NYSE · NVR

NVR, Inc.

Consumer Cyclical · Residential Construction

$6,088.28▼ 1.60% ($99.02)at close

As of 4:01 PM ET

52-week

$5,501.01$8,563.79

Market cap

$16.43B

P/E

What the market price implies · Reverse DCF

To support a price of $6,088.28, this model requires Stage 1 FCFF to grow by 6.21%/yr over the next 5 years, compounded annually.

Historical FCFF grew by 15.93%/yr over the past 10 years. The required annual growth rate is 9.72 percentage points lower.

Selected forecast · Base scenario

15.93%/yr · Stage 1 default · years 1–5

Annual overrides take precedence over the Stage 1 default.

Market-implied · Other assumptions held fixed

6.21%/yr · Stage 1 · years 1–5

Stage 1 growth is solved while Stage 2 growth, terminal growth, discount inputs, and annual overrides remain fixed. This is a model-implied requirement, not an analyst forecast.

Valuation

Recommended · Cash-flow DCF

Price used

$6,088.28

Estimated value / share

$9,066.29

Base scenario

This estimate is 48.91% above the price used.

USD · TTM ending 2026-06-30

FCFF base normalized by replacing latest capex with the company's trailing median capex-to-revenue ratio.

CapEx normalization ceiling applied: historical capex ratio was set at smaller revenue scale. Capped at 2× TTM capex.

Historical FCFF CAGR and the default growth rates are taken from the raw historical series. The valuation base is normalized for the current-period DCF.

Reported total debt includes capitalised leases (~14% of the total). They are excluded from net debt and from the WACC weights because rent is already charged inside operating income. The Net Debt shown here is therefore lower than the balance-sheet figure elsewhere on this page.

Stage 1 15.93% · Stage 2 8.76% · Discount rate 9.6%

Assumption scenarios, not statistical confidence intervals.

Method, dates & sources

Estimated from future free cash flow, discounted to its value today.

Price timestamp: Sep 10, 2026, 8:01 PM UTC
Financial statement period: TTM ending 2026-06-30
Data refreshed: Sep 11, 2026, 12:28 PM UTC · provider

Why this method?

FCFF is positive, but the year-to-year swings are too large for a direct CAGR. Normalize the cash-flow base first, then run DCF.

Is FCFF positive and has it been for 3+ consecutive years? 14 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Is FCFF stable (not swinging >30% year to year)? The largest recent FCFF swing is 68.5%.

Price vs Fundamentals

Why The Stock Is Moving

Likely fundamental deteriorationHigh confidence

1Y Price: -26.96%Revenue (TTM): -10.6%FCF (TTM): -13.45%P/FCF: 48th pct

What changed

The stock fell 26.96% over the last year. Revenue declined 10.6% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 17.53% to 14.91%. Free cash flow declined 13.45% over the trailing twelve months.

What the market seems to be pricing

The market is reacting to weaker business momentum more than just compressing the valuation multiple. Even if the shares already screen cheap on P/FCF, investors are still discounting lower future earnings power.

What would invalidate this read

Operating margin stands at 14.91%. Revenue declined 10.6% — this read reverses if that trend stabilizes. Free cash flow fell 13.45% — a return toward positive territory would undermine the deterioration thesis. If margins and cash flow stabilize while the stock stays depressed, the gap shifts from fundamental damage toward pure multiple compression.

Performance

Return analysis

Company profile

NVR, Inc. functions as a prominent home construction company within the United States, organized into two primary divisions: homebuilding and mortgage banking.

CEOEugene James Bredow

SectorConsumer Cyclical

IndustryResidential Construction

Employees6,300

IPO dateJul 22, 1985

https://www.nvrinc.com

Market multiples

Forward P/E—

EV/EBITDA11.23

Enterprise value$20.39B

Stock splits

Oct 1, 1993↓ Reverse

Every 30 shares became 1

-97%

Profitability & growth

Revenue growth-10.64%

Gross margin22.24%▼2.6ppvs FY2024

Operating margin14.91%▼2.7ppvs FY2024

ROE31.54%▼1.6ppvs FY2025

Analyst consensus

RatingBuy

Target price$7,148.67▲17.42%

Buy

Hold

Sell

Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.

Earnings

Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.

Next report

Oct 28, 2026

Q4 FY26 · EPS est $104.43 · Revenue est $2.59B

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