NYSE · NRG

NRG Energy, Inc.

Utilities · Independent Power Producers

$103.66▼ 2.42% ($2.57)at close

After hours$103.89▲ 0.22%7:55 PM ET

52-week

$103.49$189.96

What the market price implies · Reverse DCF

To support a price of $103.66, this model requires revenue to grow by 5.23%/yr over the next 10 years, compounded annually.

Historical revenue grew by 3.28%/yr over the past 4 years. The required annual growth rate is 1.95 percentage points higher.

Selected forecast · Base scenario

13.8%/yr · actual 10-year annualized revenue growth

Year 1 growth: 21.67%

Market-implied · Base operating assumptions + edited margins

5.23%/yr · flat 10-year annualized revenue growth

Reverse DCF solves revenue growth itself using Base operating assumptions and your edited margins. Changing forecast growth alone does not change the implied rate. This is a model-implied requirement, not an analyst forecast.

Valuation

Recommended · Revenue & margin DCF

Price used

$103.66

Estimated value / share

$317.35

Base scenario

This estimate is 206.14% above the price used.

USD · TTM ending 2026-06-30

Latest quarterly growth differs materially from the latest annual pace. It remains an observed growth input; review whether acceleration or a change in the business explains it.

This estimate is at least 3× the price used. Review the growth, margin and investment assumptions behind the gap.

Year 1 growth 21.67% · Ending margin 5.38% · Discount rate 8.08%

Assumption scenarios, not statistical confidence intervals.

Method, dates & sources

Estimated from future revenue, operating margins, and the investment needed to support them.

Price timestamp: Sep 18, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC
Financial statement period: TTM ending 2026-06-30
Data refreshed: Sep 19, 2026, 5:29 AM UTC · provider

Why this method?

FCFF is positive, but it is still too unstable and too short-lived to anchor even a normalized FCFF DCF. Use revenue and margin assumptions instead of compounding current FCFF.

Is FCFF positive and has it been for 3+ consecutive years? 3 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Is FCFF stable (not swinging >30% year to year)? The largest recent FCFF swing is 11872.7%. Latest capex is 2.7x the prior median, which points to a capex supercycle that should be normalized first.

Do you have 5+ years of positive FCFF history? Only 3 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Price vs Fundamentals

Why The Stock Is Moving

Likely multiple compressionModerate confidence

1Y Price: -35.45%Revenue (TTM): 25.14%FCF (TTM): -75.04%P/FCF: 91st pct

What changed

The stock fell 35.45% over the last year. Revenue grew 25.14% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 4.49% to 5.38%. Free cash flow declined 75.04% over the trailing twelve months.

What the market seems to be pricing

Visible fundamentals weakened far less than the stock price. The market appears to be discounting durability, risk, or trust rather than just the latest reported numbers.

What would invalidate this read

This read changes if operating margin (currently 5.38%) continues to decline, or if revenue growth turns negative. The bull case requires the business to hold its current trajectory.

Performance

Return analysis

Company profile

NRG Energy, Inc., together with its affiliated entities, operates as a comprehensive power utility spanning the United States.

CEORobert J. Gaudette

SectorUtilities

IndustryIndependent Power Producers

Employees16,702

IPO dateDec 2, 2003

https://www.nrg.com

Market multiples

Forward P/E—

EV/EBITDA11.32

Enterprise value$43.08B

Stock splits

Jun 1, 2007↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

Profitability & growth

Revenue growth64.12%

Gross margin (FY2025)21.85%▲0.4ppvs FY2024

Operating margin (FY2025)6.02%▼2.6ppvs FY2024

ROE23.77%▼17.8ppvs FY2025

Analyst consensus

RatingBuy

Target price$202.90▲95.74%

Buy

Hold

Sell

Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.

Earnings

Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.

Next report

Nov 5, 2026

Q4 FY26 · EPS est $3.16 · Revenue est $9.33B

View

Dividends

$1.87/shareQuarterly9yr growth streakSafe

NRG pays a dividend with a 1.8% dividend yield, 9 consecutive years of growth, growing at 7.9% annually, covered 1.9× by free cash flow.

Dividend Yield

1.8%

Annual Div / Share

$1.87

5yr CAGR

+7.9%

Doubles every ~9.1yr

Payout Ratio

51.71%

Safe

Dividend Growth Rate

3yr CAGR

+7.95%

5yr CAGR

+7.9%

10yr CAGR

+18.21%

Dividend Safety

8/10Safe

Dividend History

Annualized dividend cycles per share

YearAnnual DivYoY

2026$1.87+8.0%

2025$1.73+8.0%

2024$1.60+7.9%

2023$1.48+7.8%

2022$1.38+7.8%

2021$1.28+37.1%

2020$0.93+675.0%

Income Projection

Invest

USD

Growth rate:

Reinvest dividends

Today

$18/yr

$1/mo

In 5 yrs

$26/yr+46%

$2/mo

In 10 yrs

$38/yr+114%

$3/mo

Today	In 5 yrs	In 10 yrs
$18/yr $1/mo	$26/yr+46% $2/mo	$38/yr+114% $3/mo

Yield-on-cost grows from 1.8% → 3.85% over 10yr

Analysis

Dividend Strengths

Well-covered by free cash flow

The dividend is covered 1.9× by free cash flow, indicating the company generates sufficient cash to sustain and potentially grow the payout without straining its finances.

