NYSE · MCD

McDonald's Corporation

Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants

$248.24▼ 0.10% ($0.24)at close

After hours$248.97▲ 0.29%7:59 PM ET

52-week

$247.65$341.75

Market cap

$176.38B

P/E

20.16

EPS (TTM)

$12.32

Next earnings

Nov 4, 2026

What the market price implies · Reverse DCF

To support a price of $248.24, this model requires Stage 1 FCFF to grow by -2.25%/yr over the next 5 years, compounded annually.

Historical FCFF grew by 6%/yr over the past 10 years. The required annual growth rate is 8.25 percentage points lower.

Selected forecast · Base scenario

6%/yr · Stage 1 default · years 1–5

Annual overrides take precedence over the Stage 1 default.

Market-implied · Other assumptions held fixed

-2.25%/yr · Stage 1 · years 1–5

Stage 1 growth is solved while Stage 2 growth, terminal growth, discount inputs, and annual overrides remain fixed. This is a model-implied requirement, not an analyst forecast.

Valuation

Recommended · Cash-flow DCF

Price used

$248.24

Estimated value / share

$386.59

Base scenario

This estimate is 55.73% above the price used.

USD · TTM ending 2026-06-30

FCFF base normalized by replacing latest capex with the company's trailing median capex-to-revenue ratio.

Historical FCFF CAGR and the default growth rates are taken from the raw historical series. The valuation base is normalized for the current-period DCF.

Market beta (0.41) is below the minimum default of 0.5 — short lookback windows can understate systematic risk. Beta floored at 0.5 for default assumptions; adjust manually if needed.

Reported total debt includes capitalised leases (~27% of the total). They are excluded from net debt and from the WACC weights because rent is already charged inside operating income. The Net Debt shown here is therefore lower than the balance-sheet figure elsewhere on this page.

Stage 1 6% · Stage 2 3.5% · Discount rate 6.91%

Assumption scenarios, not statistical confidence intervals.

Method, dates & sources

Estimated from future free cash flow, discounted to its value today.

Price timestamp: Sep 18, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC
Financial statement period: TTM ending 2026-06-30
Data refreshed: Sep 20, 2026, 7:52 AM UTC · cache

Why this method?

FCFF is positive, but the year-to-year swings are too large for a direct CAGR. Normalize the cash-flow base first, then run DCF.

Is FCFF positive and has it been for 3+ consecutive years? 30 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Is FCFF stable (not swinging >30% year to year)? The largest recent FCFF swing is 32.2%.

Price vs Fundamentals

Why The Stock Is Moving

Likely multiple compressionModerate confidence

1Y Price: -17.57%Revenue (TTM): 6.31%FCF (TTM): 12.53%P/FCF: 3rd pct

What changed

The stock fell 17.57% over the last year. Revenue grew 6.31% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 45.8% to 45.84%. Free cash flow grew 12.53% over the trailing twelve months.

What the market seems to be pricing

Visible fundamentals weakened far less than the stock price, and the shares now sit around the 3rd percentile of their historical P/FCF range. That looks more like a rerating of the multiple than a collapse in the business.

What would invalidate this read

This read changes if operating margin (currently 45.84%) continues to decline, or if revenue growth turns negative. The bull case requires the business to hold its current trajectory.

Performance

Return analysis

Company profile

McDonald's Corporation operates and licenses its renowned fast-food chain worldwide, with a significant presence in both the United States and international markets.

CEOChristopher J. Kempczinski

SectorConsumer Cyclical

IndustryRestaurants

Employees150,000

IPO dateApr 21, 1965

https://www.mcdonalds.com

Market multiples

Forward P/E—

EV/EBITDA18.59

Enterprise value$272.08B

Stock splits

Mar 8, 1999↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

Jun 27, 1994↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

Jun 19, 1989↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

Jun 23, 1987↑ Forward

Every 2 shares became 3

+50%

Jun 26, 1986↑ Forward

Every 2 shares became 3

+50%

Sep 25, 1984↑ Forward

Every 2 shares became 3

+50%

Oct 7, 1982↑ Forward

Every 2 shares became 3

+50%

Jun 6, 1972↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

Profitability & growth

Revenue growth3.76%

Gross margin (FY2025)57.41%▲0.7ppvs FY2024

Operating margin (FY2025)46.1%▲0.9ppvs FY2024

ROEN/A

Analyst consensus

RatingBuy

Target price$304.29▲22.58%

Buy

Hold

Sell

Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.

