Reading the tape
NYSE: MSDL
Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund
Financial Services · Financial - Conglomerates
Market Cap
$1.34B
52w High
$20.00
52w Low
$13.66
P/E
11.26
Volume
460.48K
Outstanding Shares
85.29M
Price vs Fundamentals
Why The Stock Is Moving
Likely fundamental deteriorationModerate confidence
Note: The most recent financial data is over 3 months old. Metrics shown may not reflect the latest reporting period.
1Y Price: -18.05%Revenue (TTM): -12.76%FCF (TTM): 330.82%P/E: 88th pct
What changed
The stock fell 18.05% over the last year. Revenue declined 12.76% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 65.56% to 54.01%. Free cash flow grew 330.82% over the trailing twelve months.
What the market seems to be pricing
The market is reacting to weaker business momentum more than just compressing the valuation multiple. Even if the shares already screen cheap on P/E, investors are still discounting lower future earnings power.
What would invalidate this read
Operating margin stands at 54.01%. Revenue declined 12.76% — this read reverses if that trend stabilizes. If margins and cash flow stabilize while the stock stays depressed, the gap shifts from fundamental damage toward pure multiple compression.
Company profile
Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund is a business development and finance company, which engages in lending to middle-market companies.
CEOMichael Occi Jr.
SectorFinancial Services
IndustryFinancial - Conglomerates
Employees—
IPO dateJan 24, 2024
Valuation
Forward P/E—
EV/EBITDA13.34
Enterprise value$3.44B
Price / Book0.77
Stock splits
No stock splits recorded for this ticker.
Profitability & growth
Standard profitability metrics can be misleading for financial/insurance companies. GAAP requires unrealized investment gains/losses in net income (affecting ROE), and margins are blended across diverse business segments.
Revenue growth3.44%
Gross margin58.73%▲28.55%vs FY2024
Operating margin54.01%▲1.73%vs FY2024
ROE6.98%▼40.31%vs FY2024
Analyst consensus
RatingHold
Target price$16.81▲6.73%
0
Buy
6
Hold
0
Sell
Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.
Earnings
Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.
Next report
May 7, 2026
Q2 FY26 · EPS est $0.45 · Revenue est $91.89M
View
Dividends
$1.95/shareQuarterlyStretchedMSDL pays a dividend with a 12.38% dividend yield, covered 0.8× by free cash flow.
Dividend Yield
12.38%
Annual Div / Share
$1.95
CAGR
—
Payout Ratio
150.73%
Stretched
Dividend Growth Rate
Dividend Safety
2/10Stretched
Dividend History
Annual dividends paid per share
YearAnnual DivYoY
2025$2.00-9.1%
2024$2.20+266.7%
2023$0.60—
Income Projection
Invest
$
Growth rate:
Reinvest dividends
Today
$124/yr
$10/mo
In 5 yrs
$124/yr
$10/mo
In 10 yrs
$124/yr
$10/mo
| Today | In 5 yrs | In 10 yrs |
|---|---|---|
$124/yr $10/mo | $124/yr $10/mo | $124/yr $10/mo |
Analysis
Dividend Strengths
No strong strength signal stands out from the latest period pair.
Risks to Watch
High payout ratio
With 150.73% of earnings paid as dividends, there is limited retained earnings for reinvestment — and a dividend cut becomes more likely if earnings decline.
Dividend exceeds free cash flow
Free cash flow covers only 0.82× the dividend. The company is paying out more than it generates in cash, which is unsustainable without borrowing or asset sales.