NASDAQ · NVDA

NVIDIA Corporation

Technology · Semiconductors

$218.36▼ 2.37% ($5.31)at close

After hours$217.76▼ 0.27%7:59 PM ET

52-week

$164.27$236.54

Market cap

What the market price implies · Reverse DCF

To support a price of $218.36, this model requires revenue to grow by 39.71%/yr over the next 10 years, compounded annually.

Historical revenue grew by 68.3%/yr over the past 4 years. The required annual growth rate is 28.59 percentage points lower.

Selected forecast · Base scenario

19.61%/yr · actual 10-year annualized revenue growth

Year 1 growth: 40%

Market-implied · Base operating assumptions + edited margins

39.71%/yr · flat 10-year annualized revenue growth

Reverse DCF solves revenue growth itself using Base operating assumptions and your edited margins. Changing forecast growth alone does not change the implied rate. This is a model-implied requirement, not an analyst forecast.

Valuation

Recommended · Revenue & margin DCF

Price used

$218.36

Estimated value / share

$71.59

Base scenario

This estimate is 67.21% below the price used.

USD · TTM ending 2026-07-26

Latest quarterly growth differs materially from the latest annual pace. It remains an observed growth input; review whether acceleration or a change in the business explains it.

Year 1 growth 40% · Ending margin 30% · Discount rate 17.05%

Assumption scenarios, not statistical confidence intervals.

Method, dates & sources

Estimated from future revenue, operating margins, and the investment needed to support them.

Price timestamp: Sep 10, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC
Financial statement period: TTM ending 2026-07-26
Data refreshed: Sep 10, 2026, 9:09 PM UTC · cache

Why this method?

FCFF is positive, but the series is too unstable to anchor a direct cash-flow CAGR and the business still fails the steady-state comparability checks. Use a revenue-and-margin transition model instead of normalizing and compounding current FCFF.

Is FCFF positive and has it been for 3+ consecutive years? 17 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Is FCFF stable (not swinging >30% year to year)? The largest recent FCFF swing is 2959.9%. Latest capex is 4.2x the prior median, which points to a capex supercycle that should be normalized first.

Do you have 5+ years of positive FCFF history? 17 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Is the business model structurally similar to what it should be in 10 years? Revenue is still growing 105.9%, above the 15.0% maturity threshold, so a steady-state FCFF model would lean too heavily on a business still scaling.

Price vs Fundamentals

Why The Stock Is Moving

Fundamentals are supporting the moveHigh confidence

1Y Price: 23.14%Revenue (TTM): 83.38%FCF (TTM): 76.34%P/FCF: 25th pct

What changed

The stock rose 23.14% over the last year. Revenue grew 83.38% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 58.09% to 65.21%. Free cash flow grew 76.34% over the trailing twelve months.

What the market seems to be pricing

The stock move broadly lines up with stronger business momentum, and the shares are still only around the 25th percentile of their historical P/FCF range.

What would invalidate this read

Operating margin is at 65.21%. Revenue grew 83.38% — this thesis depends on that trajectory holding. If revenue growth, margins, or free cash flow roll over while the stock keeps climbing, more of the move would be coming from multiple expansion than business progress.

Performance

Return analysis

Company profile

NVIDIA Corporation stands as a prominent provider of advanced graphics, computational, and networking solutions, operating across the United States, Taiwan, China, and numerous international markets.

CEOJensen Huang

SectorTechnology

IndustrySemiconductors

Employees42,000

IPO dateJan 22, 1999

https://www.nvidia.com

Market multiples

Forward P/E—

EV/EBITDA31.43

Enterprise value$4.54T

Stock splits

Jun 10, 2024↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 10

+900%

Jul 20, 2021↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 4

+300%

Sep 11, 2007↑ Forward

Every 2 shares became 3

+50%

Apr 7, 2006↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

Sep 12, 2001↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

Jun 27, 2000↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

Profitability & growth

Revenue growth105.85%

Gross margin74.67%▼3.9ppvs FY2025

Operating margin65.21%▼2.0ppvs FY2025

ROE117.21%▲15.7ppvs FY2026

Analyst consensus

RatingBuy

Target price$343.66▲57.38%

Buy

Hold

Sell

Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.