Earnings

Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.

Next report

Nov 4, 2026

Q4 FY26 · EPS est $3.39 · Revenue est $7.32B

View

Dividends

$7.51/shareQuarterlyDividend Achiever · 18yrAdequate

MCD pays a dividend with a 3.03% declared yield, 18 consecutive years of growth, growing at 7.42% annually, covered 1.4× by free cash flow.

Declared Yield

3.03%

Annual Div / Share

$7.51

5yr CAGR

+7.42%

Doubles every ~9.7yr

Payout Ratio

59.46%

Adequate

Dividend Growth Rate

3yr CAGR

+6.43%

5yr CAGR

+7.42%

10yr CAGR

+7.6%

Dividend Safety

6/10Adequate

Dividend History

Annualized dividend cycles per share

YearAnnual DivYoY

2026$7.51+4.7%

2025$7.17+5.8%

2024$6.78+8.8%

2023$6.23+10.1%

2022$5.66+7.8%

2021$5.25+4.2%

2020$5.04+6.6%

Income Projection

Invest

USD

Growth rate:

Reinvest dividends

Today

$30/yr

$3/mo

In 5 yrs

$43/yr+43%

$4/mo

In 10 yrs

$62/yr+105%

$5/mo

Today	In 5 yrs	In 10 yrs
$30/yr $3/mo	$43/yr+43% $4/mo	$62/yr+105% $5/mo

Yield-on-cost grows from 3.03% → 6.19% over 10yr

Analysis

Dividend Strengths

Dividend Achiever

MCD has raised its dividend for 18 consecutive years — qualifying as a Dividend Achiever, demonstrating long-term commitment to shareholder income.

Strong dividend growth rate

The 5-year CAGR of 7.42% meaningfully outpaces inflation, compounding real income growth for long-term holders.

Risks to Watch

No strong risk signal stands out from the latest period pair.

NYSE · MCD

McDonald's Corporation

Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants

$248.24▼ 0.10% ($0.24)at close

After hours$248.97▲ 0.29%7:59 PM ET

52-week

$247.65$341.75

Market cap

$176.38B

P/E

20.16

EPS (TTM)

$12.32

Next earnings

Nov 4, 2026

What the market price implies · Reverse DCF

To support a price of $248.24, this model requires Stage 1 FCFF to grow by -2.25%/yr over the next 5 years, compounded annually.

Historical FCFF grew by 6%/yr over the past 10 years. The required annual growth rate is 8.25 percentage points lower.

Selected forecast · Base scenario

6%/yr · Stage 1 default · years 1–5

Annual overrides take precedence over the Stage 1 default.

Market-implied · Other assumptions held fixed

-2.25%/yr · Stage 1 · years 1–5

Stage 1 growth is solved while Stage 2 growth, terminal growth, discount inputs, and annual overrides remain fixed. This is a model-implied requirement, not an analyst forecast.

Valuation

Recommended · Cash-flow DCF

Price used

$248.24

Estimated value / share

$386.59

Base scenario

This estimate is 55.73% above the price used.

USD · TTM ending 2026-06-30

FCFF base normalized by replacing latest capex with the company's trailing median capex-to-revenue ratio.

Historical FCFF CAGR and the default growth rates are taken from the raw historical series. The valuation base is normalized for the current-period DCF.

Market beta (0.41) is below the minimum default of 0.5 — short lookback windows can understate systematic risk. Beta floored at 0.5 for default assumptions; adjust manually if needed.

Stage 1 6% · Stage 2 3.5% · Discount rate 6.91%

Assumption scenarios, not statistical confidence intervals.

Method, dates & sources

Estimated from future free cash flow, discounted to its value today.

