Reading the tape
NYSE: MUR
Murphy Oil Corporation
Energy · Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Market Cap
$5.97B
52w High
$43.34
52w Low
$20.20
P/E
57.24
Volume
748.97K
Outstanding Shares
143.35M
Price vs Fundamentals
Why The Stock Is Moving
Momentum disconnected from fundamentalsModerate confidence
Note: The most recent financial data is over 3 months old. Metrics shown may not reflect the latest reporting period.
1Y Price: 102.18%Revenue (TTM): -9.93%FCF (TTM): -87.25%P/FCF: 86th pct
What changed
The stock rose 102.18% over the last year. Revenue declined 9.93% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 19.96% to 11.08%. Free cash flow declined 87.25% over the trailing twelve months.
What the market seems to be pricing
The stock is rising despite deteriorating fundamentals and now sits at the 86th percentile of its historical P/FCF range. This is a momentum-driven move — the market may be front-running a recovery that has not yet appeared in reported numbers.
What would invalidate this read
Operating margin (currently 11.08%) would need to stabilize or improve to justify the move. Revenue is declining 9.93% — a trend reversal in the next report would be the key signal to watch. This read is wrong if the next period shows operating metrics turning the corner. At that point the price would be anticipating real improvement rather than running ahead of it.
Company profile
Murphy Oil Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an oil and natural gas exploration and production company in the United States, Canada, and internationally.
CEOEric Hambly
SectorEnergy
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Employees750
IPO dateMar 17, 1980
Valuation
Forward P/E—
EV/EBITDA5.04
Enterprise value$6.3B
Stock splits
Sep 3, 2013↑ Forward
Every 500 shares became 579
Jun 6, 2005↑ Forward
Every 1 shares became 2
Dec 31, 2002↑ Forward
Every 1 shares became 2
Jun 10, 1980↑ Forward
Every 1 shares became 3
Profitability & growth
Revenue growth-4.11%
Gross margin71.85%▲116.48%vs FY2024
Operating margin11.08%▼44.50%vs FY2024
ROE2.04%▼74.03%vs FY2024
Analyst consensus
RatingHold
Target price$34.00▼18.41%
8
Buy
26
Hold
2
Sell
Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.
Earnings
Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.
Next report
May 6, 2026
Q2 FY26 · EPS est $0.29 · Revenue est $702.96M
View
Dividends
$1.35/shareQuarterly5yr growth streakEx-div May 18, 2026 · in 12dAt RiskMUR pays a dividend with a 3.24% declared yield, 5 consecutive years of growth, growing at 21.98% annually, covered 2.1× by free cash flow.
Declared Yield
3.24%
Annual Div / Share
$1.35
5yr CAGR
+21.98%
Doubles every ~3.5yr
Payout Ratio
178.7%
At Risk
Dividend Growth Rate
3yr CAGR
+8.74%
5yr CAGR
+21.98%
10yr CAGR
-0.36%
Dividend Safety
6/10At Risk
Dividend History
Annualized dividend cycles per share
YearAnnual DivYoY
2026$1.35+8.0%
2025$1.25+8.7%
2024$1.15+9.5%
2023$1.05+82.6%
2022$0.57+15.0%
2021$0.50-42.9%
2020$0.88-12.5%
Income Projection
Invest
$
Growth rate:
Reinvest dividends
Today
$32/yr
$3/mo
In 5 yrs
$57/yr+76%
$5/mo
In 10 yrs
$101/yr+211%
$8/mo
| Today | In 5 yrs | In 10 yrs |
|---|---|---|
$32/yr $3/mo | $57/yr+76% $5/mo | $101/yr+211% $8/mo |
Long-range projections use a capped 12% annual growth assumption.
Yield-on-cost grows from 3.24% → 10.06% over 10yr
Analysis
Dividend Strengths
Well-covered by free cash flow
The dividend is covered 2.1× by free cash flow, indicating the company generates sufficient cash to sustain and potentially grow the payout without straining its finances.
Strong dividend growth rate
The 5-year CAGR of 21.98% meaningfully outpaces inflation, compounding real income growth for long-term holders.
Risks to Watch
High payout ratio
With 178.7% of earnings paid as dividends, there is limited retained earnings for reinvestment — and a dividend cut becomes more likely if earnings decline.