NASDAQ · ODFL

Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.

Industrials · Trucking

$180.55▼ 0.77% ($1.41)at close

As of 4:00 PM ET

52-week

$126.01$252.03

Market cap

$37.55B

P/E

34.59

Volume

1.13M

Shares outstanding

207.97M

What the market price implies · Reverse DCF

To support a price of $180.55, this model requires revenue to grow by 34.02%/yr over the next 10 years, compounded annually.

Historical revenue grew by 1.12%/yr over the past 4 years. The required annual growth rate is 32.90 percentage points higher.

Selected forecast · Base scenario

1.29%/yr · actual 10-year annualized revenue growth

Year 1 growth: 2.01%

Market-implied · Base operating assumptions + edited margins

34.02%/yr · flat 10-year annualized revenue growth

Reverse DCF solves revenue growth itself using Base operating assumptions and your edited margins. Changing forecast growth alone does not change the implied rate. This is a model-implied requirement, not an analyst forecast.

Valuation

Recommended · Revenue & margin DCF

Price used

$180.55

Estimated value / share

$24.95

Base scenario

This estimate is 86.18% below the price used.

USD · TTM ending 2026-06-30

Latest quarterly growth differs materially from the latest annual pace. It remains an observed growth input; review whether acceleration or a change in the business explains it.

Year 1 growth 2.01% · Ending margin 16.7% · Discount rate 11.35%

Assumption scenarios, not statistical confidence intervals.

Method, dates & sources

Estimated from future revenue, operating margins, and the investment needed to support them.

Price timestamp: Sep 10, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC
Financial statement period: TTM ending 2026-06-30
Data refreshed: Sep 11, 2026, 4:29 AM UTC · provider

Why this method?

Historical FCFF compounded too quickly to treat that cash-flow CAGR as a sustainable forward anchor, so a revenue-and-margin transition model is more honest than extrapolating current FCFF.

Is FCFF positive and has it been for 3+ consecutive years? 13 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Is FCFF stable (not swinging >30% year to year)? The largest recent FCFF swing is 28.3%.

Do you have 5+ years of positive FCFF history? 13 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Is the business model structurally similar to what it should be in 10 years? 10.0-year FCFF CAGR of 44.2% exceeds the 20.0% sustainability threshold — compounding current cash flows at that historical rate would produce an unreliable forward projection.

Price vs Fundamentals

Why The Stock Is Moving

Fundamentals are supporting the moveModerate confidence

1Y Price: 23.4%Revenue (TTM): -0.64%FCF (TTM): 42.75%P/FCF: 25th pct

What changed

The stock rose 23.4% over the last year. Revenue declined 0.64% over the trailing twelve months. Operating margin moved from 25.39% to 25.84%. Free cash flow grew 42.75% over the trailing twelve months.

What the market seems to be pricing

The stock move broadly lines up with stronger business momentum, and the shares are still only around the 25th percentile of their historical P/FCF range.

What would invalidate this read

Operating margin is at 25.84%. Revenue declined 0.64% — this thesis depends on that trajectory holding. If revenue growth, margins, or free cash flow roll over while the stock keeps climbing, more of the move would be coming from multiple expansion than business progress.

Performance

Return analysis

Company profile

Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL) serves as a prominent less-than-truckload (LTL) freight carrier operating across the United States and North America.

CEOKevin Freeman

SectorIndustrials

IndustryTrucking

Employees20,591

IPO dateOct 24, 1991

https://www.odfl.com

Market multiples

Forward P/E—

EV/EBITDA19.08

Enterprise value$32.93B

Stock splits

Mar 28, 2024↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

Mar 25, 2020↑ Forward

Every 2 shares became 3

+50%

Sep 10, 2012↑ Forward

Every 2 shares became 3

+50%

Aug 24, 2010↑ Forward

Every 2 shares became 3

+50%

Dec 1, 2005↑ Forward

Every 2 shares became 3

+50%

May 21, 2004↑ Forward

Every 2 shares became 3

+50%

Jun 17, 2003↑ Forward

Every 2 shares became 3

+50%

Profitability & growth

Revenue growth10.39%

Gross margin31.7%▼2.6ppvs FY2024

Operating margin25.84%▼1.8ppvs FY2024

ROE24.82%▲0.9ppvs FY2025

Analyst consensus

RatingHold

Target price$234.86▲30.08%

Buy

Hold

Sell

Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.

