NYSE · LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - General
$1,417.54▲ 3.19% ($43.84)at close
After hours$1,417.05▼ 0.03%7:59 PM ET
Valuation
Revenue & margin DCF
Verdict: fairly priced. Price between Bear and Base.
The price needs 17.5% revenue growth a year for 10 years. Our scenarios assume 13.0–22.6%.
That's below its past 4-year pace of 23.2%.
Value per share
Base case
$1,517.65
Price used $1,417.54 is 7% below this
USD · TTM ending Sep 30, 2026 · Price Oct 30, 8:02 PM UTC
Revenue each value needs
Revenue today $86.5B. The price needs $434B by 2036. Base case: $456B. At its recent pace: $695B. Bear to Bull: $294B to $661B.
Revenue today $86.5B. The price needs $434B by 2036. Base case: $456B. At its recent pace: $695B. Bear to Bull: $294B to $661B.
Revenue in 2036
today $86.5B
−$21.8Bless than the Base case
Value per share · Base case
$1,517.65
Price $1,417.54
7% below this
- 10-yr revenue CAGR
- 18.1%
- Ending operating margin
- 30.0%
- Discount rate
- 6.8%
USD · TTM ending Sep 30, 2026 · Price Oct 30, 8:02 PM UTC
What each scenario assumes. Click a column to start from it.
Price vs Fundamentals
Why The Stock Is Moving
What changed
The stock rose 67.86% over the last year. Revenue grew 45.51% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 44.41% to 46.07%. Free cash flow grew 117.95% over the trailing twelve months.
What the market seems to be pricing
The stock is trading toward the richer end of its historical P/FCF range (84th percentile) while business metrics are improving. More of the upside is already embedded in the multiple now.
What would invalidate this read
Operating margin is at 46.07% — continued expansion would be needed to justify the premium. Revenue growth of 45.51% is encouraging, but any deceleration puts the stretched multiple at risk. This read changes if revenue, margins, and cash flow continue to improve faster than expected — in that case the richer multiple could still prove conservative.
Return analysis
Company profile
Eli Lilly and Company is a prominent global pharmaceutical firm dedicated to the research, development, and commercialization of human medicines across the world.
Market multiples
Stock splits
Every 1 shares became 2
Every 1 shares became 2
Every 1 shares became 2
Every 1 shares became 2
Profitability & growth
Analyst consensus
34
Buy
9
Hold
3
Sell
Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.
Earnings
Actuals vs estimates by quarter, or any quarter against the same one a year earlier.
Next report
Feb 3, 2027
Q4 FY26 · EPS est $11.07 · Revenue est $24.4B
Same quarter, year over year
FY26 YTD +46.4%Each cell vs the same quarter a year earlier (the cell below) · Q1–Q3 combined $24.41 vs $16.67 · all 3 quarters up
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
FY total
FY26
—
FY25
FY24
FY23
—
—
—
—
Fiscal year totals
- FY25
- $24.21
- +86.2%
- FY24
- $13.00
- —
Q3 FY26
Reported Oct 29, 2026 · Latest
HoverTap a cell to inspect
Actual
$7.48
Estimate
$5.71
Year over year
+6.6%
Vs prior quarter
-10.7%
Institutional Sentiment
Eli Lilly and Company · LLY
From Form 13F filings (managers with $100M+). Filings land up to 45 days after quarter end — read this as positioning context, not live fund flow.