NASDAQ · MTCH

Match Group, Inc.

Communication Services · Internet Content & Information

$43.76▲ 0.41% ($0.18)today

As of 11:25 AM ET

52-week

$28.81$44.94

Market cap

$10.21B

P/E

15.32

Volume

499.83K

Shares outstanding

233.27M

What the market price implies · Reverse DCF

To support a price of $43.76, this model requires revenue to grow by 5.28%/yr over the next 10 years, compounded annually.

Historical revenue grew by 3.98%/yr over the past 4 years. The required annual growth rate is 1.31 percentage points higher.

Selected forecast · Base scenario

1.31%/yr · actual 10-year annualized revenue growth

Year 1 growth: 2.05%

Market-implied · Base operating assumptions + edited margins

5.28%/yr · flat 10-year annualized revenue growth

Reverse DCF solves revenue growth itself using Base operating assumptions and your edited margins. Changing forecast growth alone does not change the implied rate. This is a model-implied requirement, not an analyst forecast.

Valuation

Recommended · Revenue & margin DCF

Price used

$43.76

Estimated value / share

$29.92

Base scenario

This estimate is 31.63% below the price used.

USD · TTM ending 2026-06-30

Year 1 growth 2.05% · Ending margin 30% · Discount rate 10.07%

Assumption scenarios, not statistical confidence intervals.

Method, dates & sources

Estimated from future revenue, operating margins, and the investment needed to support them.

Price timestamp: Sep 17, 2026, 3:25 PM UTC
Financial statement period: TTM ending 2026-06-30
Data refreshed: Sep 17, 2026, 3:25 PM UTC · provider

Why this method?

FCFF is positive, but the series is too unstable to anchor a direct cash-flow CAGR and the business still fails the steady-state comparability checks. Use a revenue-and-margin transition model instead of normalizing and compounding current FCFF.

Is FCFF positive and has it been for 3+ consecutive years? 16 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Is FCFF stable (not swinging >30% year to year)? The largest recent FCFF swing is 928.6%.

Do you have 5+ years of positive FCFF history? 16 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Is the business model structurally similar to what it should be in 10 years? Operating margin moved 12.4 percentage points across the last five years, above the 10.0-point stability threshold, so steady-state FCFF is not a reliable anchor yet.

Price vs Fundamentals

Why The Stock Is Moving

Fundamentals are supporting the moveHigh confidence

1Y Price: 16.4%Revenue (TTM): 1.7%FCF (TTM): 25.76%P/FCF: 13th pct

What changed

The stock rose 16.4% over the last year. Revenue grew 1.7% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 23.2% to 28.15%. Free cash flow grew 25.76% over the trailing twelve months.

What the market seems to be pricing

The stock move broadly lines up with stronger business momentum, and the shares are still only around the 13th percentile of their historical P/FCF range.

What would invalidate this read

Operating margin is at 28.15%. Revenue grew 1.7% — this thesis depends on that trajectory holding. If revenue growth, margins, or free cash flow roll over while the stock keeps climbing, more of the move would be coming from multiple expansion than business progress.

Performance

Return analysis

Company profile

Match Group, Inc. provides digital technologies in the United States and internationally.

CEOSpencer Rascoff

SectorCommunication Services

IndustryInternet Content & Information

Employees2,205

IPO dateNov 19, 2015

https://mtch.com

Market multiples

Forward P/E—

EV/EBITDA10.79

Enterprise value$10.78B

Stock splits

Jul 1, 2020↑ Forward

Every 500 shares became 1751

+250%

Aug 21, 2008↑ Forward

Every 500 shares became 573

+15%

Aug 9, 2005↓ Reverse

Every 10 shares became 9

-10%

Feb 25, 2000↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

Mar 27, 1998↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

Profitability & growth

Revenue growth-1.23%

Gross margin (FY2025)72.8%▲1.3ppvs FY2024

Operating margin (FY2025)25.02%▲1.4ppvs FY2024

ROEN/A

Analyst consensus

RatingBuy

Target price$42.29▼3.36%

Buy

Hold

Sell

Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.

Earnings

Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.

Next report

Nov 3, 2026

Q4 FY26 · EPS est $1.05 · Revenue est $891.73M

View

Dividends

$0.79/shareQuarterlyEx-div Oct 5, 2026 · in 18dSafe

MTCH pays a dividend with a 1.81% declared yield, covered 5.5× by free cash flow.

Declared Yield

1.81%

Annual Div / Share

$0.79

CAGR

—

Payout Ratio

25.74%

Safe

Dividend Growth Rate

Dividend Safety

10/10Safe

Dividend History

Annualized dividend cycles per share

YearAnnual DivYoY

2026$0.79+3.9%

2025$0.76—

Income Projection

Invest

USD

Growth rate:

Reinvest dividends

Today

$18/yr

$2/mo

In 5 yrs

$18/yr

$2/mo

In 10 yrs

$18/yr

$2/mo

Today	In 5 yrs	In 10 yrs
$18/yr $2/mo	$18/yr $2/mo	$18/yr $2/mo

Analysis

Dividend Strengths

Well-covered by free cash flow

The dividend is covered 5.5× by free cash flow, indicating the company generates sufficient cash to sustain and potentially grow the payout without straining its finances.