Earnings

Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.

Next report

Nov 18, 2026

Q4 FY26 · EPS est $2.47 · Revenue est $108.67B

View

Dividends

$0.52/shareQuarterlyDividend Achiever · 13yrEx-div Sep 10, 2026 · in 0dSafe

NVDA pays a dividend with a 0.24% declared yield, 13 consecutive years of growth, growing at 100.62% annually, covered 99.3× by free cash flow.

Declared Yield

0.24%

Annual Div / Share

$0.52

5yr CAGR

+100.62%

Doubles every ~1.0yr

Payout Ratio

3.51%

Safe

Dividend Growth Rate

3yr CAGR

+219.13%

5yr CAGR

+100.62%

10yr CAGR

+46.4%

Dividend Safety

10/10Safe

Dividend History

Annualized dividend cycles per share

YearAnnual DivYoY

2026$0.52+1200.0%

2025$0.04+42.9%

2024$0.03+75.0%

2023$0.02+0.0%

2022$0.02+0.0%

2021$0.02+0.0%

2020$0.02+0.0%

Income Projection

Invest

Growth rate:

Reinvest dividends

Today

$2/yr

$0/mo

In 5 yrs

$4/yr+76%

$0/mo

In 10 yrs

$7/yr+211%

$1/mo

Today	In 5 yrs	In 10 yrs
$2/yr $0/mo	$4/yr+76% $0/mo	$7/yr+211% $1/mo

Long-range projections use a capped 12% annual growth assumption.

Yield-on-cost grows from 0.24% → 0.74% over 10yr

Analysis

Dividend Strengths

Dividend Achiever

NVDA has raised its dividend for 13 consecutive years — qualifying as a Dividend Achiever, demonstrating long-term commitment to shareholder income.

Well-covered by free cash flow

The dividend is covered 99.3× by free cash flow, indicating the company generates sufficient cash to sustain and potentially grow the payout without straining its finances.

Strong dividend growth rate

The 5-year CAGR of 100.62% meaningfully outpaces inflation, compounding real income growth for long-term holders.

Risks to Watch

No strong risk signal stands out from the latest period pair.

NASDAQ · NVDA

NVIDIA Corporation

Technology · Semiconductors

$218.36▼ 2.37% ($5.31)at close

After hours$217.76▼ 0.27%7:59 PM ET

52-week

$164.27$236.54

Market cap

What the market price implies · Reverse DCF

To support a price of $218.36, this model requires revenue to grow by 39.71%/yr over the next 10 years, compounded annually.

Historical revenue grew by 68.3%/yr over the past 4 years. The required annual growth rate is 28.59 percentage points lower.

Selected forecast · Base scenario

19.61%/yr · actual 10-year annualized revenue growth

Year 1 growth: 40%

Market-implied · Base operating assumptions + edited margins

39.71%/yr · flat 10-year annualized revenue growth

Valuation

Recommended · Revenue & margin DCF

Price used

$218.36

Estimated value / share

$71.59

Base scenario

This estimate is 67.21% below the price used.

USD · TTM ending 2026-07-26

Latest quarterly growth differs materially from the latest annual pace. It remains an observed growth input; review whether acceleration or a change in the business explains it.

Year 1 growth 40% · Ending margin 30% · Discount rate 17.05%

Assumption scenarios, not statistical confidence intervals.

Method, dates & sources

Estimated from future revenue, operating margins, and the investment needed to support them.

Price timestamp: Sep 10, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC
Financial statement period: TTM ending 2026-07-26
Data refreshed: Sep 10, 2026, 9:09 PM UTC · cache

Why this method?

