NYSE · NOC
Northrop Grumman Corporation
Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
$482.00▼ 0.31% ($1.48)at close
After hours$482.56▲ 0.12%7:40 PM ET
Valuation
Cash-flow DCF
Verdict: fairly priced. Price above Base.
The price needs 12.9% free cash flow growth a year for 5 years. Our scenarios assume −11.6–18.4%.
That's 3.9× its past 10-year pace.
Value per share
Base case
$289.51
Price used $482.00 is 1.7× this
USD · TTM ending Jun 30, 2026 · Price Oct 1, 8:00 PM UTC
FCFF base normalized by replacing latest capex with the company's trailing median capex-to-revenue ratio.
3 more notes
Historical FCFF CAGR and the default growth rates are taken from the raw historical series. The valuation base is normalized for the current-period DCF.
Market beta (-0.11) is below the minimum default of 0.5 — short lookback windows can understate systematic risk. Beta floored at 0.5 for default assumptions; adjust manually if needed.
Reported total debt includes capitalised leases (~11% of the total). They are excluded from net debt and from the WACC weights because rent is already charged inside operating income. The Net Debt shown here is therefore lower than the balance-sheet figure elsewhere on this page.
Free cash flow each value needs
Free cash flow today $2.1B. The price needs $4.6B by 2036. Base case: $2.9B. At its recent pace: $2.9B. Bear to Bull: $1.3B to $7.9B.
Free cash flow today $2.1B. The price needs $4.6B by 2036. Base case: $2.9B. At its recent pace: $2.9B. Bear to Bull: $1.3B to $7.9B.
Free cash flow in 2036
today $2.1B
+$1.6Bmore than the Base case · 1.6×
Value per share · Base case
$289.51
Price $482.00
1.7× this
- Stage 1 growth, yrs 1–5
- 3.4%
- Stage 2 growth, yrs 6–10
- 3.5%
- Discount rate
- 7.2%
FCFF base normalized by replacing latest capex with the company's trailing median capex-to-revenue ratio.
3 more notes
Historical FCFF CAGR and the default growth rates are taken from the raw historical series. The valuation base is normalized for the current-period DCF.
Market beta (-0.11) is below the minimum default of 0.5 — short lookback windows can understate systematic risk. Beta floored at 0.5 for default assumptions; adjust manually if needed.
Reported total debt includes capitalised leases (~11% of the total). They are excluded from net debt and from the WACC weights because rent is already charged inside operating income. The Net Debt shown here is therefore lower than the balance-sheet figure elsewhere on this page.
USD · TTM ending Jun 30, 2026 · Price Oct 1, 8:00 PM UTC
What each scenario assumes. Click a column to start from it.
Price vs Fundamentals
Why The Stock Is Moving
Note: The most recent financial data is over 3 months old. Metrics shown may not reflect the latest reporting period.
What changed
The stock fell 20.39% over the last year. Revenue grew 5.9% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 10.39% to 10.18%. Free cash flow grew 178.75% over the trailing twelve months.
What the market seems to be pricing
Visible fundamentals weakened far less than the stock price, and the shares now sit around the 16th percentile of their historical P/FCF range. That looks more like a rerating of the multiple than a collapse in the business.
What would invalidate this read
This read changes if operating margin (currently 10.18%) continues to decline, or if revenue growth turns negative. The bull case requires the business to hold its current trajectory.
Return analysis
Company profile
Northrop Grumman Corporation is a leading global player in the aerospace and defense sectors.
Market multiples
Stock splits
Every 1807 shares became 2000
Every 1 shares became 2
Every 1 shares became 3
Every 1 shares became 2
Every 1000 shares became 1499
Profitability & growth
Analyst consensus
20
Buy
14
Hold
1
Sell
Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.
Earnings
Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.
Next report
Oct 20, 2026
Q3 FY26 · EPS est $7.17 · Revenue est $11.13B
View
Institutional Sentiment
Northrop Grumman Corporation · NOC
From Form 13F filings (managers with $100M+). Filings land up to 45 days after quarter end — read this as positioning context, not live fund flow.