Reading the tape
NYSE: MPC
Marathon Petroleum Corporation
Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Market Cap
$76.72B
52w High
$261.61
52w Low
$141.91
P/E
16.59
Volume
2.50M
Outstanding Shares
294.50M
Price vs Fundamentals
Why The Stock Is Moving
Optimism is getting priced inHigh confidence
1Y Price: 81.76%Revenue (TTM): -1.4%FCF (TTM): 27.9%P/FCF: 71st pct
What changed
The stock rose 81.76% over the last year. Revenue declined 1.4% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 3.66% to 5.02%. Free cash flow grew 27.9% over the trailing twelve months.
What the market seems to be pricing
The stock is trading toward the richer end of its historical P/FCF range (71st percentile) while business metrics are improving. More of the upside is already embedded in the multiple now.
What would invalidate this read
Operating margin is at 5.02% — continued expansion would be needed to justify the premium. This read changes if revenue, margins, and cash flow continue to improve faster than expected — in that case the richer multiple could still prove conservative.
Company profile
Marathon Petroleum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated downstream energy company primarily in the United States.
CEOMaryann T. Mannen
SectorEnergy
IndustryOil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Employees18,300
IPO dateJun 24, 2011
Valuation
Forward P/E—
EV/EBITDA6.88
Enterprise value$80.29B
Stock splits
Jun 11, 2015↑ Forward
Every 1 shares became 2
Profitability & growth
Revenue growth9.68%
Gross margin8.8%▲12.70%vs FY2024
Operating margin5.02%▲15.01%vs FY2024
ROE23.37%▲20.40%vs FY2024
Analyst consensus
RatingBuy
Target price$216.63▼16.84%
25
Buy
8
Hold
0
Sell
Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.
Earnings
Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.
Next report
May 5, 2026
Q2 FY26 · EPS est $0.74 · Revenue est $33.42B
View
Dividends
$3.91/shareQuarterlyDividend Achiever · 14yrEx-div May 20, 2026 · in 14dSafeMPC pays a dividend with a 1.5% declared yield, 14 consecutive years of growth, growing at 11% annually, covered 4.2× by free cash flow.
Declared Yield
1.5%
Annual Div / Share
$3.91
TTM $3.82
5yr CAGR
+11%
Doubles every ~6.6yr
Payout Ratio
24.83%
Safe
Dividend Growth Rate
3yr CAGR
+11.38%
5yr CAGR
+11%
10yr CAGR
+11.81%
Dividend Safety
10/10Safe
Dividend History
Annualized dividend cycles per share
YearAnnual DivYoY
2026$3.91+10.0%
2025$3.56+10.2%
2024$3.23+14.0%
2023$2.83+22.0%
2022$2.32+0.0%
2021$2.32+4.5%
2020$2.22+12.1%
Income Projection
Invest
$
Growth rate:
Reinvest dividends
Today
$15/yr
$1/mo
In 5 yrs
$25/yr+69%
$2/mo
In 10 yrs
$43/yr+184%
$4/mo
| Today | In 5 yrs | In 10 yrs |
|---|---|---|
$15/yr $1/mo | $25/yr+69% $2/mo | $43/yr+184% $4/mo |
Yield-on-cost grows from 1.5% → 4.26% over 10yr
Analysis
Dividend Strengths
Dividend Achiever
MPC has raised its dividend for 14 consecutive years — qualifying as a Dividend Achiever, demonstrating long-term commitment to shareholder income.
Well-covered by free cash flow
The dividend is covered 4.2× by free cash flow, indicating the company generates sufficient cash to sustain and potentially grow the payout without straining its finances.
Strong dividend growth rate
The 5-year CAGR of 11% meaningfully outpaces inflation, compounding real income growth for long-term holders.
Risks to Watch
No strong risk signal stands out from the latest period pair.
Congressional Activity
Congress Trades in MPC
STOCK Act disclosures from senators and representatives.
David Taylor
OHhouseRepublicanSale2026-03-11$1,001 - $15,000+12d to disclose