Risks to Watch

No strong risk signal stands out from the latest period pair.

NASDAQ · MTCH

Match Group, Inc.

Communication Services · Internet Content & Information

$43.76▲ 0.41% ($0.18)today

As of 11:25 AM ET

52-week

$28.81$44.94

Market cap

$10.21B

P/E

15.32

Volume

499.83K

Shares outstanding

233.27M

What the market price implies · Reverse DCF

To support a price of $43.76, this model requires revenue to grow by 5.28%/yr over the next 10 years, compounded annually.

Historical revenue grew by 3.98%/yr over the past 4 years. The required annual growth rate is 1.31 percentage points higher.

Selected forecast · Base scenario

1.31%/yr · actual 10-year annualized revenue growth

Year 1 growth: 2.05%

Market-implied · Base operating assumptions + edited margins

5.28%/yr · flat 10-year annualized revenue growth

Valuation

Recommended · Revenue & margin DCF

Price used

$43.76

Estimated value / share

$29.92

Base scenario

This estimate is 31.63% below the price used.

USD · TTM ending 2026-06-30

Year 1 growth 2.05% · Ending margin 30% · Discount rate 10.07%

Assumption scenarios, not statistical confidence intervals.

Method, dates & sources

Estimated from future revenue, operating margins, and the investment needed to support them.

Price timestamp: Sep 17, 2026, 3:25 PM UTC
Financial statement period: TTM ending 2026-06-30
Data refreshed: Sep 17, 2026, 3:25 PM UTC · provider

Why this method?

Is FCFF positive and has it been for 3+ consecutive years? 16 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Is FCFF stable (not swinging >30% year to year)? The largest recent FCFF swing is 928.6%.

Do you have 5+ years of positive FCFF history? 16 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Price vs Fundamentals

Why The Stock Is Moving

Fundamentals are supporting the moveHigh confidence

1Y Price: 16.4%Revenue (TTM): 1.7%FCF (TTM): 25.76%P/FCF: 13th pct

What changed

The stock rose 16.4% over the last year. Revenue grew 1.7% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 23.2% to 28.15%. Free cash flow grew 25.76% over the trailing twelve months.

What the market seems to be pricing

The stock move broadly lines up with stronger business momentum, and the shares are still only around the 13th percentile of their historical P/FCF range.

What would invalidate this read

Performance

Return analysis

Company profile

Match Group, Inc. provides digital technologies in the United States and internationally.

CEOSpencer Rascoff

SectorCommunication Services

IndustryInternet Content & Information

Employees2,205

IPO dateNov 19, 2015

https://mtch.com

Market multiples

Forward P/E—

EV/EBITDA10.79

Enterprise value$10.78B

Stock splits

Jul 1, 2020↑ Forward

Every 500 shares became 1751

+250%

Aug 21, 2008↑ Forward

Every 500 shares became 573

+15%

Aug 9, 2005↓ Reverse

Every 10 shares became 9

-10%

Feb 25, 2000↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

Mar 27, 1998↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

Profitability & growth

Revenue growth-1.23%

Gross margin (FY2025)72.8%▲1.3ppvs FY2024

Operating margin (FY2025)25.02%▲1.4ppvs FY2024

ROEN/A

Analyst consensus

RatingBuy

Target price$42.29▼3.36%

Buy

Hold

Sell

Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.

Earnings

Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.

Next report

Nov 3, 2026

Q4 FY26 · EPS est $1.05 · Revenue est $891.73M

View

Dividends

$0.79/shareQuarterlyEx-div Oct 5, 2026 · in 18dSafe

MTCH pays a dividend with a 1.81% declared yield, covered 5.5× by free cash flow.

Declared Yield

1.81%

Annual Div / Share

$0.79

CAGR

—

Payout Ratio

25.74%

Safe

Dividend Growth Rate

Dividend Safety

10/10Safe

Dividend History

Annualized dividend cycles per share

YearAnnual DivYoY

2026$0.79+3.9%

2025$0.76—

Income Projection

Invest

USD

Growth rate:

Reinvest dividends

Today

$18/yr

$2/mo

In 5 yrs

$18/yr

$2/mo

In 10 yrs

$18/yr

$2/mo

Today	In 5 yrs	In 10 yrs
$18/yr $2/mo	$18/yr $2/mo	$18/yr $2/mo

Analysis

Dividend Strengths

Well-covered by free cash flow

The dividend is covered 5.5× by free cash flow, indicating the company generates sufficient cash to sustain and potentially grow the payout without straining its finances.

Risks to Watch

No strong risk signal stands out from the latest period pair.