NASDAQ · HUBG
Hub Group, Inc.
Industrials · Integrated Freight & Logistics
$30.34▲ 1.03% ($0.31)at close
As of 4:00 PM ET
Market cap
$1.84B
P/E
Valuation
Cash-flow DCF
Verdict: fairly priced. Price above Base.
The price needs 31.1% free cash flow growth a year for 5 years. Our scenarios assume −6.2–23.8%.
That's 3.5× its past 9-year pace.
Value per share
Base case
$11.17
Price used $30.34 is 2.7× this
USD · TTM ending Sep 30, 2025 · Price Sep 25, 8:00 PM UTC
FCFF base normalized by replacing latest capex with the company's trailing median capex-to-revenue ratio.
3 more notes
CapEx normalization ceiling applied: historical capex ratio was set at smaller revenue scale. Capped at 2× TTM capex.
Historical FCFF CAGR and the default growth rates are taken from the raw historical series. The valuation base is normalized for the current-period DCF.
Reported total debt includes capitalised leases (~49% of the total). They are excluded from net debt and from the WACC weights because rent is already charged inside operating income. The Net Debt shown here is therefore lower than the balance-sheet figure elsewhere on this page.
Free cash flow each value needs
Free cash flow today $48.5M. The price needs $237M by 2035. Base case: $93.6M. At its recent pace: $113M. Bear to Bull: $41.8M to $261M.
Free cash flow today $48.5M. The price needs $237M by 2035. Base case: $93.6M. At its recent pace: $113M. Bear to Bull: $41.8M to $261M.
Free cash flow in 2035
today $48.5M
+$144Mmore than the Base case · 2.5×
Value per share · Base case
$11.17
Price $30.34
2.7× this
- Stage 1 growth, yrs 1–5
- 8.8%
- Stage 2 growth, yrs 6–10
- 4.8%
- Discount rate
- 10.8%
FCFF base normalized by replacing latest capex with the company's trailing median capex-to-revenue ratio.
3 more notes
CapEx normalization ceiling applied: historical capex ratio was set at smaller revenue scale. Capped at 2× TTM capex.
Historical FCFF CAGR and the default growth rates are taken from the raw historical series. The valuation base is normalized for the current-period DCF.
Reported total debt includes capitalised leases (~49% of the total). They are excluded from net debt and from the WACC weights because rent is already charged inside operating income. The Net Debt shown here is therefore lower than the balance-sheet figure elsewhere on this page.
USD · TTM ending Sep 30, 2025 · Price Sep 25, 8:00 PM UTC
What each scenario assumes. Click a column to start from it.
Price vs Fundamentals
Why The Stock Is Moving
Note: The most recent financial data is over 3 months old. Metrics shown may not reflect the latest reporting period.
What changed
The stock fell 12.39% over the last year. Revenue declined 5.79% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 3.49% to 3.83%. Free cash flow declined 47.41% over the trailing twelve months.
What the market seems to be pricing
The market is reacting to weaker business momentum more than just compressing the valuation multiple. Even if the shares already screen cheap on P/FCF, investors are still discounting lower future earnings power.
What would invalidate this read
Operating margin stands at 3.83%. Revenue declined 5.79% — this read reverses if that trend stabilizes. Free cash flow fell 47.41% — a return toward positive territory would undermine the deterioration thesis. If margins and cash flow stabilize while the stock stays depressed, the gap shifts from fundamental damage toward pure multiple compression.
Return analysis
Company profile
Hub Group, Inc., a supply chain solutions provider, offers transportation and logistics management services in North America.
Market multiples
Stock splits
Every 1 shares became 2
Every 1 shares became 2
Every 1 shares became 2
Profitability & growth
Analyst consensus
14
Buy
16
Hold
1
Sell
Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.
Earnings
Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.
Next report
Oct 1, 2026
Q2 FY26 · EPS est $0.21 · Revenue est $919.95M
View
Institutional Sentiment
Hub Group, Inc. · HUBG
From Form 13F filings (managers with $100M+). Filings land up to 45 days after quarter end — read this as positioning context, not live fund flow.