Price timestamp: Sep 18, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC
Financial statement period: TTM ending 2026-06-30
Data refreshed: Sep 20, 2026, 7:52 AM UTC · cache

Why this method?

FCFF is positive, but the year-to-year swings are too large for a direct CAGR. Normalize the cash-flow base first, then run DCF.

Is FCFF positive and has it been for 3+ consecutive years? 30 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Is FCFF stable (not swinging >30% year to year)? The largest recent FCFF swing is 32.2%.

Price vs Fundamentals

Why The Stock Is Moving

Likely multiple compressionModerate confidence

1Y Price: -17.57%Revenue (TTM): 6.31%FCF (TTM): 12.53%P/FCF: 3rd pct

What changed

The stock fell 17.57% over the last year. Revenue grew 6.31% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 45.8% to 45.84%. Free cash flow grew 12.53% over the trailing twelve months.

What the market seems to be pricing

What would invalidate this read

This read changes if operating margin (currently 45.84%) continues to decline, or if revenue growth turns negative. The bull case requires the business to hold its current trajectory.

Performance

Return analysis

Company profile

McDonald's Corporation operates and licenses its renowned fast-food chain worldwide, with a significant presence in both the United States and international markets.

CEOChristopher J. Kempczinski

SectorConsumer Cyclical

IndustryRestaurants

Employees150,000

IPO dateApr 21, 1965

https://www.mcdonalds.com

Market multiples

Forward P/E—

EV/EBITDA18.59

Enterprise value$272.08B

Stock splits

Mar 8, 1999↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

Jun 27, 1994↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

Jun 19, 1989↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

Jun 23, 1987↑ Forward

Every 2 shares became 3

+50%

Jun 26, 1986↑ Forward

Every 2 shares became 3

+50%

Sep 25, 1984↑ Forward

Every 2 shares became 3

+50%

Oct 7, 1982↑ Forward

Every 2 shares became 3

+50%

Jun 6, 1972↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

Profitability & growth

Revenue growth3.76%

Gross margin (FY2025)57.41%▲0.7ppvs FY2024

Operating margin (FY2025)46.1%▲0.9ppvs FY2024

ROEN/A

Analyst consensus

RatingBuy

Target price$304.29▲22.58%

Buy

Hold

Sell

Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.

Earnings

Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.

Next report

Nov 4, 2026

Q4 FY26 · EPS est $3.39 · Revenue est $7.32B

View

Dividends

$7.51/shareQuarterlyDividend Achiever · 18yrAdequate

MCD pays a dividend with a 3.03% declared yield, 18 consecutive years of growth, growing at 7.42% annually, covered 1.4× by free cash flow.

Declared Yield

3.03%

Annual Div / Share

$7.51

5yr CAGR

+7.42%

Doubles every ~9.7yr

Payout Ratio

59.46%

Adequate

Dividend Growth Rate

3yr CAGR

+6.43%

5yr CAGR

+7.42%

10yr CAGR

+7.6%

Dividend Safety

6/10Adequate

Dividend History

Annualized dividend cycles per share

YearAnnual DivYoY

2026$7.51+4.7%

2025$7.17+5.8%

2024$6.78+8.8%

2023$6.23+10.1%

2022$5.66+7.8%

2021$5.25+4.2%

2020$5.04+6.6%

Income Projection

Invest

USD

Growth rate:

Reinvest dividends

Today

$30/yr

$3/mo

In 5 yrs

$43/yr+43%

$4/mo

In 10 yrs

$62/yr+105%

$5/mo

Today	In 5 yrs	In 10 yrs
$30/yr $3/mo	$43/yr+43% $4/mo	$62/yr+105% $5/mo

Yield-on-cost grows from 3.03% → 6.19% over 10yr

Analysis

Dividend Strengths

Dividend Achiever

MCD has raised its dividend for 18 consecutive years — qualifying as a Dividend Achiever, demonstrating long-term commitment to shareholder income.

Strong dividend growth rate

The 5-year CAGR of 7.42% meaningfully outpaces inflation, compounding real income growth for long-term holders.

Risks to Watch

No strong risk signal stands out from the latest period pair.