Reading the tape
NASDAQ: NTRS
Northern Trust Corporation
Financial Services · Asset Management
Market Cap
$29.68B
52w High
$173.19
52w Low
$103.54
P/E
15.91
Volume
685.79K
Outstanding Shares
185.05M
Price vs Fundamentals
Why The Stock Is Moving
Momentum disconnected from fundamentalsHigh confidence
1Y Price: 59.74%Revenue (TTM): -7.91%FCF (TTM): -36.93%P/FCF: 68th pct
What changed
The stock rose 59.74% over the last year. Revenue declined 7.91% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 18.27% to 17.23%. Free cash flow declined 36.93% over the trailing twelve months.
What the market seems to be pricing
The stock is rising despite deteriorating fundamentals and now sits at the 68th percentile of its historical P/FCF range. This is a momentum-driven move — the market may be front-running a recovery that has not yet appeared in reported numbers.
What would invalidate this read
Operating margin (currently 17.23%) would need to stabilize or improve to justify the move. Revenue is declining 7.91% — a trend reversal in the next report would be the key signal to watch. This read is wrong if the next period shows operating metrics turning the corner. At that point the price would be anticipating real improvement rather than running ahead of it.
Company profile
Northern Trust Corporation, a financial holding company, provides wealth management, asset servicing, asset management, and banking solutions for corporations, institutions, families, and individuals worldwide.
CEOMichael Gerard O'Grady
SectorFinancial Services
IndustryAsset Management
Employees23,400
IPO dateMar 17, 1980
Valuation
Forward P/E—
EV/EBITDA-5.94
Enterprise value-$19.09B
Price / Book2.29
Stock splits
Dec 10, 1999↑ Forward
Every 1 shares became 2
Dec 10, 1996↑ Forward
Every 1 shares became 2
Dec 10, 1992↑ Forward
Every 2 shares became 3
May 1, 1990↑ Forward
Every 1 shares became 2
May 1, 1986↑ Forward
Every 1 shares became 3
Profitability & growth
Standard profitability metrics can be misleading for financial/insurance companies. GAAP requires unrealized investment gains/losses in net income (affecting ROE), and margins are blended across diverse business segments.
Revenue growth7.77%
Gross margin57.34%▲8.24%vs FY2024
Operating margin17.23%▼2.67%vs FY2024
ROE13.4%▼15.60%vs FY2024
Analyst consensus
RatingHold
Target price$153.75▼4.15%
13
Buy
17
Hold
5
Sell
Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.
Earnings
Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.
Next report
Jul 22, 2026
Q3 FY26 · EPS est $2.60 · Revenue est $2.21B
View
Dividends
$3.20/shareQuarterlyDividend Aristocrat · 34yrEx-div Jun 5, 2026 · in 26dSafeNTRS pays a dividend with a 1.99% declared yield, 34 consecutive years of growth, growing at 2.71% annually, covered 8.6× by free cash flow.
Declared Yield
1.99%
Annual Div / Share
$3.20
TTM $3.90
5yr CAGR
+2.71%
Doubles every ~26.0yr
Payout Ratio
33.99%
Safe
Dividend Growth Rate
3yr CAGR
+2.17%
5yr CAGR
+2.71%
10yr CAGR
+8.31%
Dividend Safety
10/10Safe
Dividend History
Annualized dividend cycles per share
YearAnnual DivYoY
2026$3.20+6.7%
2025$3.00+0.0%
2024$3.00+0.0%
2023$3.00+7.1%
2022$2.80+0.0%
2021$2.80+0.0%
2020$2.80+21.7%
Income Projection
Invest
$
Growth rate:
Reinvest dividends
Today
$20/yr
$2/mo
In 5 yrs
$23/yr+14%
$2/mo
In 10 yrs
$26/yr+31%
$2/mo
| Today | In 5 yrs | In 10 yrs |
|---|---|---|
$20/yr $2/mo | $23/yr+14% $2/mo | $26/yr+31% $2/mo |
Yield-on-cost grows from 1.99% → 2.61% over 10yr
Analysis
Dividend Strengths
Dividend Aristocrat
NTRS has raised its dividend for 34 consecutive years — qualifying as a Dividend Aristocrat, demonstrating long-term commitment to shareholder income.
Well-covered by free cash flow
The dividend is covered 8.6× by free cash flow, indicating the company generates sufficient cash to sustain and potentially grow the payout without straining its finances.
Risks to Watch
No strong risk signal stands out from the latest period pair.