NYSE · JCI

Johnson Controls International plc

Basic Materials · Construction Materials

$142.81▼ 1.45% ($2.11)at close

After hours$143.08▲ 0.19%6:55 PM ET

52-week

$104.49$157.06

Market cap

$86.51B

P/E

24.46

Volume

2.43M

Shares outstanding

605.74M

What the market price implies · Reverse DCF

To support a price of $142.81, this model requires Stage 1 FCFF to grow by 28.95%/yr over the next 5 years, compounded annually.

Historical FCFF grew by 4.07%/yr over the past 10 years. The required annual growth rate is 24.88 percentage points higher.

Selected forecast · Base scenario

4.07%/yr · Stage 1 default · years 1–5

Annual overrides take precedence over the Stage 1 default.

Market-implied · Other assumptions held fixed

28.95%/yr · Stage 1 · years 1–5

Stage 1 growth is solved while Stage 2 growth, terminal growth, discount inputs, and annual overrides remain fixed. This is a model-implied requirement, not an analyst forecast.

Valuation

Recommended · Cash-flow DCF

Price used

$142.81

Estimated value / share

$45.53

Base scenario

This estimate is 68.12% below the price used.

USD · TTM ending 2026-06-30

FCFF base normalized by replacing latest capex with the company's trailing median capex-to-revenue ratio.

Historical FCFF CAGR and the default growth rates are taken from the raw historical series. The valuation base is normalized for the current-period DCF.

Stage 1 4.07% · Stage 2 3.5% · Discount rate 11.06%

Assumption scenarios, not statistical confidence intervals.

Method, dates & sources

Estimated from future free cash flow, discounted to its value today.

Price timestamp: Sep 10, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC
Financial statement period: TTM ending 2026-06-30
Data refreshed: Sep 11, 2026, 4:28 AM UTC · provider

Why this method?

FCFF is positive, but the year-to-year swings are too large for a direct CAGR. Normalize the cash-flow base first, then run DCF.

Is FCFF positive and has it been for 3+ consecutive years? 6 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Is FCFF stable (not swinging >30% year to year)? The largest recent FCFF swing is 65.7%.

Price vs Fundamentals

Why The Stock Is Moving

Optimism is getting priced inModerate confidence

1Y Price: 32.48%Revenue (TTM): 6.81%FCF (TTM): -30.97%P/FCF: 78th pct

What changed

The stock rose 32.48% over the last year. Revenue grew 6.81% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 12.36% to 13.9%. Free cash flow declined 30.97% over the trailing twelve months.

What the market seems to be pricing

The stock is trading toward the richer end of its historical P/FCF range (78th percentile) while business metrics are improving. More of the upside is already embedded in the multiple now.

What would invalidate this read

Operating margin is at 13.9% — continued expansion would be needed to justify the premium. Revenue growth of 6.81% is encouraging, but any deceleration puts the stretched multiple at risk. This read changes if revenue, margins, and cash flow continue to improve faster than expected — in that case the richer multiple could still prove conservative.

Performance

Return analysis

Company profile

Johnson Controls International plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in engineering, manufacturing, commissioning, and retrofitting building products and systems in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia-Pacific.

CEOJoakim Weidemanis

SectorBasic Materials

IndustryConstruction Materials

Employees87,000

IPO dateSep 28, 1987

https://www.johnsoncontrols.com

Market multiples

Forward P/E—

EV/EBITDA26.16

Enterprise value$82.48B

Stock splits

Sep 6, 2016↓ Reverse

Every 200 shares became 191

-5%

Oct 1, 2012↑ Forward

Every 4971 shares became 10000

+101%

Oct 3, 2007↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 3

+200%

Jul 2, 2007↓ Reverse

Every 4 shares became 1

-75%

Jan 5, 2004↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

Oct 22, 1999↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

Oct 23, 1997↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

Apr 1, 1997↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

Profitability & growth

Revenue growth9.29%

Gross margin36.65%▲1.2ppvs FY2024

Operating margin13.9%▲1.4ppvs FY2024

ROE24.42%▲1.7ppvs FY2025

Analyst consensus

RatingBuy

Target price$170.57▲19.44%

Buy

Hold

Sell

Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.

Earnings

Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.

Next report

Nov 4, 2026

Q4 FY26 · EPS est $1.58 · Revenue est $7.02B

View

Dividends

$1.60/shareQuarterly8yr growth streakEx-div Sep 21, 2026 · in 10dStretched

JCI pays a dividend with a 1.12% declared yield, 8 consecutive years of growth, growing at 8.17% annually, covered 1.0× by free cash flow.

Declared Yield

1.12%

Annual Div / Share

$1.60

5yr CAGR

+8.17%

Doubles every ~8.8yr

Payout Ratio

27.3%

Stretched

Dividend Growth Rate

3yr CAGR

+3.23%

5yr CAGR

+8.17%

10yr CAGR

-2.22%

Dividend Safety

6/10Stretched

Dividend History

Annual dividends paid per share

YearAnnual DivYoY

2025$1.54+4.1%

2024$1.48+0.7%

2023$1.47+5.0%

2022$1.40+21.7%

2021$1.15+10.6%

2020$1.04+0.0%

2019$1.04+0.0%

Income Projection

Invest

Growth rate:

Reinvest dividends

Today

$11/yr

$1/mo

In 5 yrs

$17/yr+48%

$1/mo

In 10 yrs

$25/yr+119%

$2/mo

Today	In 5 yrs	In 10 yrs
$11/yr $1/mo	$17/yr+48% $1/mo	$25/yr+119% $2/mo

Yield-on-cost grows from 1.12% → 2.46% over 10yr

Analysis

Dividend Strengths

Strong dividend growth rate

The 5-year CAGR of 8.17% meaningfully outpaces inflation, compounding real income growth for long-term holders.

