NASDAQ · MOMO

Hello Group Inc.

Communication Services · Internet Content & Information

$5.03▲ 0.80% ($0.04)at close

After hours$5.05▲ 0.40%7:32 PM ET

52-week

$4.86$7.70

What the market price implies · Reverse DCF

Historical FCFF grew by 12.13%/yr over the past 10 years.

Selected forecast · Base scenario

12.13%/yr · Stage 1 default · years 1–5

Annual overrides take precedence over the Stage 1 default.

Market-implied · Other assumptions held fixed

Unavailable · Stage 1 · years 1–5

Stage 1 growth is solved while Stage 2 growth, terminal growth, discount inputs, and annual overrides remain fixed. This is a model-implied requirement, not an analyst forecast.

No supported Stage 1 FCFF growth rate matches this price with these operating assumptions.

Valuation

Recommended · Cash-flow DCF

Price used

$5.03

Estimated value / share

$36.89

Base scenario

This estimate is 633.4% above the price used.

USD · TTM ending 2026-06-30

FCFF base normalized by replacing latest capex with the company's trailing median capex-to-revenue ratio.

CapEx normalization was capped: company appears to be in a multi-year investment cycle. Median-based capex floor applied at 60% of TTM capex.

Historical FCFF CAGR and the default growth rates are taken from the raw historical series. The valuation base is normalized for the current-period DCF.

Reported total debt includes capitalised leases (~95% of the total). They are excluded from net debt and from the WACC weights because rent is already charged inside operating income. The Net Debt shown here is therefore lower than the balance-sheet figure elsewhere on this page.

This estimate is at least 3× the price used. Review the assumptions behind the gap.

Stage 1 12.13% · Stage 2 6.67% · Discount rate 7.93%

Assumption scenarios, not statistical confidence intervals.

Method, dates & sources

Estimated from future free cash flow, discounted to its value today.

Price timestamp: Sep 22, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC
Financial statement period: TTM ending 2026-06-30
Data refreshed: Sep 23, 2026, 3:40 AM UTC · cache

Why this method?

FCFF is positive, but the year-to-year swings are too large for a direct CAGR. Normalize the cash-flow base first, then run DCF.

Is FCFF positive and has it been for 3+ consecutive years? 11 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Is FCFF stable (not swinging >30% year to year)? The largest recent FCFF swing is 94.3%. Latest capex is 2.5x the prior median, which points to a capex supercycle that should be normalized first.

Price vs Fundamentals

Why The Stock Is Moving

Likely fundamental deteriorationModerate confidence

1Y Price: -33.29%Revenue (TTM): -3.37%FCF (TTM): -11.71%P/FCF: 5th pct

What changed

The stock fell 33.29% over the last year. Revenue declined 3.37% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 12.92% to 11.75%. Free cash flow declined 11.71% over the trailing twelve months.

What the market seems to be pricing

The market is reacting to weaker business momentum more than just compressing the valuation multiple. Even if the shares already screen cheap on P/FCF, investors are still discounting lower future earnings power.

What would invalidate this read

Operating margin stands at 11.75%. Revenue declined 3.37% — this read reverses if that trend stabilizes. Free cash flow fell 11.71% — a return toward positive territory would undermine the deterioration thesis. If margins and cash flow stabilize while the stock stays depressed, the gap shifts from fundamental damage toward pure multiple compression.

Performance

Return analysis

Company profile

Hello Group Inc. delivers a suite of mobile-centric social and entertainment offerings across the People's Republic of China.

CEOYan Tang

SectorCommunication Services

IndustryInternet Content & Information

Employees1,400

IPO dateDec 11, 2014

https://ir.hellogroup.com

Market multiples

Forward P/E—

EV/EBITDA1.26

Enterprise value$2.3B

Stock splits

Nov 14, 2011↓ Reverse

Every 30 shares became 1

-97%

Profitability & growth

Revenue growth-5.03%

Gross margin (FY2025)37.82%▼1.1ppvs FY2024

Operating margin (FY2025)13.07%▼1.4ppvs FY2024

ROE10.2%▲3.0ppvs FY2025

Analyst consensus

RatingBuy

Target price$10.00▲98.81%

Buy

Hold

Sell

Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.

Earnings

Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.

Next report

Dec 4, 2026

Q4 FY26 · EPS est $0.20 · Revenue est $364.69M

View

Dividends

$0.28/shareAnnualSafe

MOMO pays a dividend with a 5.57% dividend yield, covered 2.0× by free cash flow.

Dividend Yield

5.57%

Annual Div / Share

$0.28

TTM $1.88

5yr CAGR

-15.24%

Dividend has been cut

Payout Ratio

24.99%

Safe

Dividend Growth Rate

3yr CAGR

-27.01%

5yr CAGR

-15.24%

Dividend Safety

9/10Safe

Dividend History

Annualized dividend cycles per share

YearAnnual DivYoY

2026$0.28-6.7%

2025$0.30-44.4%

2024$0.54-25.0%

2023$0.72+12.5%

2022$0.64+0.0%

2021$0.64-15.8%

2020$0.76+22.6%

Income Projection

Invest

USD

Growth rate:

Reinvest dividends

Today

$56/yr

$5/mo

In 5 yrs

$56/yr

$5/mo

In 10 yrs

$56/yr

$5/mo

Today	In 5 yrs	In 10 yrs
$56/yr $5/mo	$56/yr $5/mo	$56/yr $5/mo

Analysis

Dividend Strengths

Well-covered by free cash flow

The dividend is covered 2.0× by free cash flow, indicating the company generates sufficient cash to sustain and potentially grow the payout without straining its finances.