Earnings

Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.

Next report

Oct 28, 2026

Q4 FY26 · EPS est $1.60 · Revenue est $1.55B

View

Dividends

$1.15/shareQuarterly8yr growth streakSafe

ODFL pays a dividend with a 0.64% dividend yield, 8 consecutive years of growth, growing at 25.12% annually, covered 4.1× by free cash flow.

Dividend Yield

0.64%

Annual Div / Share

$1.15

5yr CAGR

+25.12%

Doubles every ~3.1yr

Payout Ratio

21.83%

Safe

Dividend Growth Rate

3yr CAGR

+15.31%

5yr CAGR

+25.12%

Dividend Safety

10/10Safe

Dividend History

Annualized dividend cycles per share

YearAnnual DivYoY

2026$1.15+4.5%

2025$1.10+12.2%

2024$0.98+30.7%

2023$0.75+36.4%

2022$0.55+46.7%

2021$0.38+32.4%

2020$0.28+32.8%

Income Projection

Invest

Growth rate:

Reinvest dividends

Today

$6/yr

$1/mo

In 5 yrs

$11/yr+76%

$1/mo

In 10 yrs

$20/yr+211%

$2/mo

Today	In 5 yrs	In 10 yrs
$6/yr $1/mo	$11/yr+76% $1/mo	$20/yr+211% $2/mo

Long-range projections use a capped 12% annual growth assumption.

Yield-on-cost grows from 0.64% → 1.98% over 10yr

Analysis

Dividend Strengths

Well-covered by free cash flow

The dividend is covered 4.1× by free cash flow, indicating the company generates sufficient cash to sustain and potentially grow the payout without straining its finances.

Strong dividend growth rate

The 5-year CAGR of 25.12% meaningfully outpaces inflation, compounding real income growth for long-term holders.

Risks to Watch

No strong risk signal stands out from the latest period pair.

NASDAQ · ODFL

Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.

Industrials · Trucking

$180.55▼ 0.77% ($1.41)at close

As of 4:00 PM ET

52-week

$126.01$252.03

Market cap

$37.55B

P/E

34.59

Volume

1.13M

Shares outstanding

207.97M

What the market price implies · Reverse DCF

To support a price of $180.55, this model requires revenue to grow by 34.02%/yr over the next 10 years, compounded annually.

Historical revenue grew by 1.12%/yr over the past 4 years. The required annual growth rate is 32.90 percentage points higher.

Selected forecast · Base scenario

1.29%/yr · actual 10-year annualized revenue growth

Year 1 growth: 2.01%

Market-implied · Base operating assumptions + edited margins

34.02%/yr · flat 10-year annualized revenue growth

Valuation

Recommended · Revenue & margin DCF

Price used

$180.55

Estimated value / share

$24.95

Base scenario

This estimate is 86.18% below the price used.

USD · TTM ending 2026-06-30

Latest quarterly growth differs materially from the latest annual pace. It remains an observed growth input; review whether acceleration or a change in the business explains it.

Year 1 growth 2.01% · Ending margin 16.7% · Discount rate 11.35%

Assumption scenarios, not statistical confidence intervals.

Method, dates & sources

Estimated from future revenue, operating margins, and the investment needed to support them.

Price timestamp: Sep 10, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC
Financial statement period: TTM ending 2026-06-30
Data refreshed: Sep 11, 2026, 4:29 AM UTC · provider

Why this method?

Historical FCFF compounded too quickly to treat that cash-flow CAGR as a sustainable forward anchor, so a revenue-and-margin transition model is more honest than extrapolating current FCFF.