Risks to Watch

Dividend exceeds free cash flow

Free cash flow covers only 0.99× the dividend. The company is paying out more than it generates in cash, which is unsustainable without borrowing or asset sales.

NYSE · JCI

Johnson Controls International plc

Basic Materials · Construction Materials

$142.81▼ 1.45% ($2.11)at close

After hours$143.08▲ 0.19%6:55 PM ET

52-week

$104.49$157.06

Market cap

$86.51B

P/E

24.46

Volume

2.43M

Shares outstanding

605.74M

What the market price implies · Reverse DCF

To support a price of $142.81, this model requires Stage 1 FCFF to grow by 28.95%/yr over the next 5 years, compounded annually.

Historical FCFF grew by 4.07%/yr over the past 10 years. The required annual growth rate is 24.88 percentage points higher.

Selected forecast · Base scenario

4.07%/yr · Stage 1 default · years 1–5

Annual overrides take precedence over the Stage 1 default.

Market-implied · Other assumptions held fixed

28.95%/yr · Stage 1 · years 1–5

Stage 1 growth is solved while Stage 2 growth, terminal growth, discount inputs, and annual overrides remain fixed. This is a model-implied requirement, not an analyst forecast.

Valuation

Recommended · Cash-flow DCF

Price used

$142.81

Estimated value / share

$45.53

Base scenario

This estimate is 68.12% below the price used.

USD · TTM ending 2026-06-30

FCFF base normalized by replacing latest capex with the company's trailing median capex-to-revenue ratio.

Historical FCFF CAGR and the default growth rates are taken from the raw historical series. The valuation base is normalized for the current-period DCF.

Stage 1 4.07% · Stage 2 3.5% · Discount rate 11.06%

Assumption scenarios, not statistical confidence intervals.

Method, dates & sources

Estimated from future free cash flow, discounted to its value today.

Price timestamp: Sep 10, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC
Financial statement period: TTM ending 2026-06-30
Data refreshed: Sep 11, 2026, 4:28 AM UTC · provider

Why this method?

FCFF is positive, but the year-to-year swings are too large for a direct CAGR. Normalize the cash-flow base first, then run DCF.

Is FCFF positive and has it been for 3+ consecutive years? 6 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Is FCFF stable (not swinging >30% year to year)? The largest recent FCFF swing is 65.7%.

Price vs Fundamentals

Why The Stock Is Moving

Optimism is getting priced inModerate confidence

1Y Price: 32.48%Revenue (TTM): 6.81%FCF (TTM): -30.97%P/FCF: 78th pct

What changed

What the market seems to be pricing

The stock is trading toward the richer end of its historical P/FCF range (78th percentile) while business metrics are improving. More of the upside is already embedded in the multiple now.

What would invalidate this read

Performance

Return analysis

Company profile

CEOJoakim Weidemanis

SectorBasic Materials

IndustryConstruction Materials

Employees87,000

IPO dateSep 28, 1987

https://www.johnsoncontrols.com

Market multiples

Forward P/E—

EV/EBITDA26.16

Enterprise value$82.48B

Stock splits

Sep 6, 2016↓ Reverse

Every 200 shares became 191

-5%

Oct 1, 2012↑ Forward

Every 4971 shares became 10000

+101%

Oct 3, 2007↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 3

+200%

Jul 2, 2007↓ Reverse

Every 4 shares became 1

-75%

Jan 5, 2004↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

Oct 22, 1999↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

Oct 23, 1997↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

Apr 1, 1997↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

Profitability & growth

Revenue growth9.29%

Gross margin36.65%▲1.2ppvs FY2024

Operating margin13.9%▲1.4ppvs FY2024

ROE24.42%▲1.7ppvs FY2025

Analyst consensus

RatingBuy

Target price$170.57▲19.44%

Buy

Hold

Sell

Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.

Earnings

Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.

Next report

Nov 4, 2026

Q4 FY26 · EPS est $1.58 · Revenue est $7.02B

View

Dividends

$1.60/shareQuarterly8yr growth streakEx-div Sep 21, 2026 · in 10dStretched

JCI pays a dividend with a 1.12% declared yield, 8 consecutive years of growth, growing at 8.17% annually, covered 1.0× by free cash flow.

Declared Yield

1.12%

Annual Div / Share

$1.60

5yr CAGR

+8.17%

Doubles every ~8.8yr

Payout Ratio

27.3%

Stretched

Dividend Growth Rate

3yr CAGR

+3.23%

5yr CAGR

+8.17%

10yr CAGR

-2.22%

Dividend Safety

6/10Stretched

Dividend History

Annual dividends paid per share

YearAnnual DivYoY

2025$1.54+4.1%

2024$1.48+0.7%

2023$1.47+5.0%

2022$1.40+21.7%

2021$1.15+10.6%

2020$1.04+0.0%

2019$1.04+0.0%

Income Projection

Invest

Growth rate:

Reinvest dividends

Today

$11/yr

$1/mo

In 5 yrs

$17/yr+48%

$1/mo

In 10 yrs

$25/yr+119%

$2/mo

Today	In 5 yrs	In 10 yrs
$11/yr $1/mo	$17/yr+48% $1/mo	$25/yr+119% $2/mo

Yield-on-cost grows from 1.12% → 2.46% over 10yr

Analysis

Dividend Strengths

Strong dividend growth rate

The 5-year CAGR of 8.17% meaningfully outpaces inflation, compounding real income growth for long-term holders.

Risks to Watch

Dividend exceeds free cash flow

Free cash flow covers only 0.99× the dividend. The company is paying out more than it generates in cash, which is unsustainable without borrowing or asset sales.