NYSE · MPC
Marathon Petroleum Corporation
Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
$463.72▲ 0.08% ($0.38)today
As of 9:52 AM ET
Market cap
$135.38B
Valuation
Revenue & margin DCF
Verdict: cheap. Price below all scenarios.
The price holds with revenue shrinking 2.2% a year for 10 years. Our scenarios assume 7.7–13.3%.
That's below its past 4-year pace of 2.6%.
Value per share
Base case
$1,475.32
Price used $463.72 is 69% below this
USD · TTM ending Jun 30, 2026 · Price Oct 9, 1:52 PM UTC
This estimate is at least 3× the price used. Review the growth, margin and investment assumptions behind the gap.
Revenue each value needs
Revenue today $154B. The price needs $124B by 2036. Base case: $422B. At its recent pace: $198B. Bear to Bull: $322B to $535B.
Revenue today $154B. The price needs $124B by 2036. Base case: $422B. At its recent pace: $198B. Bear to Bull: $322B to $535B.
Revenue in 2036
today $154B
−$299Bless than the Base case
Value per share · Base case
$1,475.32
Price $463.72
69% below this
- 10-yr revenue CAGR
- 10.6%
- Ending operating margin
- 6.0%
- Discount rate
- 6.8%
This estimate is at least 3× the price used. Review the growth, margin and investment assumptions behind the gap.
USD · TTM ending Jun 30, 2026 · Price Oct 9, 1:52 PM UTC
What each scenario assumes. Click a column to start from it.
Price vs Fundamentals
Why The Stock Is Moving
What changed
The stock rose 145.53% over the last year. Revenue grew 15.26% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 3.3% to 7.95%. Free cash flow grew 253.69% over the trailing twelve months.
What the market seems to be pricing
The stock move broadly lines up with stronger business momentum, and the shares are still only around the 59th percentile of their historical P/FCF range.
What would invalidate this read
Operating margin is at 7.95%. Revenue grew 15.26% — this thesis depends on that trajectory holding. If revenue growth, margins, or free cash flow roll over while the stock keeps climbing, more of the move would be coming from multiple expansion than business progress.
Return analysis
Company profile
Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) functions as a prominent integrated energy enterprise, primarily concentrating its downstream operations across the United States.
Market multiples
Stock splits
Every 1 shares became 2
Profitability & growth
Analyst consensus
25
Buy
8
Hold
0
Sell
Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.
Earnings
Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.
Next report
Nov 3, 2026
Q3 FY26 · EPS est $24.27 · Revenue est $46.72B
View
Institutional Sentiment
Marathon Petroleum Corporation · MPC
From Form 13F filings (managers with $100M+). Filings land up to 45 days after quarter end — read this as positioning context, not live fund flow.