NASDAQ · LITE

Lumentum Holdings Inc.

Technology · Communication Equipment

$930.91▲ 4.17% ($37.30)at close

After hours$929.53▼ 0.15%7:59 PM ET

52-week

$144.52$1,085.68

No multiple

What the market price implies · Reverse DCF

To support a price of $930.91, this model requires revenue to grow by 50.16%/yr over the next 10 years, compounded annually.

Historical revenue grew by 15.18%/yr over the past 4 years. The required annual growth rate is 34.98 percentage points higher.

Selected forecast · Base scenario

19.61%/yr · actual 10-year annualized revenue growth

Year 1 growth: 40%

Market-implied · Base operating assumptions + edited margins

50.16%/yr · flat 10-year annualized revenue growth

Reverse DCF solves revenue growth itself using Base operating assumptions and your edited margins. Changing forecast growth alone does not change the implied rate. This is a model-implied requirement, not an analyst forecast.

Valuation

Recommended · Revenue & margin DCF

Price used

$930.91

Estimated value / share

$153.54

Base scenario

This estimate is 83.51% below the price used.

USD · TTM ending 2026-06-27

Latest quarterly growth differs materially from the latest annual pace. It remains an observed growth input; review whether acceleration or a change in the business explains it.

Year 1 growth 40% · Ending margin 17.41% · Discount rate 13.18%

Assumption scenarios, not statistical confidence intervals.

Method, dates & sources

Estimated from future revenue, operating margins, and the investment needed to support them.

Price timestamp: Sep 18, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC
Financial statement period: TTM ending 2026-06-27
Data refreshed: Sep 20, 2026, 5:26 AM UTC · provider

Why this method?

There is not a stable run of positive FCFF to anchor a direct cash-flow CAGR, so the model should start from revenue and margin assumptions instead.

Is FCFF positive and has it been for 3+ consecutive years? Latest FCFF is not positive.

Price vs Fundamentals

Why The Stock Is Moving

Fundamentals are supporting the moveHigh confidence

1Y Price: 442.8%Revenue (TTM): 83.22%FCF (TTM): 625.79%P/E: 0th pct

What changed

The stock rose 442.8% over the last year. Revenue grew 83.22% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from -12.27% to 17.41%. Free cash flow grew 625.79% over the trailing twelve months.

What the market seems to be pricing

The stock move broadly lines up with stronger business momentum, and the shares are still only around the 0th percentile of their historical P/E range.

What would invalidate this read

Operating margin is at 17.41%. Revenue grew 83.22% — this thesis depends on that trajectory holding. If revenue growth, margins, or free cash flow roll over while the stock keeps climbing, more of the move would be coming from multiple expansion than business progress.

Performance

Return analysis

Company profile

Lumentum Holdings Inc., established in 2015 and headquartered in San Jose, California, is a global leader in optical and photonic product manufacturing.

CEOMichael E. Hurlston

SectorTechnology

IndustryCommunication Equipment

Employees13,757

IPO dateJul 23, 2015

https://www.lumentum.com

Market multiples

Forward P/E—

EV/EBITDA-8.63

Enterprise value$60.57B

Stock splits

No stock splits recorded for this ticker.

Profitability & growth

Revenue growth109.34%

Gross margin (FY2026)41.67%▲13.7ppvs FY2025

Operating margin (FY2026)17.41%▲29.1ppvs FY2025

ROE-240.03%▼242.5ppYoY

Analyst consensus

RatingBuy

Target price$1,092.17▲17.32%

Buy

Hold

Sell

Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.

Earnings

Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.

Next report

Nov 3, 2026

Q4 FY26 · EPS est $4.22 · Revenue est $1.25B

View