Is FCFF positive and has it been for 3+ consecutive years? 17 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Is FCFF stable (not swinging >30% year to year)? The largest recent FCFF swing is 2959.9%. Latest capex is 4.2x the prior median, which points to a capex supercycle that should be normalized first.

Do you have 5+ years of positive FCFF history? 17 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Price vs Fundamentals

Why The Stock Is Moving

Fundamentals are supporting the moveHigh confidence

1Y Price: 23.14%Revenue (TTM): 83.38%FCF (TTM): 76.34%P/FCF: 25th pct

What changed

What the market seems to be pricing

The stock move broadly lines up with stronger business momentum, and the shares are still only around the 25th percentile of their historical P/FCF range.

What would invalidate this read

Performance

Return analysis

Company profile

NVIDIA Corporation stands as a prominent provider of advanced graphics, computational, and networking solutions, operating across the United States, Taiwan, China, and numerous international markets.

CEOJensen Huang

SectorTechnology

IndustrySemiconductors

Employees42,000

IPO dateJan 22, 1999

https://www.nvidia.com

Market multiples

Forward P/E—

EV/EBITDA31.43

Enterprise value$4.54T

Stock splits

Jun 10, 2024↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 10

+900%

Jul 20, 2021↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 4

+300%

Sep 11, 2007↑ Forward

Every 2 shares became 3

+50%

Apr 7, 2006↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

Sep 12, 2001↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

Jun 27, 2000↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

Profitability & growth

Revenue growth105.85%

Gross margin74.67%▼3.9ppvs FY2025

Operating margin65.21%▼2.0ppvs FY2025

ROE117.21%▲15.7ppvs FY2026

Analyst consensus

RatingBuy

Target price$343.66▲57.38%

Buy

Hold

Sell

Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.

Earnings

Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.

Next report

Nov 18, 2026

Q4 FY26 · EPS est $2.47 · Revenue est $108.67B

View

Dividends

$0.52/shareQuarterlyDividend Achiever · 13yrEx-div Sep 10, 2026 · in 0dSafe

NVDA pays a dividend with a 0.24% declared yield, 13 consecutive years of growth, growing at 100.62% annually, covered 99.3× by free cash flow.

Declared Yield

0.24%

Annual Div / Share

$0.52

5yr CAGR

+100.62%

Doubles every ~1.0yr

Payout Ratio

3.51%

Safe

Dividend Growth Rate

3yr CAGR

+219.13%

5yr CAGR

+100.62%

10yr CAGR

+46.4%

Dividend Safety

10/10Safe

Dividend History

Annualized dividend cycles per share

YearAnnual DivYoY

2026$0.52+1200.0%

2025$0.04+42.9%

2024$0.03+75.0%

2023$0.02+0.0%

2022$0.02+0.0%

2021$0.02+0.0%

2020$0.02+0.0%

Income Projection

Invest

Growth rate:

Reinvest dividends

Today

$2/yr

$0/mo

In 5 yrs

$4/yr+76%

$0/mo

In 10 yrs

$7/yr+211%

$1/mo

Today	In 5 yrs	In 10 yrs
$2/yr $0/mo	$4/yr+76% $0/mo	$7/yr+211% $1/mo

Long-range projections use a capped 12% annual growth assumption.

Yield-on-cost grows from 0.24% → 0.74% over 10yr

Analysis

Dividend Strengths

Dividend Achiever

NVDA has raised its dividend for 13 consecutive years — qualifying as a Dividend Achiever, demonstrating long-term commitment to shareholder income.

Well-covered by free cash flow

The dividend is covered 99.3× by free cash flow, indicating the company generates sufficient cash to sustain and potentially grow the payout without straining its finances.

Strong dividend growth rate

The 5-year CAGR of 100.62% meaningfully outpaces inflation, compounding real income growth for long-term holders.

Risks to Watch

No strong risk signal stands out from the latest period pair.