Strong dividend growth rate

The 5-year CAGR of 7.9% meaningfully outpaces inflation, compounding real income growth for long-term holders.

Risks to Watch

No strong risk signal stands out from the latest period pair.

NYSE · NRG

NRG Energy, Inc.

Utilities · Independent Power Producers

$103.66▼ 2.42% ($2.57)at close

After hours$103.89▲ 0.22%7:55 PM ET

52-week

$103.49$189.96

What the market price implies · Reverse DCF

To support a price of $103.66, this model requires revenue to grow by 5.23%/yr over the next 10 years, compounded annually.

Historical revenue grew by 3.28%/yr over the past 4 years. The required annual growth rate is 1.95 percentage points higher.

Selected forecast · Base scenario

13.8%/yr · actual 10-year annualized revenue growth

Year 1 growth: 21.67%

Market-implied · Base operating assumptions + edited margins

5.23%/yr · flat 10-year annualized revenue growth

Valuation

Recommended · Revenue & margin DCF

Price used

$103.66

Estimated value / share

$317.35

Base scenario

This estimate is 206.14% above the price used.

USD · TTM ending 2026-06-30

Latest quarterly growth differs materially from the latest annual pace. It remains an observed growth input; review whether acceleration or a change in the business explains it.

This estimate is at least 3× the price used. Review the growth, margin and investment assumptions behind the gap.

Year 1 growth 21.67% · Ending margin 5.38% · Discount rate 8.08%

Assumption scenarios, not statistical confidence intervals.

Method, dates & sources

Estimated from future revenue, operating margins, and the investment needed to support them.

Price timestamp: Sep 18, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC
Financial statement period: TTM ending 2026-06-30
Data refreshed: Sep 19, 2026, 5:29 AM UTC · provider

Why this method?

FCFF is positive, but it is still too unstable and too short-lived to anchor even a normalized FCFF DCF. Use revenue and margin assumptions instead of compounding current FCFF.

Is FCFF positive and has it been for 3+ consecutive years? 3 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Is FCFF stable (not swinging >30% year to year)? The largest recent FCFF swing is 11872.7%. Latest capex is 2.7x the prior median, which points to a capex supercycle that should be normalized first.

Do you have 5+ years of positive FCFF history? Only 3 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Price vs Fundamentals

Why The Stock Is Moving

Likely multiple compressionModerate confidence

1Y Price: -35.45%Revenue (TTM): 25.14%FCF (TTM): -75.04%P/FCF: 91st pct

What changed

What the market seems to be pricing

Visible fundamentals weakened far less than the stock price. The market appears to be discounting durability, risk, or trust rather than just the latest reported numbers.

What would invalidate this read

This read changes if operating margin (currently 5.38%) continues to decline, or if revenue growth turns negative. The bull case requires the business to hold its current trajectory.

Performance

Return analysis

Company profile

NRG Energy, Inc., together with its affiliated entities, operates as a comprehensive power utility spanning the United States.

CEORobert J. Gaudette

SectorUtilities

IndustryIndependent Power Producers

Employees16,702

IPO dateDec 2, 2003

https://www.nrg.com

Market multiples

Forward P/E—

EV/EBITDA11.32

Enterprise value$43.08B

Stock splits

Jun 1, 2007↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

Profitability & growth

Revenue growth64.12%

Gross margin (FY2025)21.85%▲0.4ppvs FY2024

Operating margin (FY2025)6.02%▼2.6ppvs FY2024

ROE23.77%▼17.8ppvs FY2025

Analyst consensus

RatingBuy

Target price$202.90▲95.74%

Buy

Hold

Sell

Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.

Earnings

Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.

Next report

Nov 5, 2026

Q4 FY26 · EPS est $3.16 · Revenue est $9.33B

View

Dividends

$1.87/shareQuarterly9yr growth streakSafe

NRG pays a dividend with a 1.8% dividend yield, 9 consecutive years of growth, growing at 7.9% annually, covered 1.9× by free cash flow.

Dividend Yield

1.8%

Annual Div / Share

$1.87

5yr CAGR

+7.9%

Doubles every ~9.1yr

Payout Ratio

51.71%

Safe

Dividend Growth Rate

3yr CAGR

+7.95%

5yr CAGR

+7.9%

10yr CAGR

+18.21%

Dividend Safety

8/10Safe

Dividend History

Annualized dividend cycles per share

YearAnnual DivYoY

2026$1.87+8.0%

2025$1.73+8.0%

2024$1.60+7.9%

2023$1.48+7.8%

2022$1.38+7.8%

2021$1.28+37.1%

2020$0.93+675.0%

Income Projection

Invest

USD

Growth rate:

Reinvest dividends

Today

$18/yr

$1/mo

In 5 yrs

$26/yr+46%

$2/mo

In 10 yrs

$38/yr+114%

$3/mo

Today	In 5 yrs	In 10 yrs
$18/yr $1/mo	$26/yr+46% $2/mo	$38/yr+114% $3/mo

Yield-on-cost grows from 1.8% → 3.85% over 10yr

Analysis

Dividend Strengths

Well-covered by free cash flow

The dividend is covered 1.9× by free cash flow, indicating the company generates sufficient cash to sustain and potentially grow the payout without straining its finances.

Strong dividend growth rate

The 5-year CAGR of 7.9% meaningfully outpaces inflation, compounding real income growth for long-term holders.

Risks to Watch

No strong risk signal stands out from the latest period pair.