Reading the tape
NYSE: MOS
The Mosaic Company
Basic Materials · Agricultural Inputs
Market Cap
$6.92B
52w High
$38.23
52w Low
$21.17
P/E
9.51
Volume
13.75M
Outstanding Shares
317.85M
Price vs Fundamentals
Why The Stock Is Moving
Mixed / unclearLow confidence
1Y Price: -33.84%Revenue (TTM): 8.99%FCF (TTM): -330.26%P/E: 39th pct
What changed
The stock fell 33.84% over the last year. Revenue grew 8.99% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 7.11% to 3.71%. Free cash flow declined 330.26% over the trailing twelve months.
What the market seems to be pricing
The stock has moved lower against modestly weakening underlying metrics. The operating data does not yet tell a clear story — the move may reflect sentiment, sector rotation, or macro factors rather than company-specific earnings power.
What would invalidate this read
Operating margin currently stands at 3.71%. A decisive move in revenue — currently up 8.99% — would be the clearest signal to resolve the ambiguity.
Company profile
The Mosaic Company, through its subsidiaries, produces and markets concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients in North America and internationally.
CEOBruce Bodine Jr.
SectorBasic Materials
IndustryAgricultural Inputs
Employees13,765
IPO dateJan 26, 1988
Valuation
Forward P/E—
EV/EBITDA4.84
Enterprise value$12.65B
Stock splits
Dec 1, 1995↑ Forward
Every 1 shares became 2
Profitability & growth
Revenue growth14.39%
Gross margin13.89%▲10.90%vs FY2024
Operating margin3.71%▲55.87%vs FY2024
ROE4.47%▲193.74%vs FY2024
Analyst consensus
RatingHold
Target price$31.25▲43.52%
14
Buy
28
Hold
7
Sell
Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.
Earnings
Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.
Next report
May 11, 2026
Q2 FY26 · EPS est $0.20 · Revenue est $2.93B
View
Dividends
$0.88/shareQuarterly8yr growth streakEx-div May 21, 2026 · in 10dAt RiskMOS pays a dividend with a 4.04% declared yield, 8 consecutive years of growth, growing at 28.62% annually, covered -1.9× by free cash flow.
Declared Yield
4.04%
Annual Div / Share
$0.88
5yr CAGR
+28.62%
Doubles every ~2.8yr
Payout Ratio
38.57%
At Risk
Dividend Growth Rate
3yr CAGR
+3.23%
5yr CAGR
+28.62%
10yr CAGR
-2.21%
Dividend Safety
5/10At Risk
Dividend History
Annualized dividend cycles per share
YearAnnual DivYoY
2026$0.88+2.3%
2025$0.86+4.9%
2024$0.82+2.5%
2023$0.80+64.1%
2022$0.49+95.0%
2021$0.25+25.0%
2020$0.20+33.3%
Income Projection
Invest
$
Growth rate:
Reinvest dividends
Today
$40/yr
$3/mo
In 5 yrs
$71/yr+76%
$6/mo
In 10 yrs
$126/yr+211%
$10/mo
| Today | In 5 yrs | In 10 yrs |
|---|---|---|
$40/yr $3/mo | $71/yr+76% $6/mo | $126/yr+211% $10/mo |
Long-range projections use a capped 12% annual growth assumption.
Yield-on-cost grows from 4.04% → 12.55% over 10yr
Analysis
Dividend Strengths
Strong dividend growth rate
The 5-year CAGR of 28.62% meaningfully outpaces inflation, compounding real income growth for long-term holders.
Risks to Watch
Dividend exceeds free cash flow
Free cash flow covers only -1.91× the dividend. The company is paying out more than it generates in cash, which is unsustainable without borrowing or asset sales.