NYSE · NI

NiSource Inc

Utilities · Regulated Gas

$40.90▲ 0.58% ($0.23)at close

After hours$40.91▲ 0.04%7:34 PM ET

52-week

$39.33$49.21

Market cap

What the market price implies · Reverse DCF

To support a price of $40.90, this model requires revenue to grow by 4.47%/yr over the next 10 years, compounded annually.

Historical revenue grew by 7.9%/yr over the past 4 years. The required annual growth rate is 3.43 percentage points lower.

Selected forecast · Base scenario

2.48%/yr · actual 10-year annualized revenue growth

Year 1 growth: 3.87%

Market-implied · Base operating assumptions + edited margins

4.47%/yr · flat 10-year annualized revenue growth

Reverse DCF solves revenue growth itself using Base operating assumptions and your edited margins. Changing forecast growth alone does not change the implied rate. This is a model-implied requirement, not an analyst forecast.

Valuation

Recommended · Revenue & margin DCF

Price used

$40.90

Estimated value / share

$28.77

Base scenario

This estimate is 29.66% below the price used.

USD · TTM ending 2026-06-30

Latest quarterly growth differs materially from the latest annual pace. It remains an observed growth input; review whether acceleration or a change in the business explains it.

Year 1 growth 3.87% · Ending margin 27.03% · Discount rate 6.05%

Assumption scenarios, not statistical confidence intervals.

Method, dates & sources

Estimated from future revenue, operating margins, and the investment needed to support them.

Price timestamp: Sep 17, 2026, 7:59 PM UTC
Financial statement period: TTM ending 2026-06-30
Data refreshed: Sep 18, 2026, 5:33 AM UTC · provider

Why this method?

There is not a stable run of positive FCFF to anchor a direct cash-flow CAGR, so the model should start from revenue and margin assumptions instead.

Is FCFF positive and has it been for 3+ consecutive years? Latest FCFF is not positive.

Price vs Fundamentals

Why The Stock Is Moving

Mixed / unclearLow confidence

1Y Price: 3.24%Revenue (TTM): 12.25%FCF (TTM): -65.18%P/E: 44th pct

What changed

The stock rose 3.24% over the last year. Revenue grew 12.25% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 27.04% to 27.03%. Free cash flow declined 65.18% over the trailing twelve months.

What the market seems to be pricing

The stock has moved higher with no clear directional signal from operating metrics. The operating data does not yet tell a clear story — the move may reflect sentiment, sector rotation, or macro factors rather than company-specific earnings power.

What would invalidate this read

Operating margin currently stands at 27.03%. A decisive move in revenue — currently up 12.25% — would be the clearest signal to resolve the ambiguity.

Performance

Return analysis

Company profile

NiSource Inc., an energy holding company, operates as a regulated natural gas and electric utility company in the United States.

CEOLloyd Yates

SectorUtilities

IndustryRegulated Gas

Employees7,703

IPO dateFeb 21, 1973

https://www.nisource.com

Market multiples

Forward P/E—

EV/EBITDA11.77

Enterprise value$35.85B

Stock splits

Jul 2, 2015↑ Forward

Every 200 shares became 509

+155%

Feb 23, 1998↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

Profitability & growth

Revenue growth4.63%

Gross margin (FY2025)50.4%▼1.1ppvs FY2024

Operating margin (FY2025)27.58%▲0.9ppvs FY2024

ROE9.81%▼0.4ppvs FY2025

Analyst consensus

RatingBuy

Target price$50.71▲24.00%

Buy

Hold

Sell

Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.

Earnings

Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.

Next report

Nov 4, 2026

Q4 FY26 · EPS est $0.20 · Revenue est $1.35B

View

Dividends

$1.20/shareQuarterlyDividend Achiever · 13yrAt Risk

NI pays a dividend with a 2.93% declared yield, 13 consecutive years of growth, growing at 6.4% annually, covered -0.8× by free cash flow.

Declared Yield

2.93%

Annual Div / Share

$1.20

5yr CAGR

+6.4%

Doubles every ~11.2yr

Payout Ratio

61.82%

At Risk

Dividend Growth Rate

3yr CAGR

+6.27%

5yr CAGR

+6.4%

10yr CAGR

+6.49%

Dividend Safety

2/10At Risk

Dividend History

Annualized dividend cycles per share

YearAnnual DivYoY

2026$1.20+7.1%

2025$1.12+5.7%

2024$1.06+6.0%

2023$1.00+6.4%

2022$0.94+6.8%

2021$0.88+4.8%

2020$0.84+5.0%

Income Projection

Invest

USD

Growth rate:

Reinvest dividends

Today

$29/yr

$2/mo

In 5 yrs

$40/yr+36%

$3/mo

In 10 yrs

$55/yr+86%

$5/mo

Today	In 5 yrs	In 10 yrs
$29/yr $2/mo	$40/yr+36% $3/mo	$55/yr+86% $5/mo

Yield-on-cost grows from 2.93% → 5.46% over 10yr

Analysis

Dividend Strengths

Dividend Achiever

NI has raised its dividend for 13 consecutive years — qualifying as a Dividend Achiever, demonstrating long-term commitment to shareholder income.