Risks to Watch

Dividend has been reduced

The 5-year dividend CAGR of -15.24% is negative, indicating the payout has been cut over this period.

NASDAQ · MOMO

Hello Group Inc.

Communication Services · Internet Content & Information

$5.03▲ 0.80% ($0.04)at close

After hours$5.05▲ 0.40%7:32 PM ET

52-week

$4.86$7.70

What the market price implies · Reverse DCF

Historical FCFF grew by 12.13%/yr over the past 10 years.

Selected forecast · Base scenario

12.13%/yr · Stage 1 default · years 1–5

Annual overrides take precedence over the Stage 1 default.

Market-implied · Other assumptions held fixed

Unavailable · Stage 1 · years 1–5

Stage 1 growth is solved while Stage 2 growth, terminal growth, discount inputs, and annual overrides remain fixed. This is a model-implied requirement, not an analyst forecast.

No supported Stage 1 FCFF growth rate matches this price with these operating assumptions.

Valuation

Recommended · Cash-flow DCF

Price used

$5.03

Estimated value / share

$36.89

Base scenario

This estimate is 633.4% above the price used.

USD · TTM ending 2026-06-30

FCFF base normalized by replacing latest capex with the company's trailing median capex-to-revenue ratio.

CapEx normalization was capped: company appears to be in a multi-year investment cycle. Median-based capex floor applied at 60% of TTM capex.

Historical FCFF CAGR and the default growth rates are taken from the raw historical series. The valuation base is normalized for the current-period DCF.

This estimate is at least 3× the price used. Review the assumptions behind the gap.

Stage 1 12.13% · Stage 2 6.67% · Discount rate 7.93%

Assumption scenarios, not statistical confidence intervals.

Method, dates & sources

Estimated from future free cash flow, discounted to its value today.

Price timestamp: Sep 22, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC
Financial statement period: TTM ending 2026-06-30
Data refreshed: Sep 23, 2026, 3:40 AM UTC · cache

Why this method?

FCFF is positive, but the year-to-year swings are too large for a direct CAGR. Normalize the cash-flow base first, then run DCF.

Is FCFF positive and has it been for 3+ consecutive years? 11 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Is FCFF stable (not swinging >30% year to year)? The largest recent FCFF swing is 94.3%. Latest capex is 2.5x the prior median, which points to a capex supercycle that should be normalized first.

Price vs Fundamentals

Why The Stock Is Moving

Likely fundamental deteriorationModerate confidence

1Y Price: -33.29%Revenue (TTM): -3.37%FCF (TTM): -11.71%P/FCF: 5th pct

What changed

What the market seems to be pricing

What would invalidate this read

Performance

Return analysis

Company profile

Hello Group Inc. delivers a suite of mobile-centric social and entertainment offerings across the People's Republic of China.

CEOYan Tang

SectorCommunication Services

IndustryInternet Content & Information

Employees1,400

IPO dateDec 11, 2014

https://ir.hellogroup.com

Market multiples

Forward P/E—

EV/EBITDA1.26

Enterprise value$2.3B

Stock splits

Nov 14, 2011↓ Reverse

Every 30 shares became 1

-97%

Profitability & growth

Revenue growth-5.03%

Gross margin (FY2025)37.82%▼1.1ppvs FY2024

Operating margin (FY2025)13.07%▼1.4ppvs FY2024

ROE10.2%▲3.0ppvs FY2025

Analyst consensus

RatingBuy

Target price$10.00▲98.81%

Buy

Hold

Sell

Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.

Earnings

Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.

Next report

Dec 4, 2026

Q4 FY26 · EPS est $0.20 · Revenue est $364.69M

View

Dividends

$0.28/shareAnnualSafe

MOMO pays a dividend with a 5.57% dividend yield, covered 2.0× by free cash flow.

Dividend Yield

5.57%

Annual Div / Share

$0.28

TTM $1.88

5yr CAGR

-15.24%

Dividend has been cut

Payout Ratio

24.99%

Safe

Dividend Growth Rate

3yr CAGR

-27.01%

5yr CAGR

-15.24%

Dividend Safety

9/10Safe

Dividend History

Annualized dividend cycles per share

YearAnnual DivYoY

2026$0.28-6.7%

2025$0.30-44.4%

2024$0.54-25.0%

2023$0.72+12.5%

2022$0.64+0.0%

2021$0.64-15.8%

2020$0.76+22.6%

Income Projection

Invest

USD

Growth rate:

Reinvest dividends

Today

$56/yr

$5/mo

In 5 yrs

$56/yr

$5/mo

In 10 yrs

$56/yr

$5/mo

Today	In 5 yrs	In 10 yrs
$56/yr $5/mo	$56/yr $5/mo	$56/yr $5/mo

Analysis

Dividend Strengths

Well-covered by free cash flow

The dividend is covered 2.0× by free cash flow, indicating the company generates sufficient cash to sustain and potentially grow the payout without straining its finances.

Risks to Watch

Dividend has been reduced

The 5-year dividend CAGR of -15.24% is negative, indicating the payout has been cut over this period.