NASDAQ · MRCY
Mercury Systems, Inc.
Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
$82.18▼ 1.20% ($0.99)at close
After hours$82.20▲ 0.02%7:48 PM ET
Valuation
Revenue & margin DCF
Verdict: expensive. Price above all scenarios.
The price needs 35.3% revenue growth a year for 10 years. Our scenarios assume 2.2–4.4%.
That's 141.8× its past 4-year pace.
Value per share
Base case
$8.47
Price used $82.18 is 9.7× this
USD · TTM ending Jul 3, 2026 · Price Sep 25, 8:00 PM UTC
Revenue each value needs
Revenue today $984M. The price needs $20.2B by 2036. Base case: $1.3B. At its recent pace: $1B. Bear to Bull: $1.2B to $1.5B.
Revenue today $984M. The price needs $20.2B by 2036. Base case: $1.3B. At its recent pace: $1B. Bear to Bull: $1.2B to $1.5B.
Revenue in 2036
today $984M
+$18.9Bmore than the Base case · 15.3×
Value per share · Base case
$8.47
Price $82.18
9.7× this
- 10-yr revenue CAGR
- 3.0%
- Ending operating margin
- 2.1%
- Discount rate
- 10.1%
USD · TTM ending Jul 3, 2026 · Price Sep 25, 8:00 PM UTC
What each scenario assumes. Click a column to start from it.
Price vs Fundamentals
Why The Stock Is Moving
What changed
The stock rose 12.38% over the last year. Revenue grew 7.85% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from -2.15% to 0.51%. Free cash flow declined 45.46% over the trailing twelve months.
What the market seems to be pricing
The stock is trading toward the richer end of its historical P/FCF range (74th percentile) while business metrics are improving. More of the upside is already embedded in the multiple now.
What would invalidate this read
Operating margin is at 0.51% — continued expansion would be needed to justify the premium. Revenue growth of 7.85% is encouraging, but any deceleration puts the stretched multiple at risk. This read changes if revenue, margins, and cash flow continue to improve faster than expected — in that case the richer multiple could still prove conservative.
Return analysis
Company profile
Mercury Systems, Inc. is a technology firm dedicated to the creation and delivery of a wide range of advanced components, modules, and integrated subsystems, primarily catering to the aerospace and defense industries.
Market multiples
Stock splits
Every 1 shares became 2
Profitability & growth
Analyst consensus
13
Buy
6
Hold
1
Sell
Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.
Earnings
Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.
Next report
Nov 3, 2026
Q4 FY26 · EPS est $0.28 · Revenue est $245.05M
View
Institutional Sentiment
Mercury Systems, Inc. · MRCY
From Form 13F filings (managers with $100M+). Filings land up to 45 days after quarter end — read this as positioning context, not live fund flow.