4.30+15.0%

2022$3.74+12.9%

2021$3.31+6.1%

2020$3.12+6.3%

Income Projection

Invest

Growth rate:

Reinvest dividends

Today

$33/yr

$3/mo

In 5 yrs

$57/yr+73%

$5/mo

In 10 yrs

$98/yr+199%

$8/mo

Today	In 5 yrs	In 10 yrs
$33/yr $3/mo	$57/yr+73% $5/mo	$98/yr+199% $8/mo

Yield-on-cost grows from 3.28% → 9.81% over 10yr

Analysis

Dividend Strengths

Dividend Aristocrat

HSY has raised its dividend for 35 consecutive years — qualifying as a Dividend Aristocrat, demonstrating long-term commitment to shareholder income.

Well-covered by free cash flow

The dividend is covered 1.6× by free cash flow, indicating the company generates sufficient cash to sustain and potentially grow the payout without straining its finances.

Strong dividend growth rate

The 5-year CAGR of 11.56% meaningfully outpaces inflation, compounding real income growth for long-term holders.

Risks to Watch

No strong risk signal stands out from the latest period pair.