NASDAQ · LKQ
LKQ Corporation
Consumer Cyclical · Auto - Parts
$23.00▼ 1.84% ($0.43)at close
After hours$22.91▼ 0.39%7:45 PM ET
Market cap
Valuation
Cash-flow DCF
Verdict: cheap. Price below all scenarios.
The price holds with free cash flow shrinking 11.1% a year for 5 years. Our scenarios assume −4.3–25.0%.
That's below its past 10-year pace of 10.7%.
Value per share
Base case
$98.89
Price used $23.00 is 77% below this
USD · TTM ending Jun 30, 2026 · Price Sep 24, 8:00 PM UTC
This estimate is at least 3× the price used. Review the assumptions behind the gap.
Free cash flow each value needs
Free cash flow today $705M. The price needs $522M by 2036. Base case: $1.6B. At its recent pace: $2B. Bear to Bull: $673M to $4.1B.
Free cash flow today $705M. The price needs $522M by 2036. Base case: $1.6B. At its recent pace: $2B. Bear to Bull: $673M to $4.1B.
Free cash flow in 2036
today $705M
−$1Bless than the Base case
Value per share · Base case
$98.89
Price $23.00
77% below this
- Stage 1 growth, yrs 1–5
- 10.7%
- Stage 2 growth, yrs 6–10
- 5.9%
- Discount rate
- 6.8%
This estimate is at least 3× the price used. Review the assumptions behind the gap.
USD · TTM ending Jun 30, 2026 · Price Sep 24, 8:00 PM UTC
What each scenario assumes. Click a column to start from it.
Price vs Fundamentals
Why The Stock Is Moving
What changed
The stock fell 24.32% over the last year. Revenue declined 2.55% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 8.4% to 6.79%. Free cash flow declined 7.54% over the trailing twelve months.
What the market seems to be pricing
The market is reacting to weaker business momentum more than just compressing the valuation multiple. Even if the shares already screen cheap on P/FCF, investors are still discounting lower future earnings power.
What would invalidate this read
Operating margin stands at 6.79%. Revenue declined 2.55% — this read reverses if that trend stabilizes. Free cash flow fell 7.54% — a return toward positive territory would undermine the deterioration thesis. If margins and cash flow stabilize while the stock stays depressed, the gap shifts from fundamental damage toward pure multiple compression.
Return analysis
Company profile
LKQ Corporation, established in 1998 and headquartered in Chicago, Illinois, specializes in distributing replacement parts and systems essential for vehicle repair and maintenance.
Market multiples
Stock splits
Every 1 shares became 2
Every 1 shares became 2
Every 1 shares became 2
Profitability & growth
Analyst consensus
19
Buy
3
Hold
0
Sell
Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.
Earnings
Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.
Next report
Oct 29, 2026
Q4 FY26 · EPS est $0.70 · Revenue est $3.42B
View
Institutional Sentiment
LKQ Corporation · LKQ
From Form 13F filings (managers with $100M+). Filings land up to 45 days after quarter end — read this as positioning context, not live fund flow.