Is FCFF positive and has it been for 3+ consecutive years? 13 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Is FCFF stable (not swinging >30% year to year)? The largest recent FCFF swing is 28.3%.

Do you have 5+ years of positive FCFF history? 13 consecutive positive FCFF years are available.

Price vs Fundamentals

Why The Stock Is Moving

Fundamentals are supporting the moveModerate confidence

1Y Price: 23.4%Revenue (TTM): -0.64%FCF (TTM): 42.75%P/FCF: 25th pct

What changed

What the market seems to be pricing

The stock move broadly lines up with stronger business momentum, and the shares are still only around the 25th percentile of their historical P/FCF range.

What would invalidate this read

Performance

Return analysis

Company profile

Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL) serves as a prominent less-than-truckload (LTL) freight carrier operating across the United States and North America.

CEOKevin Freeman

SectorIndustrials

IndustryTrucking

Employees20,591

IPO dateOct 24, 1991

https://www.odfl.com

Market multiples

Forward P/E—

EV/EBITDA19.08

Enterprise value$32.93B

Stock splits

Mar 28, 2024↑ Forward

Every 1 shares became 2

+100%

Mar 25, 2020↑ Forward

Every 2 shares became 3

+50%

Sep 10, 2012↑ Forward

Every 2 shares became 3

+50%

Aug 24, 2010↑ Forward

Every 2 shares became 3

+50%

Dec 1, 2005↑ Forward

Every 2 shares became 3

+50%

May 21, 2004↑ Forward

Every 2 shares became 3

+50%

Jun 17, 2003↑ Forward

Every 2 shares became 3

+50%

Profitability & growth

Revenue growth10.39%

Gross margin31.7%▼2.6ppvs FY2024

Operating margin25.84%▼1.8ppvs FY2024

ROE24.82%▲0.9ppvs FY2025

Analyst consensus

RatingHold

Target price$234.86▲30.08%

Buy

Hold

Sell

Analyst ratings tend to be lagging indicators. Use as one signal among many.

Earnings

Full quarter-by-quarter history of actuals vs estimates. Switch into compare mode to inspect one metric year-over-year.

Next report

Oct 28, 2026

Q4 FY26 · EPS est $1.60 · Revenue est $1.55B

View

Dividends

$1.15/shareQuarterly8yr growth streakSafe

ODFL pays a dividend with a 0.64% dividend yield, 8 consecutive years of growth, growing at 25.12% annually, covered 4.1× by free cash flow.

Dividend Yield

0.64%

Annual Div / Share

$1.15

5yr CAGR

+25.12%

Doubles every ~3.1yr

Payout Ratio

21.83%

Safe

Dividend Growth Rate

3yr CAGR

+15.31%

5yr CAGR

+25.12%

Dividend Safety

10/10Safe

Dividend History

Annualized dividend cycles per share

YearAnnual DivYoY

2026$1.15+4.5%

2025$1.10+12.2%

2024$0.98+30.7%

2023$0.75+36.4%

2022$0.55+46.7%

2021$0.38+32.4%

2020$0.28+32.8%

Income Projection

Invest

Growth rate:

Reinvest dividends

Today

$6/yr

$1/mo

In 5 yrs

$11/yr+76%

$1/mo

In 10 yrs

$20/yr+211%

$2/mo

Today	In 5 yrs	In 10 yrs
$6/yr $1/mo	$11/yr+76% $1/mo	$20/yr+211% $2/mo

Long-range projections use a capped 12% annual growth assumption.

Yield-on-cost grows from 0.64% → 1.98% over 10yr

Analysis

Dividend Strengths

Well-covered by free cash flow

The dividend is covered 4.1× by free cash flow, indicating the company generates sufficient cash to sustain and potentially grow the payout without straining its finances.

Strong dividend growth rate

The 5-year CAGR of 25.12% meaningfully outpaces inflation, compounding real income growth for long-term holders.

Risks to Watch

No strong risk signal stands out from the latest period pair.