Strong dividend growth rate

The 5-year CAGR of 6.4% meaningfully outpaces inflation, compounding real income growth for long-term holders.

Risks to Watch

Dividend exceeds free cash flow

Free cash flow covers only -0.79× the dividend. The company is paying out more than it generates in cash, which is unsustainable without borrowing or asset sales.

NYSE · NI

NiSource Inc

Utilities · Regulated Gas

$40.90▲ 0.58% ($0.23)at close

After hours$40.91▲ 0.04%7:34 PM ET

52-week

$39.33$49.21

Market cap

What the market price implies · Reverse DCF

To support a price of $40.90, this model requires revenue to grow by 4.47%/yr over the next 10 years, compounded annually.

Historical revenue grew by 7.9%/yr over the past 4 years. The required annual growth rate is 3.43 percentage points lower.

Selected forecast · Base scenario

2.48%/yr · actual 10-year annualized revenue growth

Year 1 growth: 3.87%

Market-implied · Base operating assumptions + edited margins

4.47%/yr · flat 10-year annualized revenue growth

Valuation

Recommended · Revenue & margin DCF

Price used

$40.90

Estimated value / share

$28.77

Base scenario

This estimate is 29.66% below the price used.

USD · TTM ending 2026-06-30

Latest quarterly growth differs materially from the latest annual pace. It remains an observed growth input; review whether acceleration or a change in the business explains it.

Year 1 growth 3.87% · Ending margin 27.03% · Discount rate 6.05%

Assumption scenarios, not statistical confidence intervals.

Method, dates & sources

Estimated from future revenue, operating margins, and the investment needed to support them.

Price timestamp: Sep 17, 2026, 7:59 PM UTC
Financial statement period: TTM ending 2026-06-30
Data refreshed: Sep 18, 2026, 5:33 AM UTC · provider

Why this method?

There is not a stable run of positive FCFF to anchor a direct cash-flow CAGR, so the model should start from revenue and margin assumptions instead.

Is FCFF positive and has it been for 3+ consecutive years? Latest FCFF is not positive.

Price vs Fundamentals

Why The Stock Is Moving

Mixed / unclearLow confidence

1Y Price: 3.24%Revenue (TTM): 12.25%FCF (TTM): -65.18%P/E: 44th pct

What changed

What the market seems to be pricing

What would invalidate this read

Operating margin currently stands at 27.03%. A decisive move in revenue — currently up 12.25% — would be the clearest signal to resolve the ambiguity.

Performance

Return analysis

Company profile

NiSource Inc., an energy holding company, operates as a regulated natural gas and electric utility company in the United States.

CEOLloyd Yates

SectorUtilities

IndustryRegulated Gas

Employees7,703

IPO dateFeb 21, 1973

https://www.nisource.com

Market multiples

Forward P/E—

EV/EBITDA11.77

Enterprise value$35.85B

Stock splits

Jul 2, 2015↑ Forward

Every 200 shares became 509

+155%

Feb 23, 1998↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

Profitability & growth

Revenue growth4.63%

Gross margin (FY2025)50.4%▼1.1ppvs FY2024

Operating margin (FY2025)27.58%▲0.9ppvs FY2024

ROE9.81%▼0.4ppvs FY2025

Analyst consensus

RatingBuy

Target price$50.71▲24.00%

Buy

Hold

Sell

Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.

Earnings

Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.

Next report

Nov 4, 2026

Q4 FY26 · EPS est $0.20 · Revenue est $1.35B

View

Dividends

$1.20/shareQuarterlyDividend Achiever · 13yrAt Risk

NI pays a dividend with a 2.93% declared yield, 13 consecutive years of growth, growing at 6.4% annually, covered -0.8× by free cash flow.

Declared Yield

2.93%

Annual Div / Share

$1.20

5yr CAGR

+6.4%

Doubles every ~11.2yr

Payout Ratio

61.82%

At Risk

Dividend Growth Rate

3yr CAGR

+6.27%

5yr CAGR

+6.4%

10yr CAGR

+6.49%

Dividend Safety

2/10At Risk

Dividend History

Annualized dividend cycles per share

YearAnnual DivYoY

2026$1.20+7.1%

2025$1.12+5.7%

2024$1.06+6.0%

2023$1.00+6.4%

2022$0.94+6.8%

2021$0.88+4.8%

2020$0.84+5.0%

Income Projection

Invest

USD

Growth rate:

Reinvest dividends

Today

$29/yr

$2/mo

In 5 yrs

$40/yr+36%

$3/mo

In 10 yrs

$55/yr+86%

$5/mo

Today	In 5 yrs	In 10 yrs
$29/yr $2/mo	$40/yr+36% $3/mo	$55/yr+86% $5/mo

Yield-on-cost grows from 2.93% → 5.46% over 10yr

Analysis

Dividend Strengths

Dividend Achiever

NI has raised its dividend for 13 consecutive years — qualifying as a Dividend Achiever, demonstrating long-term commitment to shareholder income.

Strong dividend growth rate

The 5-year CAGR of 6.4% meaningfully outpaces inflation, compounding real income growth for long-term holders.

Risks to Watch

Dividend exceeds free cash flow

Free cash flow covers only -0.79× the dividend. The company is paying out more than it generates in cash, which is unsustainable without borrowing or asset sales.